Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

bugger....

As bad as that chart looks at face value. The High can't move South, East or North, it would I wager move North West as the PV core moves East. I think a proper Northerly would follow that.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Think we get the picture Crewe.Personally I'm not looking further than 5 days.As GP said its fruitless with the change taking place high up.

Changes might be taking place RE Arctic heights etc (indeed hemispherically we're a long way from December) however Steve is right in what he says- we're not going to see a Greenland high magically pop up from here on in (within the 10 day period). It is what it is....a toppler (not a very good one at that) with not the coldest air to tap in to in the first place. Many places won't see snow based on that ECM run- apart from Scotland and windward coasts if SSTs aren't an issue. Many places will see a few frosts but that's about your lot!

 

[i luv snow]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Changes might be taking place RE Arctic heights etc (indeed hemispherically we're a long way from December) however Steve is right in what he says- we're not going to see a Greenland high magically pop up from here on in (within the 10 day period). It is what it is....a toppler (not a very good one at that) with not the coldest air to tap in to in the first place. Many places won't see snow based on that ECM run- apart from Scotland and windward coasts if SSTs aren't an issue. Many places will see a few frosts but that's about your lot!

 

Based on that particular run maybe, but not on the previous runs or the runs to come I would imagine. Still, changes to come. I don't have an issue with 9/10 day charts being posted but when people so to remember they aren't gospel, and that isn't exactly how things will pan out and potentially very different to how things will.

Edited January 5, 2016 by i luv snow

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

please post something showing a westerly air stream as I can't see that this afternoon.Thanks

For all intents and purposes, this is westerly- air sourced from the Atlantic over the top of the high

 

[SMU]

A split in the models tonights

its the JMA & UKMO v the GFS & ECM

the angle & ridging at 144 then manifests at 192

ECM flat as a witches T*T

the JMA / UK Met more amplified

Form horse the middle ground

3/4 day toppler with options post that

s

Edited January 5, 2016 by Steve Murr

[IDO]

Plenty of record breaking cold will spill into mid-latitudes from this episode but again it looks like when the music stops the UK is in the wrong place. This is always a risk, even when that "torpedo" shows up on the radar, that the blocks will just be in the wrong place. The NE regions of the US are going to see some startling cold if the ECM verifies:

All due to the cross polar flow backtracking towards a EPO to Russia variety. We get the scraps that get discarded as the cold cannot all move south so some squeezes out to give us 2-3c T850s below average anomalies. Two days ago the ECM promised us some of that action, but since then the usual suspects now under attack!

The moment appears to have gone, and it does look like we are on the wrong side of the cold axis, so all we can hope for is to squeeze the most from this amplification, nothing really cold or brutal like the US, but maybe a brief spill of -6 to -8c uppers for some up north. Then we look for maybe another bite after D10?

[marksiwnc]

As most experienced metrologists have said. Models will play about with different scenarios for a while until the cold arrives.  It's a case of wait and see.  Hopefully by sat,Sunday we will have a better look.  I think it will get cold mid to late next week. Brief warm up and then deeper cold.  

[HammerJack]

I never post in here, but after reading how good the UKMO run was, why be so dispondant over a not so good ECM run. I read the same doom and gloom posts this morning when viewing the 06z run, only for it to turn into a more positive discussion as the day went on. If I remember rightly the ECM was a cracker a few days back.....

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A split in the models tonights

its the JMA & UKMO v the GFS & ECM

the angle & ridging at 144 then manifests at 192

ECM flat as a witches T*T

the JMA / UK Met more amplified

Form horse the middle ground

3/4 day toppler with options post that

s

Ukmo and Jma playing catch up as per usual. I find they are often 24hrs behind the game, especially at the 144hr timeframe.

