Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[knocker]

Nor'easter spawns a mid Atlantic ridge

Edited January 2, 2016 by knocker

[Allseasons-Si]

Mooaah!

snow showers piling in off the N sea after 348hrs,let's see if this trend continues.

[nick sussex]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Here we go

this is what we wan't to see in future runs,the gfs has been toying around with this scenario for the last couple of days

 

 

I'm not sure this thread could cope with another easterly drama! This type of high if it actually didn't fall and unseat the rider at the final hurdle is better than the Russian block scenario.

To get a Russian block to retrogress that far west is always like pulling teeth as we've just seen. Although it looks great on the charts it rarely delivers.

At least January is looking more like a proper winter month not the mild tripe that's been masquerading as winter so far.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Looks identical to Feb 1991 charts!! If only it really did happen!

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I'm not sure this thread could cope with another easterly drama! This type of high if it actually didn't fall and unseat the rider at the final hurdle is better than the Russian block scenario.

To get a Russian block to retrogress that far west is always like pulling teeth as we've just seen. Although it looks great on the charts it rarely delivers.

At least January is looking more like a proper winter month not the mild tripe that's been masquerading as winter so far.

Them bites at the cherry Nick spring to mind,we missed the first bite and choacked on the pip lol,at least that first one kept it busy in here to say the least,such drama,now can we have this second bite with ease please

Edited January 2, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[nick sussex]

The Trigger Shortwave help line will need to take on extra staff if the Azores ridging ne scenario turns out to be the right trend!

Can't we just have a nice Greenie high scenario instead!

In reply Allseasons keep that helpline number on speed dial! lol

Edited January 2, 2016 by nick sussex

[Allseasons-Si]

26 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The Trigger Shortwave help line will need to take on extra staff if the Azores ridging ne scenario turns out to be the right trend!

Can't we just have a nice Greenie high scenario instead!

In reply Allseasons keep that helpline number on speed dial! lol

Yes i have the helpline open

i did notice on this run though that there was more of a gap between our low in the atlantic and the one in NE Canada from 144hrs on to establish this block,so one to watch in future runs

 

the gefs toying with the idea of a atlantic ridge too,this also could turn out to be a good run further down the line.

nope,a secondery shortwave developed off the one south of Greenland and scuppered the WAA there

still happy with the op though but lets not take it gospel,as they say ,more runs needed for this second bite

 

Edited January 2, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

So near & yet so far -.......

Steve

Look at the widespread cold, it can't stay away ALL winter...no way.  Great 18 z again, this winter is now getting interesting.  ECM maintains the interest too

 

 

BFTP

Edited January 2, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[WelshSnowFan]

I may be wrong but the chart Steve originally posted was "wind-chill" ? - have a look in top left corner.

WelshSnowFan

[SMU]

24 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Steve

Look at the widespread cold, it can't stay away ALL winter...no way.  Great 18 z again, this winter is now getting interesting

BFTP

Maybe -Maybe not ...

some years like 2010 etc you feel like its a matter of time before the next cold episode, this winter feels a case of not long for the next let down-

we have around 5-7 days to wait now to see if anything comes of the block that develops over eastern canada - whether it can slow the jet enough to then allow for a ridge -

FwIW - 18z shows a classic scandi high development- a risge thrown NNE out of the azozes settling over scandi 

also of note for ref is the debilt ENS has nice cold clustering near the end - days 12-15

I think most of us will take anything at the moment - just 1 air frost here winter to date is a joke.....

 

s

Edited January 2, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, WelshSnowFan said:

I may be wrong but the chart Steve originally posted was "wind-chill" ? - have a look in top left corner.

WelshSnowFan

That is freakin cold still,and the temps will be below freezing anyway,i am sure steve is aware of that.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

Well Fred, at midday yesterday, Moscow was a balmy -16C. So at least there should be some really deep cold for us to tap into??

Lol indeed Pete, we just need a tap....anyone a plumber?

 

BFTP

[Mucka]

4 hours ago, Singularity said:

Not the most satisfying of det. runs this evening on the face of it. GFS has the better MJO signal but the 12z det. has the pattern taking shape too far east to do us much good, if anything setting up well for a pumped up Euro High. That could then ascend to the high latitudes but if anything a mid-lat block over the UK would be more likely as the MJO moved through phases 8 and 1. At least it would be drier than much of 2015 was!

ECM's det. run has similar issues with the trough position, but with less organisation of the storm systems which allows for a bit more interest - that ridge from the Azores could perhaps build NE beyond day 10.

It certainly highlights what I said yesterday about the likely issues with getting that mid-Atlantic trough to behave as we'd like. We can't worry too much yet though, as the models are proving very volatile from run to run; with the 00z ECM and 06z GFS det. runs on the table, the prospect of a transient northerly was starting to look decent - yet now we've come crashing down again.

 

I'd feature the ensembles in this analysis, but GEFS don't seem to be indicating much one way or the other which suggests to me a lack of clear signals to push them away from climatology, while ECM's ensembles are currently the odd one out with the MJO forecasts which means they're either by far the best guide on offer right now, or misfiring completely... we just can't say for sure! 

This seems like one of those occasions where it's best to let the models play about with the longer range for 4-5 days while focusing on the nearer term issues such as those potential storms later next week. In that regard Thursday's gales are looking more 'regular' compared to this morning's guidance, but there's still a scattering of vicious outcomes among the 12z GEFS so... best watch out for that one.

