Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[blizzard81]

3 hours ago, Catacol said:

 

At least the ecm gives us something to talk about  I like the way the very cold air digs south in the US mid-west as opposed to further east. This acts to slow the jet down so good news for us thereafter.

[Frosty.]

Well after all the very mild blowtorch dross we coldies have endured so far this winter, the Ecm 12z shows colder weather on the way with frosts and a chance of snow, especially further north. From my desperate coldies perspective...this looks rather good!

 

Edited January 2, 2016 by Frosty.

[Tattooed Fox]

8 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Another end of the world storm from GFS this morning - this is a MEAN wind speed chart, so hurricane force winds reaching N Devon

Details are changing run by run but potential is there for a serious storm on all op runs this morning. It's looking like February 2014 all over again but with the pattern 200/300 miles further south, so more snow 'opportunities' too especially further north, and as the northerly side of the trough feeds round from the NW.

Can anyone shed anymore light on this potentially nasty storm.  There is obviously the chance it will miss the SW and pop off to France, but it does look very nasty and could be the next named storm.

[Man With Beard]

Taking a look at this

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=240

and this

then I think there is a LOT of interest coming up in the next few weeks. PV (the purple bits) battered to all corners of the Arctic.

Take a look through some of the colder winters in the last 40 years, and you'll find most of them have a very fluid PV, with areas of heights moving round the Arctic like jelly. No matter that a bit of it is over Greenland right now - just have to wait until the jelly squeezes the juice towards the UK!

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, Sonnia said:

Can anyone shed anymore light on this potentially nasty storm.  There is obviously the chance it will miss the SW and pop off to France, but it does look very nasty and could be the next named storm.

I'll reply since I posted it. It's just one run, and I don't think it has been replicated in any other model run today to that strength. So don't worry too much yet. But the potential is there for something nasty to track over the southern half of the UK in the next 8 days, I'd advise keeping a close watch on the runs over the next few days.

[Woollymummy]

7 minutes ago, Sonnia said:

Can anyone shed anymore light on this potentially nasty storm.  There is obviously the chance it will miss the SW and pop off to France, but it does look very nasty and could be the next named storm.

I think it is too far into the future, so prob will not happen, or if it does prob will not be as strong or in that particular place, more likely something will happen to make a different outcome instead.

[Tattooed Fox]

8 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

Thank you for your reply - it is people like you that pick up on these "one off charts" and they turn into something nasty, but they give people the heads up in the mean time to what needs to be watched.  You never know with our weather now.  Like you said the potential is there and should be watched.  Cheers

 

[gottolovethisweather]

17 minutes ago, Sonnia said:

Can anyone shed anymore light on this potentially nasty storm.  There is obviously the chance it will miss the SW and pop off to France, but it does look very nasty and could be the next named storm.

The date on the chart aforementioned is the 11th January which tells you all you need to know really, which is to be unconcerned about said storm event until it comes into the reliable, which won't be for the best part of another week if at all. Unfortunately for those wanting the complete opposite by way of colder snowy synoptics (which includes me), the same goes for us, the best charts for snow down in lowland England are currently out of reach in FI. Suffice to say, we aren't in the same boat as per previous weeks, as things high up above be a-changing and the global NH picture is set to give us something more average to cooler than average Temperature wise. I still foresee a few rain events to come before the chill descends however, at least parts due North and Northeast are set get colder which bodes well for everyone else, in the run up to mid-January. Another bonus is that parts of Europe have recently see snow and will continue to see some over the coming days as well. 

Edited January 2, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[knocker]

The only snowfall I can see on the ecm run is on LP system on Thursday which gives quite significant falls to the NE of the front as it moves NE. in the north of England and Scotland. None on that system in the channel at T240 but that's academic anyway at that range.

 

[Singularity]

Not the most satisfying of det. runs this evening on the face of it. GFS has the better MJO signal but the 12z det. has the pattern taking shape too far east to do us much good, if anything setting up well for a pumped up Euro High. That could then ascend to the high latitudes but if anything a mid-lat block over the UK would be more likely as the MJO moved through phases 8 and 1. At least it would be drier than much of 2015 was!

ECM's det. run has similar issues with the trough position, but with less organisation of the storm systems which allows for a bit more interest - that ridge from the Azores could perhaps build NE beyond day 10.

It certainly highlights what I said yesterday about the likely issues with getting that mid-Atlantic trough to behave as we'd like. We can't worry too much yet though, as the models are proving very volatile from run to run; with the 00z ECM and 06z GFS det. runs on the table, the prospect of a transient northerly was starting to look decent - yet now we've come crashing down again.

 

I'd feature the ensembles in this analysis, but GEFS don't seem to be indicating much one way or the other which suggests to me a lack of clear signals to push them away from climatology, while ECM's ensembles are currently the odd one out with the MJO forecasts which means they're either by far the best guide on offer right now, or misfiring completely... we just can't say for sure! 

This seems like one of those occasions where it's best to let the models play about with the longer range for 4-5 days while focusing on the nearer term issues such as those potential storms later next week. In that regard Thursday's gales are looking more 'regular' compared to this morning's guidance, but there's still a scattering of vicious outcomes among the 12z GEFS so... best watch out for that one.

