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Model output discussions pm 31/12/15


phil nw.

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Posted
  • Location: eccles manchester
  • Location: eccles manchester
16 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Yes Mucka..those ensembles were a bit of kick in the teeth..

all is not lost yet, to much to play for.

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax, Leeds, Yorkshire 44m (144ft) asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme Weather Patterns
  • Location: Kippax, Leeds, Yorkshire 44m (144ft) asl.

Thanks for the update Ian. Looks like the Coffin lid Is SEMI permanently shut and hammered down.

EDIT. SSW awaited with baited breath, might pop a few nails out. :D 

032014_0141_thebestbook17.png

Happy new year to all and sundry.

Edited by Carlrg
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Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
2 minutes ago, Carlrg said:

Thanks for the update Ian. Looks like the Coffin lid is permanently shut and hammered down.

Happy new year to all and sundry.

That ain't what the man said - happy new year !! 2 minutes from the bells let's start this on a positive.. :)

Edited by lorenzo
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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Happy new year to my fellow posters, all the best and hopefully new year brings us a change in fortune :D

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
20 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

...whilst new EC Monthly joins ongoing GloSea5 idea now, i.e. of +ve temp anomalies re-asserting through mid-late Jan to establish widely across the UK, with broadly W/SW flow courtesy +ve MSLP focused to SW. So, remaining firmly aligned to seasonal GloSea5 diagnostics thus far, and we await any signs of the possible switch/ongoing SSW potential signalled during Feb. 

Happy New Year all!

Happy New Year Ian :) I will remember this post if and WHEN GP's thoughts about the second half of Jan come to fruition.

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Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl

Happy new year everybody.... going from Ian F's last post we look like waiting till the back end of winter for anything of note... this ties in well with the Meto's winter forecast i believe... maybe something special will turn up to make up the horrid mush mild rubbish we have endured so far....

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
29 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

...whilst new EC Monthly joins ongoing GloSea5 idea now, i.e. of +ve temp anomalies re-asserting through mid-late Jan to establish widely across the UK, with broadly W/SW flow courtesy +ve MSLP focused to SW. So, remaining firmly aligned to seasonal GloSea5 diagnostics thus far, and we await any signs of the possible switch/ongoing SSW potential signalled during Feb. 

Happy New Year all!

Nice post and fair enough.. But I'm sure a member displayed GloSea5 for JFM and the positive anomalies were mid Atlantic riding towards Greenland.

 

member  was crew cold in a post from last year :)

 

happy new year folks. Health and happiness and maybe a little snow

Edited by TSNWK
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey/Hampshire border 86m/280ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Surrey/Hampshire border 86m/280ft asl

Happy New Year, you wonderful lot! Onwards and upwards! :drunk-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
2 minutes ago, ReindeerMarmalade said:

Happy New Year, you wonderful lot! Onwards and upwards! :drunk-emoji:

Upwards then downwards hopefully! :spiteful:

 

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey/Hampshire border 86m/280ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Surrey/Hampshire border 86m/280ft asl
12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Upwards then downwards hopefully! :spiteful:

 

Quite right! Well said, that man! :D

 

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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frost and snow. A quiet autumn day is also good.
  • Location: Lincolnshire - 15m asl

Hehe - GP vs Glosea5. A great way to start the New Year. Here's hoping human interpretation outplays the computer says no....

 

HNY one and all.

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
18 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hehe - GP vs Glosea5. A great way to start the New Year. Here's hoping human interpretation outplays the computer says no....

 

HNY one and all.

I know who I  want to put my money on...

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, thunderstorms, warm summers not too hot.
  • Location: Medlock Valley, Oldham, 103 metres/337 feet ASL
Just now, Shuga ice said:

Happy new year everyone.  See you all in             November.

LOL at this rate you might not be wrong. Happy New Year everyone. :)

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Posted
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Interesting weather
  • Location: Boar's Hill, Oxon

Happy New Year from Oxfordshire to you all;  hey guess what? Just got a lift back with the kids from a party and the car windscreen was frosted over and doors iced shut, haven't felt it actually being cold for ages, here's hoping we get a little bit of nice winter frost and snow sometime before summer. Xx

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Posted
  • Location: Milton Keynes
  • Location: Milton Keynes
29 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Hehe - GP vs Glosea5. A great way to start the New Year. Here's hoping human interpretation outplays the computer says no....

 

HNY one and all.

Yes - very interesting - numerical modeling and picking the average or most common solution or using teleconnections -  I must say I am pretty skeptical about both at this range. If either predict something other than zonal and mild (as GP has done ) and they turn out to be mostly correct I will be impressed.

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Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON

Have the people over on Weatherweb TV been on the sauce?:drunk-emoji: Or do they just know when to ignore models that are clearly confused and need to be switched on and off again?:drunk-emoji: Although low in confidence, Simon Keeling is forecasting SNOW  and in just two weeks:shok::santa-emoji::reindeer-emoji:  http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php :yahoo:Oh and Happy New Year everyone and stop arguing over the weather in here!:friends::cold-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
  • Weather Preferences: summer thunderstorms snow snow snow
  • Location: lizard pen south cornwall
1 hour ago, fergieweather said:

...whilst new EC Monthly joins ongoing GloSea5 idea now, i.e. of +ve temp anomalies re-asserting through mid-late Jan to establish widely across the UK, with broadly W/SW flow courtesy +ve MSLP focused to SW. So, remaining firmly aligned to seasonal GloSea5 diagnostics thus far, and we await any signs of the possible switch/ongoing SSW potential signalled during Feb. 

Happy New Year all!

That be that then.

Happy new year everyone and hey,spring is coming

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