Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

[chillyblast]

Happy New Year everybody, I don't post much on this forum but I have visited it for many years and use the forecast / model predictions here more than I use the official channels so thank you all, I don't know or understand the weather (I'm an I.T guy, Cisco networking, servers, virtualisation / VMware, VoIP / SIP) but I still find weather interesting and this is my source of info, once again thank you and happy new year.

[Bobd29]

What can you say .....been a great star to the New Year so HNY to everybody, and we have the great debate of JP v METO to look forward to this January, should be fascinating to see how the month unfolds who will blink first? 

Whatever happens let us enjoy the forum and the weather....

[marksiwnc]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hehe - GP vs Glosea5. A great way to start the New Year. Here's hoping human interpretation outplays the computer says no....

 

HNY one and all.

What has GP been predicting???  Sorry but I'm a novice 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 hours ago, bigsnow said:

Happy new year everybody.... going from Ian F's last post we look like waiting till the back end of winter for anything of note... this ties in well with the Meto's winter forecast i believe... maybe something special will turn up to make up the horrid mush mild rubbish we have endured so far....

Anyone getting the increasing feeling we'll be shivering into March, perhaps even April? 

[Eskimo]

It's a real shame, that a nation so far north, as far north as some Canadian cities, cannot see a single snowflake during the darkest days of Winter. Obviously we live next to a big old pool of water that is notorious for the Jet stream & the the gulf stream, but the fact that we just can't seem to have a decent cold spell every Winter is beyond me, not even the small window of opportunity. I know we are only in early January, but i honestly fear the worst, hoping for the best & that happens every year. Last year we saw Syria, Lebanon and I think Iraq see snow, which means we are probably the most snowless nation in the mid latitudes, at least England anyway. Oh well, such is the weather in this part of the world. 

Edited January 1, 2016 by PerfectStorm

[Paul White.]

I saw this earlier and it just shows how hard it been to get a low cet for the uk.

Courtesy bbc news website

[forecaster]

The temperature news from the latest EC32:

Below average for 4th - 10th, then above average thereafter. It also makes all of northern Europe, eastern Europe and half of Russia above average as well.

[knocker]

This morning's GFS has the low pressure area and associated fronts that move in from the west on Sunday remaining adjacent to the UK until Weds when it moves off to the east leaving a neat line of lows to the SW lined up to enter the fray. Most of these tend to merge with some complicated phasing but one doesn't and runs along the jet into the UK and deepens to to 954mbs by Thursday. An eye will need to kept on this.

Temps tending to remain slightly above average but obviously this will vary as systems traverse the country with the more wintry stuff in the  north

I see the latest EC32 has already been covered so suffice it to say the NAO and AO are negative for the first two weeks and then become positive.

Edited January 1, 2016 by knocker

[Liam J]

No comment on the overnight runs, maybe all got bad heads! lol....Happy new year!

Looks like some upgrades to me at relatively close range with a ridge north of UK towards Greenland. Colder 850's still to the NE but the 850 & 2m temps charts only go to T72 on UKMO.

UKMO 00z, maybe Steve's 24hr model turnaround will come off?  

96hrs  72  72 

A few frames later and we have this though.

 

 

Edited January 1, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[Liam J]

Maybe I spoke prematurely without seeing the ECM...

UKMO & ECM @ 144hrs, reasonable agreement on the evolution. 

 UKMO did look a bit better at 96hrs on the 00z? 

Yesterdays 12z  00z 

Edited January 1, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[knocker]

The ecm has the low next week running across S. Scotland

[Iceberg]

Just catching up, I think sm was on the drinks a bit early to be honest to come up with that prediction.

there is just far far too much energy to have it deflected by anything but a perfectly placed block and this block is far from perfectly placed.

as we go through the next 7 days all the talk will be about  the winds and flooding imho. Far to much uncertainty as to where and the models haven't got any kind of real handle on the energy but the energy is there and there the signs are that the path way will be between Shetland and northern Spain. 

