Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

I must say, this isn't bad for a anomaly at day 10

Respective surface chart

 

Certainly a good starting point to be honest. One of the key things to look out for is for as big an area of weak heights as possible forming over Greenland around day 5/6. This will prevent too much cold air transferring from the Siberian lobe to the Canadian sector. By keeping the Canadian lobe weak this should allow a sharper trough to develop upstream which will help build a ridge in the Atlantic. 

Can we build on this then

 

 

 

[lorenzo]

ECM not wishing to put away the Xmas decorations this evening. 1055 Arctic high bossing things seems at the extreme end of the envelope, but a high in this locale has been in play for a fair bit this season, who knows with some added juice it could pull through.

Following GP's illustrative post earlier regarding the AAM state and the crazy plot visible on Schiraldi site, worked up a few composites using the evolution from the Mountain Torque state circa end 3rd of December and then rolled them forward.

Last text figure here...  3.5434,5.811 !!! plotted for the year to show  aam on steroids..

These are built from dates for December 20-31 matching AAM amplitude and also filtered to add ENSO base state.

L-R raw build for last third of December then rolled forward 10 and 20 days.

Same as above except no Nino filter added.

So, busy comparing the D10/20 to what is now visible on the models to see the there or thereabouts of aam influence.

re: WAA, I like the tropopause loops, poetry in motion for wave breaks. infoclimat.fr also has a good one but their server is out just now to locate link. 

In case you want a reminder of what has passed just prior to New Year this is what we are in the process of shifting from...

Right winter, over to you to entertain us in January please..

 

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by lorenzo

[chionomaniac]

On 12/28/2015 at 11:21 PM, chionomaniac said:

Those hoping for something from an easterly are probably likely to be disappointed. However, the Scandi block is the game changer for the whole NH profile. It pretty much transfers to a Kara Sea block with an extending arm towards Scandi, but it is disturbance of the whole NH vortex and transference of a strong positive AO to a strong negative AO that bodes well.

 

We are seeing an unusual disconnect between the upper strat and lower strat profiles. How often will we see a strong Kara Sea high anomaly centred directly below the strongest section of the displaced stratospheric vortex? Especially when the vortex has been at almost record strength?

 

 

Very unusual - as is the whole NH profile and this has been mentioned and discussed earlier in the thread. The Kara high will displace the vortex further away from the pole and the corresponding Canadian high prevent any reorganisation. With the MJO entering phase 8, a possible split in the residual lower strat vortex in the offing and the displaced trop vortex I think that we may be looking in the wrong direction. The ensembles are starting to hint at Greenland blocking by day 15 and I really think that this may be the where the block ends up by mid Jan. Lets see if the ECM weeklies can offer any support?

 

 

So we are now 5-6 days down the line and no surprise to see that the Greenland anomalies are gaining pace. Remember, that the best chance of a significant block to our NW will be one with both heights pushed out from the Arctic that meet a wave of WAA towards the west of Greenland.

 

Btw day 12 EPS showing a strong Scandi trough anomaly aligned with the west based -NAO becoming more central.

Game On.

[chionomaniac]

Also ECM Parallel has a lovely Atlantic block, stronger than current op, by day 10. Jet will not be breaking through there....

[Catacol]

8 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Game On.

Yes.. and in case anyone missed it a few days ago this was Feb 1983 - the last time we had a spike in angular momentum anywhere close to what is coming

 

 

and this was Jan 2010 - an El Nino year with another Jan spike in momentum, not as big as that coming up

[Gibby]

Just back from a New Year Break with friends in the Midlands and thought I'd have a look at the ECM tonight. I almost fell off my chair. I'm pretty sure it will be something of an outlier but with strong support of tonight's 10 day mean which itself is much better than this mornings I feel this time there should be more reason for optimism if it's cold and snow your after than what was shown out East a week ago. Even if it doesn't come off as strongly as shown I'm reasonably confident that a move towards colder weather is likely to develop from the North and not the East from around mid January. See you guys in the morning.

[bluearmy]

17 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Also ECM Parallel has a lovely Atlantic block, stronger than current op, by day 10. Jet will not be breaking through there....

Thats presumably the 00z you are looking at ed!  There is a depression in the west Atlantic which does look like it will break through the Azores /greeny link but at day 10, best to ignore detail. I agree that the overall trend from that run looks good in tandem with the new 12z op. 

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Thats presumably the 00z you are looking at ed!  There is a depression in the west Atlantic which does look like it will break through the Azores /greeny link but at day 10, best to ignore detail. I agree that the overall trend from that run looks good in tandem with the new 12z op. 

Yes, just spotted that thanks, Nick. 

[TomDav]

Some similarities with December 2010

2010

ECM 240

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by TomDav

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, TomDav said:

Some similarities with December 2010

where? 

[Coopsy]

1 minute ago, heccygabber said:

So who thinks these cold charts will verify? I doubt it.

