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Model output discussions pm 31/12/15


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well it's a new year and it's starting on a drier and cooler note but the models are showing yet more rain and strengthening winds across much of the UK this weekend and staying unsettled next week too so a further risk of flooding!:(

About right that frosty.

With fergies update yesterday its hard to see anything else for the next week to 10 days.We need a pattern change , soon.

Just when will that Atlantic give us a break?

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
5 hours ago, forecaster said:

The temperature news from the latest EC32:

Below average for 4th - 10th, then above average thereafter. It also makes all of northern Europe, eastern Europe and half of Russia above average as well.

Weren't there times in previous runs where it had all those places being above average for the week 4th-10th January as well?

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Just now, northwestsnow said:

About right that frosty.

With fergies update yesterday its hard to see anything else for the next week to 10 days.We need a pattern change , soon.

Just when will that Atlantic give us a break?

Indeed, New Year but same old problems, dire output again, especially for the flood affected areas...feel so sorry for them all!

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Frosty. said:

Indeed, New Year but same old problems, dire output again, especially for the flood affected areas...feel so sorry for them all!

Me too.I guess we just got to be patient,and hope.

Just seems the few oportunities we get for some decent blocking the atlantic revs up another gear.

Perhaps those up north have a few chances next week in the PM flow, Doesn't look like being sustained though if ecm/gfs are anywhere near correct

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Happy New Year to all

Jeez these years are going far too quickly!

In terms of todays outputs it looks like that deep cold associated with the shortwave running out of Norway is going to put paid to chances for anything but a cold snap. It's ironic of course that this feature and associated cold is the main problem but anyway in terms of the outputs it does look like a strong signal to drop a chunk of the PV and associated low pressure into the mid Atlantic at T144hrs.

Before that though there are still some detail differences between the outputs, amongst the rather underwhelming outputs there is still a chance for some snow more especially on the UKMO, this manages to carve a bit more amplitude upstream with the Azores ridge extension almost managing to separate the UK low from the PV chunk and troughing.

Although the UK is unable to tap into any deep cold theres still a chance that the rain may turn to snow on the northern flank of the low as it slips se, higher ground more especially and away from windward coasts.

The ECM less so and the GFS firmly doesn't want to know.

The angle of the next Atlantic attack could still change so there might be some rain preceded by snow more especially for the ne of the UK.

Thereafter its likely that troughing will sit over the UK and then we wait to see what the tropospheric response will be to the MJO which is still progressing.

Judging by the ECM De Bilt ensembles just before mid month theres a large spread in both temps and wind directions with a cluster moving towards the nw, if cold is going to arrive it would be more likely with a displacement of the Azores high to the nw , troughing to the east/ne, this pattern would tie in with NCEP suggestions of nor'easter type lows in the eastern USA, if you have sufficient amplitude which is possible with the MJO movement then these lows over there can help promote a ridge to the east by way of WAA towards Greenland.

Edited by nick sussex
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

the ens remain pretty consistent. the atlantic as predicted will come storming through and ironically, the ecm 00z assists it with a chunk of vortex from the east getting close to ne scotland. this serves to draw the upper trough ne when coldies want it headed se.

anyway, in line with expectations quite wet over the next 10 days or so (less TM air involved than the past month so the rain 'not as wet' as it has been). some transient ridges and some lee northerlies possible. i would highlight approaching mid month (as per a few days ago) as the next opportunity for any widespread lowland snowfall as the trough gets over scandi and there is a chance that the follow on could be delayed by a mid atlantic ridge. that could develop in a number of ways and no point analysing in detail. my punt for mid month is for a quieter spell over the uk to be as likely as a zonal so some hope for the saturated parts of the country. that quieter spell could well be chilly, especially nearer the se as per a fair number of ecm ens for london illustrated on the 12z yesterday.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Looking at the precipitation totals the flooding risk could transfer down to the south and south west as we progress through next week

162-777UK.GIF?01-0192-777UK.GIF?01-0240-777UK.GIF?01-0

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Just a reminder that there is a moaning thread/Winter thread open, So lets continue to only discuss what the Model Outputs are showing in here thanks.