[MPG]

GFS a step towards mild. No cold uppers enter the UK throughout the run. SW, WET mild influence throughout run.

Fergie talks of SSW in Feb..well that may not effect the UK and by then winter is coming to an end. 

[Frosty.]

Happy New Year GANG

I'm still waiting for winter to start, hopefully won't have too long to wait!

[MPG]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Happy New Year GANG

I'm still waiting for winter to start, hopefully won't have too long to wait!

December 16!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, MPG said:

December 16!

LOL if you don't mind me saying, that's a bit negative!

[MPG]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

LOL if you don't mind me saying, that's a bit negative!

But probably realistic  HNY

[kumquat]

Still great to come here and see SM putting out such a ballsy call (still 18 hours).

Thank you for being my go to weather forum and all you lovely posters.

Happy New Year.

[MPG]

FI is toying with a pressure rise from the south, but it ends up over the UK instead of riding up into the Atlantic. Again the cold goes into eastern Europe. 

[northwestsnow]

No sign of the Atlantic running out of steam on the 0z runs.

Just wet and windy with the odd ridge thrown in.

Longer term the signal seems to be for pressure to build across mainland europe again.

The wait for a single flake goes on..

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=6&carte=&mode=0

 

morning all  happy  new  year  well  looking at the  models  this morning  they looking pretty grim   i .e. possible deep low on 8 jan  940  if that comes off   its not good news fore  some areas of  the uk , all i can  see  is   rain and lots of it

[Liam J]

Nice northerly on the ECM monthly control for mid January, snow cover, sub zero temps & the -5c 850 line as far south as N Spain. It was showing this a week or two back but dropped the idea, now it's appeared again. 

[IDO]

As the models were showing yesterday there was near 100% agreement (on those that went to D10) for the Atlantic to be in control with a chunk of vortex running over the north of the UK. At D9 this remains the case and now it is a matter of how this manifests:

GFS  GEM  ECM:

GFS can overdo the Atlantic so hopefully the development of lows within the main vortex wont be as bad as on the 0z run. Temp wise the 850s are closer to seasonal averages:

The spikes on the rainfall tell the story with potential for further copious amounts of rain. I am sure with such seasonal temps the usual favoured places will see some sleet/snow (hills and mountains). 

Looking at the D16 GEFS to see if a trend is showing and heights building E Atlantic/UK seem the main clusters. Nothing I would hang my hat on, but the main conclusion is that another vortex looks like landing to the NW again if the mean is a guide (usual caveats):

   

With the change in pattern to a westerly flow, the curse of the rainfall ^^^ will be spread more evenly with the Midlands south looking like getting between 150-300% of normal amounts over the next 10 days, whilst that vortex passes through. The pressure build over Alaska/NW Canada was well signposted and with part of the PV planted over that region it was inevitable that this would be travelling through and giving us the double whammy of losing our block as well as a wet 7-12 days.

Hopefully something more interesting after this transition period. I see why Lorenzo and others are excited that the record warmth in November/December will have an impact later in the season. However I think we are all flying blind here, with the MJO signal maybe not being relevant as to previous composites and the effects on the strat so far being trop led with little sign of that making much impact, and more importantly, though early days, no strat down warming evident yet. So as many were saying at the start of the Winter if we were to get cold from a strong ENSO it would be Feb/March and the timing of any SSW will also be in those realms. Not ideal as January and early Feb are the prime times for something wintry, but we saw in that November/early December 2010 that even snow out of prime time can be exceptional, so the winter is not over despite the LR forecasts suggesting Jan will be poor for the UK. The hunt for cold returns after mid Jan...

 

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Nice northerly on the ECM monthly control for mid January, snow cover, sub zero temps & the -5c 850 line as far south as N Spain. It was showing this a week or two back but dropped the idea, now it's appeared again. 

In line with GP's thoughts

[Frosty.]

Well it's a new year and it's starting on a drier and cooler note but the models are showing yet more rain and strengthening winds across much of the UK this weekend and staying unsettled next week too so a further risk of flooding!