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phil nw.

Model output discussions pm 31/12/15

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Models do seem to be very much all over the place at very short range the last week... last time i can remember it being like this and so uncertain was Jan 2013, no i know each year is different so one cannot compare directly but if my memory is correct the Jan 2013 cold spell took the models ages to sort out with one model running off with an output only to drop it then another model pick it up etc etc.. are they at it again??  anyways fantastic thread so far this winter with lots of well reasoned posts and some very well guided stuff that for people learning is a massive bonus... enjoy reading peoples thoughts and ideas even if they dont fit with my wanting of cold and snow its good to see every point of view... keep it up gang HAPPY NEW YEAR TO YOU ALL...

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1 hour ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

So to repeat what I just added over on TWO

bin all the GFS & ECM suites 

go with a total pattern change in the next 12-24 hours to a very cold easterly at 144-168
S

Thanks for that, Steve...But, for now, I think I'll take a pragmatic approach - whatever will be, will be.:D

Edited by Polar Maritime
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1 hour ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

So to repeat what I just added over on TWO

bin all the GFS & ECM suites 

go with a total pattern change in the next 12-24 hours to a very cold easterly at 144-168

S

Wow.... i will take it.... i just hope you are correct here Steve as this is a massive call... good on you for making it and putting it out there for us to see.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Great post Steve

60/40 against for me. I think it's a case of whether the main Atlantic trough gets positioned favourably to not only allow a easterly feed, but to allow heights to remain low along its southern flank.

But yes, we have seen this before, and it often was modelled incorrectly before T144. Question is, are the models better now than they were several years ago? We're about to find out!

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Bold call Steve, good luck!! Although I don't agree that we can simply bin them especially the ECM, only a fool would do that IMO given it has a slight edge on the rest and you've said before you would bet your house on the ECM being correct within T120 given it's superior resolution.... So you expect models will begin to agree on a much colder pattern going forward in the next 24hrs? Time will tell as ever! Anything will be better than this endless rain, frosty and snowy weather would be a bonus :) 

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1 hour ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

So to repeat what I just added over on TWO

bin all the GFS & ECM suites 

go with a total pattern change in the next 12-24 hours to a very cold easterly at 144-168

S

Lol hope you havnt hit the bottle early steve :) seriously though i hope you are right 

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Brave move Steve and I hope you're correct. My gut instinct says we will be in a no-man's land between cold air to the north / north east and much milder air to the south / south West. 

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In the extended range the GEFs still point to a flow from a northerly quadrant from mid-month.

gens-21-5-300.pnggens-21-5-360.png

So cool/cold and much drier hopefully as we enter the third week of January, whatever the shorter term outcomes.

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1 hour ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

So to repeat what I just added over on TWO

bin all the GFS & ECM suites 

go with a total pattern change in the next 12-24 hours to a very cold easterly at 144-168

s
 

It's funny  as I'm reading this post from Steve there is a heavy thunder hail shower outside. Almost as though the weather is empathising that something is literally stirring outside I've seen SM do this before I've seen him nail it and as he admits he has been let down with a short wave problem that sometimes makes his thoughts go the way of the pear.. But I think that is a brilliant post very informative 

 

just hope that he has got this one nailed 

happy new year everyone 

 

paul

Edited by Polar Maritime
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2 minutes ago, Paul White. said:

It's funny  as I'm reading this post from Steve there is a heavy thunder hail shower outside. Almost as though the weather is empathising that something is literally stirring outside I've seen SM do this before I've seen him nail it and as he admits he has been let down with a short wave problem that sometimes makes his thoughts go the way of the pear.. But I think that is a brilliant post very informative 

 

just hope olé he has got this one nailed 

happy new year everyone 

 

paul

Sleety snow falling here currently lets hope we all see some good white stuff by the end of next week.

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 would expect a significantly different suite tonight in favour of cold.
Its happened before - I have called that before ( but of course I have also not been right )

Take it or leave it :)

WTF, am i dreaming. Autumn is over. ;-)

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well steves post is a popular one even if it flies in the face of the current available data...

in 40 years of model watching, the evolution of something that  has been missed by all the main model suits (or met charts in the old days) is a very rare event. however in weather nothing can be ruled out, and steves cold punt is  a possibility.

ill tell you something though, if he turns out to be right itll earn a lot of respect from fellow sceptics like me!

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Well we have been very close (literally) to something cold with the general upcoming pattern, a lot of the ingredients are there and have been for days. The big question is can we nudge things just that little bit further south and west to allow the UK to be affected by the very cold air that is in no doubt coming close.

Its not like Steve is suggesting some huge longwave pattern shift, just that we may well get in on the action that is oh so close anyway.

Will be very interesting to see the 12zs roll out tonight, some small changes could build to deliver cold to our shores. 

 

Edited by chris55
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