 

 

My feeling is the GFS is struggling most with the behaviour of this trough and hanging it back too far West and is too slow to push it through.

A blend between ECM and UKMO but with the general theme of the trough further SE and quicker to push through than GFS.

The last signal I reported from GFS ensembles was quite some time ago and  it was for pressure to rise from the SW near mid month either across the UK or Atlantic but that signal has not strengthened as would be expected if it were a genuine signal, although this may be down to how GFS is now handling the trough which would likely suppress any pressure rises due to the trough hanging around in the area like a bad smell. Perhaps if GFS begins to push the trough further SE and is more progressive it may strengthen?

ECM has some good support for the cooler zonal conditions among its ensembles and if anythingis predicting temps to be a touch below average even the South in the run up to mid month. 

 

 

Edited January 2, 2016 by Mucka

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Maybe -Maybe not ...

some years like 2010 etc you feel like its a matter of time before the next cold episode, this winter feels a case of not long for the next let down-

we have around 5-7 days to wait now to see if anything comes of the block that develops over eastern canada - whether it can slow the jet enough to then allow for a ridge -

FwIW - 18z shows a classic scandi high development- a risge thrown NNE out of the azozes settling over scandi 

also of note for ref is the debilt ENS has nice cold clustering near the end - days 12-15

I think most of us will take anything at the moment - just 1 air frost here winter to date is a joke.....

 

s

I am of the opinion of the 'rut' situation and if we get a cold set up it will be as tenacious as the mild so this mild isn't too much of a concern as it has been such a rut.  I think Aaron [crewecold] said something of note the other day...delayed Spring anyone?

 

BFTP

[SMU]

19 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I am of the opinion of the 'rut' situation and if we get a cold set up it will be as tenacious as the mild so this mild isn't too much of a concern as it has been such a rut.  I think Aaron [crewecold] said something of note the other day...delayed Spring anyone?

 

BFTP

Well we shall see

lets hope this doesnt land.....

s

[Spah1]

Fergie tweeting

"signs in longer-range products for more meridional phases possible at times after mid-Jan, so a different 'flavour',  perhaps"

hope so. 

[Allseasons-Si]

And the chart of the day goes to perturbation 4,the finger of god

a possibility

[Cheshire Freeze]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I am of the opinion of the 'rut' situation and if we get a cold set up it will be as tenacious as the mild so this mild isn't too much of a concern as it has been such a rut.  I think Aaron [crewecold] said something of note the other day...delayed Spring anyone?

 

BFTP

I did indeed Fred, but saying that, I also thought December would be a 'wildcard' month- which indeed it was- just in the wrong direction  FWIW I think we'll land with a CET in the 4-4.5C range for Jan with the potential for a notable (perhaps very cold) spell in the second half of this month. As ever, we shall see eh! I have a lot of faith in the GLOSEA seasonal and would suggest Feb could be colder still. A lot of interesting model watching coming up.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

10 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Well we shall see

lets hope this doesnt land.....

s

Can you lock knocker away fro 2 months...lol.  Not a dig Knocker

 

BFTP

[mackerel sky]

Don't often post nowadays, little time. Obviously given up on a decent undercut to tap into the current cold developing nearby in Norway. And whilst we have dumb bells of low Pressure nearby a waste of time. Though I am becoming intrested in signals a bit further out, FI is starting to look not too daft.That said I was seriously considering cutting the grass. It hasn't stopped growing.

[bobbydog]

5 hours ago, bobbydog said:

ok then. i was pointing out the (vague maybe?) similarities of the alaskan ridge and the atlantic driven weather in 1991 to now. if you look through the archives, the hemispheric pattern is not dissimilar to what is being modelled now. bearing in mind the forecasts of the MJO and the seasonal forecast by netweather, plus musings from other professionals regarding cold weather towards the end of jan- beginning of february and timings of any potential SSW, it wouldnt be out of the question that january may not deliver but february could be worth the wait. i'm certainly not claiming it will happen. thats why i said "discuss" and not 'expect a repeat of 1991' 

i just threw it out there for discussion. no wild claims here...

oh.... look....

 

lol...!

Edited January 3, 2016 by bobbydog

[blizzard81]

8 hours ago, Catacol said:

 

In relation to Fergie's tweet, is the meto moving towards GP's thoughts and prognosis?

[Geordiesnow]

Well to be honest, it turned out a bit laughable that the UK would struggle to even tap into any cold air despite the promising potential that was on offer, although in fairness, there was not really a strong support for an easterly anyways. 

Despite all the gossip about how things may turn interesting again, the reality is the models are not showing this(although if you look past face value, the charts do hold more promise than December did) at the moment and it seems we are back in the Atlantic rut but with more seasonal temperatures. Yet again though, no real polar shot so temps will hardly be below average so you have to class the output as average to mild at the moment. 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Lol indeed Pete, we just need a tap....anyone a plumber?

 

BFTP

Funny you said tap,this from Skegness a few days ago when i was there

 

got the tapbut the plumber

why the underline,could not get rid of it

anyhows,some interesting outputs showing in FI in the last coulple of days,come on we need a cold spell now,some folk haven't seen one for a few years,and there are tentative signs that we may be knock..ing into one

@ Bobbydog,remember that i said that i would save that 384hrs easterly from gfs 18z on 30th dec

tonight's 18z 348hrs

 

good night.

Edited January 3, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[karlos1983]

I'm not sure I have the energy for another easterly. I fear for my sanity if it were to fail