 

[gottolovethisweather]

4 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Looking at Thursday on tonights ECM a risk of blizzards over northern hills although I think this chart is slightly optimistic away from high ground, quite a chilly week coming up looking at the 2m temps with frosts possible as winds fall light, colder the further north you are. 

 

 

Oh yes please, a frost would be a nice bonus once the early part of next week's rainfall has passed. I didn't even get to record a frost on the 1st January as my Davis registered a low of 0.1c. Talk about take the proverbial .....  Roll on Spring, probably get plenty of frosts and snow then, lol. Where can we access these charts from Sub Zero?

Edited January 2, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[The PIT]

Looking at the temps for Thursday zero chance of blizzards away from the mountain tops. The cold northerly in deep FI land has gone the way of tooth fairies as expected.

ECM at T120 looks interesting looking more stormy than the GFS so this could provide a bit more interest in reliable time frame. If we're going to be mild let it be stormy.

[nick sussex]

I quite liked tonights ECM operational run. All we need is a bit more amplitude as the low heights phase with the low coming out of the central USA and we could see the Azores high ridge further ne. The pattern to the ne with the Russian high should lock in low heights over eastern Europe.

Then the Azores high ridges ne and we finally get lucky with a trigger shortwave. Sorted!

The sausage low heights running from Newfoundland ne to northern Greenland is normally a good correlation with ridging ne ahead of it.

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All and Happy New Year To Everyone...... Ive been away for nearly a week with my Mrs and Ive only had chance to view the charts with limited access, so now Im back home Im delighted to say Ive got full access to the charts......! Amongst the doom and gloom in the next few days, Ecm has brought a light to this so far dismal early Winter....!  Ecm shows some disruption of cold across the Artic displacing the cold air further south  IE the United Kingdom. so some very interesting Wintry weather if the Ecm is right! Gfs is feeling very very tired from its festive hangover......

[Cloud 10]

Quite a wintry looking ECM day 10 ensemble mean,with the troughing finally getting a bit further east,and starting to look quite similar to that tasty MJO phase 7 composite.

 

 

Also nice to see a "black hole" verify.

 

 

Oh what might have been....

 

Edited January 2, 2016 by Cloud 10

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 hours ago, Catacol said:

Ha - me too.... Got to go back several years for any snow here in lowland Somerset... and there wasnt any at all from 1999 - Feb 2009 in my first 10 years here (bar a brief flurry in Nov 2005 I think...). Enough to make the teeth grind a-plenty.

But with both GP and RJS going for some cold in the not too distant future there is enough to be interested with. As I'll have to post a model chart to avoid being binned, let's look at something like this from mid month as a starting point. It certainly fits GP's thinking of "transient amplification" to start off winter proper... 

And if Jan turns colder and remains so second half, for me it even triggers further the intensity of the cold I expect during end of Jan and early Feb.....I already think its going to be potent

 

BFTP

[damianslaw]

Starting with the here and now - on paper very promising synoptics for a cold spell looming with heights positioned well to our NE and building - but alas they are just a bit too far to the NE, and against a very active atlantic unfortunately don't have the UK in its sight.

What are we now facing - more wet weather for all, colder in the north with significant snowfall on higher ground, but for most away from highland regions precipitation is most likely going to be of rain. Quite a raw dismal outlook in the north, more of the recent same for the south, but temps closer to the seasonal average, so certainly not the balmy conditions of late.

As we head further into the month - the models suggest a very slow moving trough feature anchored over the country struggling to make eastwards progress, meaning winds staying from a west to southerly source, but there are continued signs the azores high is trying to build closer to the country perhaps into southern regions, perhaps north into the mid atlantic aided by the slow moving trough.

Still believe we are at the start of a transitional period - from super mild and super wet to less mild and less wet and by middle of the month to something much more average, with the balance thereafter favouring a colder drier theme. There remain many signals for something much colder developing at the half way juncture of the winter. I sense though many posters over the coming days will remain very frustrated with what the models show - anyone longing for deep cold and snow might be best to come back in a couple of weeks. In the meantime for Scotland and far N England at least the outlook is quite seasonal without ever being especially cold or snowy.

[Methuselah]

20 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

And if Jan turns colder and remains so second half, for me it even triggers further the intensity of the cold I expect during end of Jan and early Feb.....I already think its going to be potent

 

BFTP

Well Fred, at midday yesterday, Moscow was a balmy -16C. So at least there should be some really deep cold for us to tap into??

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Snow for the Irish, PM blast good for the Irish, Scots too of course

[Paul]

Latest synoptic outlook blog from Nick is well worth a read:

Early January Outlook - Atlantic Onslaught Continues ...

[SMU]

So near & yet so far -.......

[damianslaw]

I'm beginning to the think the trough may shift eastwards more into the N Sea later next week allowing preety potent polar maritime air to invade the north of the country. Jetstream profile a recipe for Polar Maritime shots.

[Ali1977]

USA going into the freezer on this run, oh and hello little beast in FI!!

Edited January 2, 2016 by Ali1977

[Allseasons-Si]

I know it's FI but here we go

this is what we wan't to see in future runs,the gfs has been toying around with this scenario for the last couple of days

 

 

Edited January 2, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Ali1977]

That would be a really nice cold spell, poss prolonged. Looks like potential reloading scenario too.

Edited January 2, 2016 by Ali1977