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Model output discussions pm 31/12/15


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

Struggling to see the issue this morning.

GFS is definitely one of its milder members. So poor output but likely to change.

UKMO looks very good to me at 144 

as for the ECM, still very cold uppers across the uk at 192, 216 & 240. Slight change in its output, but anyone who truly expected the same or better output than yesterday's 12z was always going to be disappointed this morning.

so I still remain cautiously optimistic about a decent cold spell starting next week. Or as optimistic as you can be 7-8 days out.

GFS 

image.gif

UKMO 144

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ECM 850's

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Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

Looking at the GEFS and the ECM the critical initial cross polar flow attempt now very strongly moving towards a EPO>Kara Block>Russian link up to various degrees. The GEFS mean at D6:

D6 :gensnh-21-1-144.thumb.png.fbd3ba60e15fc3 D8: gensnh-21-1-192.thumb.png.c6c7348e9c59a7

Can we then get the Atlantic Ridge and the Kara/Arctic block to attempt a connect from around D8 and 9. Nothing definitive at this range but with the US trough likely to blow up from the initial CAA from the first attempted cross polar flow we really do need a solid block in place by D8 to slow down that US trough mobility. It is not an Atlantic steam train so if the right combo is in place then we could get a more active longer cold spell with the Atlantic ridge further west. No clear instructions from the GEFS at D9 yet with most options on the table but the biggest cluster at 50% is the Atlantic train pushing any block E/SE:

weather_model_gfs_ensemble_-_europe_-_su

No strong conclusions after D7 yet though a five day spell at least of seasonal cold looks likely, mostly dry as even with the best case scenario, getting the UK into the outer realms of that Scandi trough (for snow purposes) looks a tricky one IMO. More runs needed to see where we go from D7. Nothing ruled in or out, but we need a shift the right way in the next couple of days to get a snow potential in what looks a nailed cold snap/spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Detail aside.. No change this morning from the GFS or ECMWF, With a much colder pattern projected by mid-Month drawing a Northerly type flow. Models are still toying with heights in the Arctic so continue to expect wild swings into the extended runs.

a.pnga.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport

From Twitter

 

Quick shift in the overnight EC32 with colder wx signaled towards mid-month and then perhaps a more settled spell (high pressure) after that.

 

Obviously EC32 could quite easily switch back in next update so proceed with caution

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Maybe wait for ECM ensembles? Before the toys are thrown from the pram.

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
10 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

From Twitter

 

Quick shift in the overnight EC32 with colder wx signaled towards mid-month and then perhaps a more settled spell (high pressure) after that.

 

Obviously EC32 could quite easily switch back in next update so proceed with caution

Sounds good a cold high moving around our vicinity with a smashed up vortex leading to a higher probability of polar outbreaks

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
18 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

From Twitter

 

Quick shift in the overnight EC32 with colder wx signaled towards mid-month and then perhaps a more settled spell (high pressure) after that.

 

Obviously EC32 could quite easily switch back in next update so proceed with caution

indeed Snow Balls, I've lost count how many times the EC32 update has changed, so although good as a guide, this is certainly a very fluid few days/week(s) ahead, and the best option for us is to keep an eye on the models, to see what the trends point to in the post 5-6 day ouput and actually deciding where fl starts, which for me is D4 right now. IMO of course.  

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Northerly on the ECM monthly control around day 8-10 and thereafter it looks similar to the day 10 ECM OP with a strong high SW of the UK but closer to the UK on the monthly with air being drawn from the Azores round the high pressure for a time. Towards the latter stages of January high pressure to the S/SW with depressions tracking across the north so generally quite unsettled and cool, but there are two more northerly outbreaks one around 23/24th before turning unsettled again and another northerly setting up around the 28-30th, no prolonged cold weather on the ECM monthly but I only have access to the control run, beginning of February sees high pressure centred around France then Germany and southerly winds for the UK.  

