Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[mb018538]

For my tuppence worth (which isn't worth much I know!) I'd say the ECM tonight is one of the better runs this winter. If only for the fact that some actual cold air is covering the UK in a fairly reliable timeframe! We haven't seen much of that have we! Sure it's nothing exceptional, but it would certainly result in some the white stuff covering parts of the UK.

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Mucka  and NorthWestSnow having opposite ideas

Well yes and no, there is going to be a cold snap, im just not convinced looking at ECM operational it will be sustained.:)

[northwestsnow]

Anyway, ECM is an improvement on the 0z run afterall.

Its going to get colder for sure, the question is how much colder and how sustained it will be

[winterof79]

She's stayed on course today

Looking goood.

[ukpaul]

What would help is if people qualify within their post what they mean by good or bad, it will save confusion. One person's good is another's not so good, whether that be IMBY-ism, personal preference or just the mood they're in...... 

Anyway, the Arctic high is holding very strongly via EMS's interpretation of things which might be a decent building block to have, even if it might initially push systems through Greenland.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well yes and no, there is going to be a cold snap, im just not convinced looking at ECM operational it will be sustained.:)

Lol! the ECM T216hrs is fine. The Euro troughing helps and the PV is being pulled ne, the 240hrs should be okay.

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well yes and no, there is going to be a cold snap, im just not convinced looking at ECM operational it will be sustained.:)

 

Yup we need Atlantic ridge and WAA into Greenland really for sustained cold and ECM is another toppler albeit a worthwhile one.

JMA not going for it either

As things stand we are looking at a cold snap at least with potential for upgrades. Don't want to see energy leaking under SW tip of Greenland.

Edited January 4, 2016 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

Yup we need Atlantic ridge and WAA into Greenland rally for sustained cold and ECM is another toppler albeit a worthwhile one.

JMA not going for it either

As things stand we are looking at a cold snap at least with potential for upgrades.

Agreed mucka, if we would have been offered these kind of charts before christmas we would have jumped at them.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lol! the ECM T216hrs is fine. The Euro troughing helps and the PV is being pulled ne, the 240hrs should be okay.

Fingers crossed, i will for sure bow to your superior knowledge but i'd be putting money on the high toppling towards the UK at 240

[tight isobar]

That large lobe Canadian vortex. ..

P###ed on the parade and started shutting the door on any pronounced block!

But fully expect changes in the region in coming days .

[Mucka]

LOL my upstream reading radar is well off because I didn't see bite two coming, sustained cold from there.

[Captain Shortwave]

Solid ECM with some wintry weather for many areas during week 2.

A reload predicted by the ECM for day 11 onwards with low pressure slipping south east with the Atlantic high rebuilding.

Some 850 charts

Edited January 4, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed mucka, if we would have been offered these kind of charts before christmas we would have jumped at them.

I am jumping now,

[booferking]

Reload anybody and maybe a better Greenland high 240 onwards perhaps.

 

And 4 day northerly to boot i would take your and off for that right now.

Edited January 4, 2016 by booferking

[Day 10]

For me not a great run but a good run. From 168 onward winds generally start to come from a northerly direction, temp starts to drop and snow chances increase, plenty to be pleased with for coldies tonight.

And the 240 that high ain't a toppler

Edited January 4, 2016 by Minus 10

[Polar Maritime]

Sensible discussion please, No 1 liners. Otherwise helpful posts will get lost..Thanks.

Edited January 4, 2016 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Reload anybody and maybe a better Greenland high 240 onwards perhaps.

You would think so wouldn't you, so long as the Icelandic shortwave plays ball it should slide SE. Could be quite snowy as well depending on any warm sectors it brings with it.

All FI tribulations.

Just give me the solid atlantic ridge and WAA into Greenland 1st attempt, I've had enough model drama for one season.  

Edited January 4, 2016 by Mucka

[northwestsnow]

Good call mr nick sussex

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

End decently enough although one could argue its a 'part topple ' from the 216 chart

All in all very happy though, its going to get cold with snow for some, lets get the cold in place and worry later:)

[nick sussex]

Well the ECM gets there at the end. The key is really the flow re-amplifying over the eastern seaboard at T216hrs, if you follow the movement of the PV to the nw from T192 to T216hrs then you can see theres no chance of the block toppling because the PV energy is moving away.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

For me not a great run but a good run. From 168 onward winds generally start to come from a northerly direction, temp starts to drop and snow chances increase, plenty to be pleased with for coldies tonight.

And the 240 that high ain't a toppler

That's this mornings ecm buddy

happy with the charts again today,the more consistancy the better,plus we are getting a wee bit closer.

Edited January 4, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[mb018538]

Some absolutely brutal cold shunted down the Midwest over in the states on this run! Bone chilling 850s down to -24c!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2016010412/ECH0-216.GIF?04-0

[Cheshire Freeze]

Despite the day 10 ECM chart (which is la la land) we've taken a step away from a sustained N'ly in the more realistic time frames tonight. What is a worry is that chunk of vortex shown to blow up in the Canadian sector around days 9&10. It's on the GFS op, control and now the ECM. We could quite easily have had a much different (zonal) day 10 chart on that ECM run rather than the outcome it plumps for.

[bluearmy]

The mobile Atlantic amplification looks favoured for the time being. I'm not seeing any strong evidence for ridging through Greenland though that isn't to say it won't be possible at all. A lot of pressure from the Canadian lobe of the vortex means that a sustained height rise is more likely around Iceland eastwards if it to happen.

certainly going to feel a lot more seasonal and i suspect Exeter waiting for the overnight extended ens runs before changing  the gist of their 6/10 day output.

we have no idea if MOGREPS sees this. If it doesn't, they will stay ultra cautious. 

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Good call mr nick sussex

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

End decently enough although one could argue its a 'part topple ' from the 216 chart

All in all very happy though, its going to get cold with snow for some, lets get the cold in place and worry later:)

Whether it verifies is another matter! You can't have a part topple it either does or doesn't! lol It was fun to see it pull victory from the jaws of defeat but I don't think its very good for the stress levels of members here.

 

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well the ECM gets there at the end. The key is really the flow re-amplifying over the eastern seaboard at T216hrs, if you follow the movement of the PV to the nw from T192 to T216hrs then you can see theres no chance of the block toppling because the PV energy is moving away.

The block certainly doesn't topple but the original ridge does in a sense with energy pushing under the tip of Greenland which conversely helps sharpen the pattern behind.

I am happy that the upstream remains amplified to give us a second chance but weary that the 1st attempt doesn't really succeed in fully cutting off the Atlantic.

Turns out to be a stonking 10 day chart anyway which I guess is what counts in the end.

Edited January 4, 2016 by Mucka