PM.

 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

The day ten anomalies this morning show no indication of any let up in the unsettled westerly regime  but they still diverge in the ext period with the GEFs still pushing height rises in the eastern Atlantic whilst the ecm is having none of it although it wouldn't take a great deal to shift this position. The EC32, although in agreement with the ecm, does hint at the HP pushing north just after this so a drier more settled period is not out of the question.

gefs_z500a_nh_61.thumb.png.a8399ff4b3076

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
8 hours ago, marksiwnc said:

What has GP been predicting???  Sorry but I'm a novice 

A cool down from mid month. Cyclonic tendency towards a northerly influence first of all and then blocking highs to our north west. He isn't allowed to forecast on here beyond 4 weeks, but my spidey sense tells me that very high levels of angular momentum over a Nino pattern  is making him see a cold start to February. Analog year 1983 though I reckon there's a bit of 2010 in there too.

Glosea5 apparently seeing a continuation of westerly and milder than average through to months end.

So a fairly stark difference. However GP is not often wrong, unlike numerical medium to long range forecasting tools. Human still better than computer in my book. My money is on a spell of colder to cold weather therefore arriving before too much longer....

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
7 minutes ago, Catacol said:

A cool down from mid month. Cyclonic tendency towards a northerly influence first of all and then blocking highs to our north west. He isn't allowed to forecast on here beyond 4 weeks, but my spidey sense tells me that very high levels of angular momentum over a Nino pattern  is making him see a cold start to February. Analog year 1983 though I reckon there's a bit of 2010 in there too.

Glosea5 apparently seeing a continuation of westerly and milder than average through to months end.

So a fairly stark difference. However GP is not often wrong, unlike numerical medium to long range forecasting tools. Human still better than computer in my book. My money is on a spell of colder to cold weather therefore arriving before too much longer....

Couldn't agree more with your last paragraph Catacol.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough

It is probably a good thing that the 06z isn't the most well renowned model output for getting things right.

gfs-0-162.png?6Modele GFS - Carte prévisions

ouch, gusts in excess of 100mph into Western Scotland and Northern Ireland.

A wet week ahead for most though hills in the north and perhaps low levels across north east Scotland could see some snow.

Otherwise not a great start to 2016 at least for our locale.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Crikey, t'would be a tad blowy if that verified 

 

image.png

Anyone for a game of  mid Atlantic darts?

 

 

image.png

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

The GFS 6z continues to show an unsettled/possibly stormy Westerly flow into week 2, But cooler than recent weeks with the Jet slightly further South dragging in some Pm air at times from the N/W. So temps looking more average for the time of year especially for the North where any precipitation could be wintry at times with elevation. And more storms to keep tabs on..

a.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Crikey, t'would be a tad blowy if that verified 

 

image.png

The Vortex not looking strong over the souther tip of Greenland to my eyes... also is it a good thing that it looks like its relocating  toward Scandy??

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

The Vortex not looking strong over the souther tip of Greenland to my eyes... also is it a good thing that it looks like its relocating  toward Scandy??

The PV in that locale is not going to do us any favours at all, not for cold or drier weather. 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Who's up for an R.J.S 'Snow Hurricane' special on the 8th..

a.pngb.pngc.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The PV in that locale is not going to do us any favours at all, not for cold or drier weather. 

ok thanks for that.... got to say the upcoming period is looking very disturbed indeed....

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
11 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

It's repeated later but for the south, with wind gusts of 120-140km/hr 

i wouldn't totally discount these storms. 

image.gif

Indeed iceberg, We can't discount them, the last one looked unlikely but it hit Iceland luckily rather than us

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset

Only got time to look at the first 10 gef members out to t168 but 7-8 out of the 10 have winds somewhere between 100-140km for the uk between t120 and t168. Might well be an odds on event now....

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl

Morning and a HNY to you.:)

We have removed a few off topic posts and some banter type posts have been moved over to here https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84481-winters-moans-ramps-chat-and-banter/

as PM asked earlier please only post here if your content includes model discussion.Any off topic posts will likely be removed to keep this thread tidy.

Thanks all.

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