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

So ECM ENS are out and pretty much backs the OP

And from the point of interest is cold throughout the later stages, but looking like it wants to push the Atlantic High East towards our shores

So will this be a trend we continue to see this evening, or will we be back to sustained type block. I shall not be guessing.

EDH1-168.GIF?05-12EDH1-192.GIF?05-12EDH1-216.GIF?05-12EDH1-240.GIF?05-12

 

EDH0-168.GIF?05-12EDH0-192.GIF?05-12EDH0-216.GIF?05-12EDH0-240.GIF?05-12

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, cold, cold and errrr......cold. I am, unashamedly, a cold fan.
  • Location: South Manchester. Summer=LV-426. Other=Azeroth

https://twitter.com/liamdutton?lang=en

Untitlednewwetter.thumb.jpg.bca72c86ec35

 

Liam Dutton is excited :)

Edited by simshady
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

The Heights coming out of Newfoundland seem further west and stronger compared to the 00z, which for me can only be a good thing surely. Im expecting a better run, even though the pesky sw is delaying the cold getting to us.

00z gfsnh-0-144.png?0

06z gfsnh-0-138.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

One little point I'm struggling to understand, the low off eastern Canada looks perfectly alligned to me to pump WAA up western Greenland, yet the high is struggling to ridge far north, yet past experiance tells me it should be lacating to Greenland ??

 

gfsnh-0-162.thumb.png.5d4b0d027528a68e4b

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Posted
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe frosts, warm sunny summers,
  • Location: Penwortham nr Preston, Lancashire
10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The Heights coming out of Newfoundland seem further west and stronger compared to the 00z, which for me can only be a good thing surely. Im expecting a better run, even though the pesky sw is delaying the cold getting to us.

00z gfsnh-0-144.png?0

06z gfsnh-0-138.png?6

Yep, at t168, energy off coming off the north east seaboard is heading up the west side of Greenland rather than getting through under underneath Greenland, hopefully better to follow in FI :)

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Better heights pushing into Greenland on the 6z GFS and the Atlantic not as progressive. Which gives a better Northerly flow with -11 uppers touching the far North..

a.pnga.pnga.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
  • Location: Reigate, Surrey
12 minutes ago, KTtom said:

One little point I'm struggling to understand, the low off eastern Canada looks perfectly alligned to me to pump WAA up western Greenland, yet the high is struggling to ridge far north, yet past experiance tells me it should be lacating to Greenland ??

 

I think that part of the problem is the existing depth of cold over Greenland making it hard for WAA to push that away - if it's to happen, it could need a couple of attempts as per last night's ECM I think. We've also got the core of the upper level stratospheric vortex smack bang over the top of Greenland on the 6z.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=210&mode=10&carte=1

Edited by beng
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Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

The key is WAA, the failed easterly we are in now is because the WAA went up to the artic over us pumping up the high to far to the east, you want the WAA to go up over eastern Greenland.

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Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

And collapse complete joke this is turning out to be high should pump right into Greenland from the Atlantic and to top it off the Arctic high should help this also but we get nothing out of both this little island is so frustrating sometimes everything has to be perfect for us to get proper prolonged cold weather.

I know its one run but the trend is setting in this is going to be brief we need a big performance tonight from UKMO & ECM to turn this around and make me believe.

Edited by booferking
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

I would say that with a chart like this, the GFS is errmmm ..... Struggling with fl, which for me is still +96

gfsnh-0-216.png?6

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Some very cold air pushing South. Yes Karlos, The devil continues to be in detail with the models still resolving the heights over the Arctic. 

a.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
17 minutes ago, warrenb said:

The key is WAA, the failed easterly we are in now is because the WAA went up to the artic over us pumping up the high to far to the east, you want the WAA to go up over eastern Greenland.

Everything I see in the models today is in agreement with the met office update from yesterday. A possibility for a brief cold spell preceded and followed by mild weather. 

 

Any news from the MJO?

Edited by karyo
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

reload anyone :rofl:

gfsnh-0-348.png?6

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