It's a wild goose chase, over and over again

 

a broken watch is right twice a day.....you never know ;-)

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

where? 

The 201...?

[Allseasons-Si]

The ecm height anomaly for day 10,def neg AO signal there

850's at day 10

gfs(P) goes for it at 234 hrs but no link up from the atlantic ridge with the arctic high

..but at 300 hrs,here we go..

so,some sort of agreement,just the timings are a bit different,all looking good

 

 

Edited January 3, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Gibby]

3 minutes ago, heccygabber said:

So who thinks these cold charts will verify? I doubt it.

It's a wild goose chase, over and over again

 

Yes it often is and it maybe again. However, cold spells including Easterlies far more commonly start life off from a Northerly.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

4 minutes ago, heccygabber said:

So who thinks these cold charts will verify? I doubt it.

It's a wild goose chase, over and over again

 

Agreed, it is. That's what makes this time if year so addictive on his forum. I for one look forward to this time of the year and finding these gorgeous looking cold charts the models churn out now and again. Stranger things have happened.

[legritter]

Evening posters ,nice to see some warm hearty posts ,all brought about by some nice looking charts .

all of course at the longer range but they are showing ,lets hope for some good updates over the coming days .

Snow can come from many synoptic set ups as we all know ,we are currently and for the past several weeks been having very amazing weather in the northern hemisphere ,its possible i suppose for this type of pattern to persist for another 8 weeks or so but very unlikely  thats my big straw at present ,so with plenty of winter left heres a toast STellas all round tonight gang ,roll on tomorrows runs ,

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The ecm height anomaly for day 10,def neg AO signal there

850's at day 10

gfs(P) goes for it at 234 hrs but no link up from the atlantic ridge with the arctic high

..but at 300 hrs,here we go..

so,some sort of agreement,just the timings are a bit different,all looking good

 

 

We do see some decent WAA which is repeated on the GFS P. So that's a good sign.

[bluearmy]

ECM ens AO and NAO whilst still in the -2/-3 area for much of the two weeks remain slightly negative at the end of the run. One might expect the lower res ens post day 10 to want to to return the measure less negative but the eps are now more in line with the GEFS and gem ens which hold the neg combo out to the end of their runs and have done for days. (Though again, the measures return towards neutral towards the end of the suites).

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ECM ens AO and NAO whilst still in the -2/-3 area for much of the two weeks remain slightly negative at the end of the run. One might expect the lower res ens post day 10 to want to to return the measure less negative but the eps are now more in line with the GEFS and gem ens which hold the neg combo out to the end of their runs and have done for days. (Though again, the measures return towards neutral towards the end of the suites).

Is it these that you are looking at Blue

the odd member on the AO tanking to -5 with a main cluster of -2 to -3,NAO in the neg too

Edited January 3, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Mucka]

NIMBY posts and we have only one FI Op run to go off?

Those worried that a Northerly won't produce for them, two things.

1. Let's get the cold air over us first, without that there is zero chance and as we know once we have the cold air in place snow can crop up anywhere.

2. If ECM is onto something then it is likely we would end up with a cut off Greenland high which would bring in a Northeasterly and sometimes with a very negative NAO we get high pressure moving back and forth from Greenland and Scandi so there would be ample opportunity for snow down the line.

 

[chionomaniac]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ECM ens AO and NAO whilst still in the -2/-3 area for much of the two weeks remain slightly negative at the end of the run. One might expect the lower res ens post day 10 to want to to return the measure less negative but the eps are now more in line with the GEFS and gem ens which hold the neg combo out to the end of their runs and have done for days. (Though again, the measures return towards neutral towards the end of the suites).

The 12Z ECM Det drops AO to almost -5 but the control hovers around -2/-3. Some of the EPS members are off the scale - lower than -6 lol!

[feno13]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is it these that you are looking at Blue

the odd member on the AO tanking to -5 with a main cluster of -2 to -3,NAO in the neg too

No , they are the gfs forecasts .

[cold snap]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

ECM ens AO and NAO whilst still in the -2/-3 area for much of the two weeks remain slightly negative at the end of the run. One might expect the lower res ens post day 10 to want to to return the measure less negative but the eps are now more in line with the GEFS and gem ens which hold the neg combo out to the end of their runs and have done for days. (Though again, the measures return towards neutral towards the end of the suites).

Just had a look at the Ecm ens ,Shows the ECM operational wasn't a outlier it has support BUT not complete support .

Some more water under the bridge I feel 

 

 

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, feno13 said:

No , they are the gfs forecasts .

Yes,you are right,my bad,still,they are neg which is good

[Methuselah]

Judging by what the models are showing, there's little need for despondency: the MJO is looking like progressing through phases 6,7 and 8; the NAO/AO both look like going negative (I don't know to what extent) and GP's view of February and March, form a teleconnection perspective, look quite positive...

From my recollection of 1975, February, March, April, May - and even early June - can deliver the goods...Today is 03/01/16!!!!

Edited January 3, 2016 by Ed Stone