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Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

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59 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

well steves post is a popular one even if it flies in the face of the current available data...
 

Lots of moxie from steve, hats off to him:hi: and I'm praying he's right since the MO update left me cold, pardon the pun! Coldies have had the worst first 4 weeks of winter imaginable but the models are looking better....no more blowtorches on the horizon with that bl**dy Saharan sand!

Edited by Frosty.
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Give Steve the benefit of the doubt, the low is slightly further south and so is the cold.

gfs-0-114.png?12
gfs-1-114.png?12

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gfs-0-108.png?12

GFS T108 - much more chance of sliding this time - heights in mid-Atlantic look likely to split the low over Ireland and the low in the west Atlantic

UKMO to T96 is similar, though what's that deeper trough over Norway going to do?

UW96-21.GIF?31-17

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A definite shift towards the 0z ukmo run at 120 !!!!

Maybe not enough of a shift but jet further south :)

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Day 4

GFS

gfs-0-96.png?12

Stalls low pressure over Ireland, it is still in a similar position at day 5 which is a change compared to previous runs. Very cold air edging into Scotland with north east coasts seeing showers from a cyclonic south easterly.

UKMO

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Very different to the morning run with respects to the cold pool over our east, high pressure replaced with a deep area of cold unstable air over Scandinavia.

Well at 4 days out and the models are to be honest struggling to get any kind of consistency.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Well we have been very close (literally) to something cold with the general upcoming pattern, a lot of the ingredients are there and have been for days. The big question is can we nudge things just that little bit further south and west to allow the UK to be affected by the very cold air that is in no doubt coming close.

Its not like Steve is suggesting some huge longwave pattern shift, just that we may well get in on the action that is oh so close anyway.

Will be very interesting to see the 12zs roll out tonight, some small amendments could build to deliver cold to our shores. 

 

Well the latest gfs is nudging the pattern south

6z to 12z

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.a23ccea43dd7378490gfsnh-0-114.thumb.png.d2d3c47acd79554107

 

 

Edited by Polar Climate
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The difference is astonishing at just 5 days away!! :shok:

12z

gfs-0-126.png?12

06z

gfs-0-132.png?6

Edited by PerfectStorm
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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Lots of moxie and I'm praying Steve is right since the MO update left me cold, pardon the pun! Coldies have had the worst first 4 weeks of winter imaginable but the models are looking better....no more blowtorches on the horizon with that bl**dy Saharan sand!

well even i am looking for at least one cold spell, not that ill like it but i believe its necessary . i think the best that could come isnt the full blown easterly as described by steve, but maybe a few extra hours of cold , maybe a day , but not the pattern change suggested. we will see.

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Cold gets much further in on this GFS run, though I imagine it will start getting pushed back from this point:

gfs-1-144.png?12

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GFS started well, but there is no way the block to the NE is going to hold off the sheer strength of the Atlantic, best we can hope for at 144 is some sort of disruption and the jet splitting, what we dont want to see is the azores high ridging back into Europe!!!!

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS started well, but there is no way the block to the NE is going to hold off the sheer strength of the Atlantic, best we can hope for at 144 is some sort of disruption and the jet splitting, what we dont want to see is the azores high ridging back into Europe!!!!

I remember a few years ago a relatively small area of high pressure holding off the Atlantic....

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big backtrack from ukmo this evening, 144 chart does not look inspiring with another Icelandic low waiting to swoop !!!!

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Day 6 charts

GFS

gfs-0-144.png?12

Slack east/south easterly with fronts approaching from the west, there will be some leading edge snow, possibly blizzards before turning back to rain. The front shown later on is very active due to the tight thermal gradient.

UKMO

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Probably mostly dry with a slack flow across the UK, a few coastal showers which could be wintry in the north. That cold pool  over Norway stops any westwards extension of the Russian high which results in less forcing on the extended Atlantic trough which causes the very different result.

 

As I said before we can't get a model to agree with itself at 4 days out so at this point take it as another throw at the dartboard blindfolded rather than a particular trend.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Nice little wedge of high pressure just east of Greenland on the GFS at 168 hrs.

 

gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.7c58b076d48ae937ee

 

 

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Well after a more promising start to the evening its kind of gone a bit pete tong, GFS now promoting pressure rises across Europe (again) and UKMO is a big downgrade on the 0z run.

Guess the wait goes on.

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144hrs UKMO & GFS side by side the pattern over the Atlantic isn't a million miles apart, GFS has a deeper trough. 

ukmo1441.thumb.gif.64c63e102c7c501dd88efgfs144.thumb.png.5dc42f516bb275b575467bc

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7 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Nice little wedge of high pressure just east of Greenland on the GFS at 168 hrs.

 

gfsnh-0-168.thumb.png.7c58b076d48ae937ee

 

 

I am thinking that is important to SM predictions. Not there this morning but it needs to elongate and grow to effect us. I may well be wrong though. I think it's become to be known as the murr sausage lol.

Edited by That ECM

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Bold call Mr. Murr, I do hope you are correct, but I'm not buying it... YET!

 

I know GFS always deepens the Atlantic, but it just looks too strong to me, not minor corrections needed, but large scale ones. We need the jet to get lost down to Spain for a while. That would be a nice start!

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Not bad not bad everything getting shunted further south with each run!!am thinking the low in the atlantic will slide a lot more south east than east to west as its showing now!!its been a good start to the evening lets see what mr ecm brings!!

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I think Santa must have delivered a job lot of rose tinted specs this Xmas reading some of the stuff on here!

disappointing all round I'd say. The cold pool looks like retreating and being bottled back up north both here and in the states. Blame that big El Niño monster for this tripe! Even with a shift in pressure pattern we still end up on losing side :-(

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Just had a look at the GFS archive runs for the 2nd of Jan! It wasn't until T90 that it picked up the pattern correctly. If nothing else this re-enforces the point that with such a set up we need to be concentrating a lot more on the 0-120 timeframe rather than beyond.

If we are in a standard UK pattern, with a zonal flow and a Euro high we can look further, but in this pattern type we must reign in our expectations of how acurate the Op runs as well as the Ensemble suite will be.

 

Here are the archived GFS charts for the 2nd

from 144 through to 48

gfs-0-144.thumb.png.caf8d28d31ccc72b7edcgfs-0-120.thumb.png.fe4b819018b9a05dccd3gfs-0-90.thumb.png.a8d52e92ddf63963fd5e7gfs-0-72.thumb.png.0828566a9d4e0f252b55fgfs-0-48.thumb.png.4bfb1fade4444b0448a4f

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