[snowice]

15 minutes ago, i luv snow said:

It's a day 9 chart though, so unlikely to verify as such. I still think we are a long way off knowing how this will pan out after the cold next week, however it ends up. These runs have had the mood go up and down like a yo-yo, it's as if people forget the previous run or other models. Trends are trends yes, but too early to write it off yet.

I agree look at the last 24hrs they will flip again until I see two consecutive days of cross model agreement I wouldn't worry 

I wouldn't be surprised to see 00zs change in the morning?

[Liam J]

People looking at day 10 charts and saying long route to cold from there  What about before we get to day 10... Looks like the cold has arrived before day 10 to me and more importantly looking much drier for the flood affected regions... Cold days, frosty nights with snowfall possible - OK so the Thames isn't going to freeze over and there won't be 10 foot snow drifts, but are these charts not better than the ridiculously mild and extremely wet December just gone?  

 

[blizzard81]

Just now, snowice said:

I agree look at the last 24hrs they will flip again until I see two consecutive days of cross model agreement I wouldn't worry 

I wouldn't be surprised to see 00zs change in the morning?

I admire your optimism but after many years of model watching, I find that if the models start to trend from a cold solution to a less cold solution, they stay in that direction. I am hoping that this is one of those very, very rare ocassions when they do a double flip.

[Tim Brawn]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I admire your optimism but after many years of model watching, I find that if the models start to trend from a cold solution to a less cold solution, they stay in that direction. I am hoping that this is one of those very, very rare ocassions when they do a double flip.

on that basis how do you ever get back to cold !!

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

People looking at day 10 charts and saying long route to cold from there  What about before we get to day 10... Looks like the cold has arrived before day 10 to me and more importantly looking much drier for the flood affected regions... Cold days, frosty nights with snowfall possible - OK so the Thames isn't going to freeze over and there won't be 10 foot snow drifts, but are these charts not better than the ridiculously mild and extremely wet December just gone?  

 

Most on here are looking for a prolonged cold spell, not transitory. The main reason for the despondency is because the ecm has has back tracked from yesterday when it was showing the best synoptics for a few years.

[Coopsy]

2 minutes ago, Tim Brawn said:

on that basis how do you ever get back to cold !!

cold, less cold, warm, less warm, cold, very cold? -/\/\- lol 

[Sweatyman]

12 minutes ago, snowice said:

I agree look at the last 24hrs they will flip again until I see two consecutive days of cross model agreement I wouldn't worry 

I wouldn't be surprised to see 00zs change in the morning?

Yep will get up in the morning and all will have changed!

[Ali1977]

ECM ensembles may discount the Op yet...not long till they are out.

[warrenb]

And the ecm verifies at 10 days around 30% percent of the time. The atmospheric juggling continues.

[snowice]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I admire your optimism but after many years of model watching, I find that if the models start to trend from a cold solution to a less cold solution, they stay in that direction. I am hoping that this is one of those very, very rare ocassions when they do a double flip.

Well if it were t+96 you might have a point but at +144hrs I wouldn't trow in the towel just yet.

[Southender]

I don't know. As I haven't seen a flake of snow for 3 winters, I would take even a 1 day dusting with both hands and run!

[northwestsnow]

ECM looks cold and wintry to me, im still wondering if the models are pointing to some sort of block to the NE longer term.

[blizzard81]

Just now, warrenb said:

And the ecm verifies at 10 days around 30% percent of the time. The atmospheric juggling continues.

The problem though is that it is very evident that the ecm is flatter at the 144 timescale. It's verification at that distance is much higher.

[Methuselah]

18 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ukmo and Jma playing catch up as per usual. I find they are often 24hrs behind the game, especially at the 144hr timeframe.

I don't see how you can reach that conclusion - after all, we're talking about events 5 or 6 days in the future...

[ANYWEATHER]

When a major pattern change is on the way ,models will throw such diverse synoptics, the outlook is indeed much colder, the old adage on here and remember please is let the cold pattern come in and sort out the details then.........

[Paul_1978]

Tonight in here....