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Model output discussions pm 31/12/15


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

Cheers MWB!

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
1 hour ago, M1245 said:

So with the models looking as they are at the moment, when would we start to see/feel a difference in regards to cooler/colder weather?

 

Tomorrow looking pretty chilly for Eastern Scotland with temperatures within a few degrees of freezing.

 

24-580UK.thumb.GIF.f707071472cb3f549b544

 

Meteociel.fr - Modèle GFS pour le Royaume-Uni/Irlande, résolution 0.25 degré

 

The much colder air looks to arrive from the North at the beginning of next week.

ECM0-168.thumb.GIF.8adfcebc4e204a4f9c700

 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

What a tweet from ian fergie!!!!maybe something special is about to happen from a cold and snowy perspective!!!maybe the models are underplaying the cold at the moment!!

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Posted
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, the very hot and the very cold.
  • Location: Bishops Cleeve, Cheltenham. 300 M ASL

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35228964

good to see John Hammond getting in on act. Winters coming !! 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

I'm hoping a decent Northery turns into an Easterly, first get Europe/Western Russia cold and bring in the beast...In reality though, crisp dry frosty morning would also be very welcome....Lets hope for a nice pub run - so far so good.

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Fascinating conditions in the Netherlands, thanks for posting Vorticity.

I can certainly verify that freezing rain is dangerous as I have discovered (painfully) on my cycle commute before.  

Looks like increasing possibilities for a UK cold shot now.  

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Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
15 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

"Computer models are beginning to agree" - JH

Weather for the week ahead worth a watch:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35228964

It can be said decidedly the UK is going to experience a cold plunge the depth of cold remains unknown as well as longevity. Again not completely relevant in here but there's 'optimism' for sure as it is coming from the experts, implying we ain't barking up the wrong tree. :D

image.thumb.png.8db7711f156476beea347073image.thumb.png.a96168c331718da2429bbe58

 

 

'optimism' from our long standing experts on NW as well Dan!:)

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

With all the talk of potential cold, just thought i'd throw this little offering into the mix to keep our resident mildies happy. Its ptrb 13 from the GEM ensembles.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=13&ech=384&mode=1&carte=0

Ironically this arrives despite high pressure being resident over Greenland. I don't for a minute think this will occur as will be the wildest of warm outliers, but its an interesting chart nonetheless as it would surely be a record breaker for warmth in January unless there was some form of inversion present. I'm not sure i've ever seen a chart with 850s this high in January!

Strange times!

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

WAA looks like linking with the Arctic high on the run, to me looking much better.

Edited by Ali1977
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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

WAA looks like linking with the Arctic high on the run, tommlooking much better.

 

Yes,looks like a pub run cracker coming up.:)

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
11 minutes ago, knocker said:

I wasn't trying to put an 'uncold' spin on it as you so eloquently put it but merely representing what the ext. said at T360. And I maintain that what I said was correct as indicated by this chart.

eps_t850_natl_61.thumb.png.79e9c69afdc3b

It rather amuses me that people are very intent on accusing me of ulterior motives and yet conveniently forget that I actually mooted this very scenario in a post a couple of days ago.

 

Yes Knocker, absolutely right, the chart does not show extreme cold over the UK, just possibilities for it. Thank you for posting these charts as you see them, appreciated by many.

I would argue the signs do look cold in D7-D12, though, if you look at all the output together, including the NOAA chart posted above.

If anyone really did want to do a mild ramp though ... (credit to poster above for the link!!) ... 21C in London on this???!

gens-13-0-384.png

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

GFS has got stuck, probably foreseen +168h and shocked itself. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

Looking flatter across the Atlantic at this point compared to the 12Z. We really see to see a low blowing up at the right time over over the NE US as Nick has been saying.

 

gfsnh-0-174.png?18gfsnh-0-174.png?12

 

 

 

Edited by radiohead
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Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

Another attempt at a solution to the North American pattern showing a very different suggestion at 144h. As per NIck Sussex forecasters over there don't appear convinced with any of them apart from it 'meandering around'. Difficult to place any faith in anything either before or beyond that, for this reason.......

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS doing its best to create a drama here but with the PV chunk heading off to Hawaii then even it won't be able to clutch defeat!

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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

I think at this point the 18z is looking much better for sustained cold than 12z.  That ridge from Canada into N pole and the E seaboard set up has for me prolonged ridge from Greenland. No SW spoiler over Iceland and this will allow the GHP to control the Atlantic more

h850t850eu.png

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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