Predictions for 2016?

[Guest]

I'll follow the trend that has followed Northern Ireland for two years.

 

January  Mild and stormy. However, a chance of a cold-spell bringing snow. (Which is usually the trend for Derry, a warmer december equals a colder January) 4-6C

February Mild month with average precipitation 4-6C

March  Warmer than average (like 2015) with higher levels of sunshine. Possibility of a cold-spell in the beginning. 11-14C

April Mild with higher precipitation than usual. Dull. 10-14C

May Mild with higher precipitation than usual. Dull 11-16C

June Dull, less sunshine than usual however higher temperatures. Chance of a hot spell. 13-17C

July Dull, less sunshine than usual. Possibility of a hot spell.  14-18C

August Mild or warm, temperatures close or higher than average. Less sunshine. 14-17C

September Warmer than usual, higher temperatures and more sunshine. 12-18C

October Milder than usual, less sunshine and dull. 9-12C

November First frost. Mild but stormy, higher precipitation.  7-12C

December Mild, cool, likely for no cold spells and higher precipitation than usual.  6-9C

 

Last year, we experienced a warm sunny March and a cool January, however, Summer left us just as it was suppose to arrive, and we got lower temperatures and rain for Summer. Autumn was sunny and warm before November.

 

I love rambling on about weather!

 

[summer blizzard]

In a perfect world my year would look like..

Jan: 2010

Feb: 2010

Mar: 2012

Apr: 2007

May: 2008

Jun: 2006

Jul: 2006

Aug: 2014

Sep:  2012

Oct: 2000

Nov: 2005

Dec: 2010

You can see that i like my seasons to be pretty unusual. 

 

[Lettucing Gutted]

In a perfect world I'd like my year to be:-

January 1979

February 1986

March 2013

April 1986

May 1816

June 1816

July 1816

August 1816

September 1986

October 1919

November 1919

December 2010

[Weather-history]

On 31 December 2015 at 9:09 AM, Weather-history said:

 

January: generally milder than average, wet at first, drier second half.

 

Corbynsque analysis now.

Yes, generally milder than average, there was that colder period around mid month. For England and Wales, the first part of the month was wetter than the second half, so the second half was drier than the first.

Corbyn analysis: 85% success rate....

[Weather-history]

On 31 December 2015 at 9:09 AM, Weather-history said:

February: coolest and driest month of the winter. A touch below average.

Not going to be below average. However will the coolest and driest of the winter months.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

On 31/12/2015 at 11:35 AM, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

January, mild.  Very wet and stormy, with Somerset Levels flooding again, and floods in the north not easing due to added rainfall.

February, mild, drier than the last few months.

 

 January - half correct with it being mild, but not the flooding I feared, thankfully.

February - partially correct - mild(ish) and not as wet as December, but hardly accurate either.

 Verdict so far - not troubling the professionals!

[Weather-history]

On 30 December 2015 at 9:09 AM, Weather-history said:

 

March: wetter than average on the coolish side

 

Looks like not too far off. Certainly wetter than average.

[Weather-history]

On 30 December 2015 at 9:09 AM, Weather-history said:

 

A couple of things, strong El Niños seem to be followed by a below average April. The 5 strongest El Niños were all followed by below average Aprils which contained a notable wintry episode.

My hunch is that April 2016 could be the coolest April since at least 1989.

April: cold, one or two notable wintry episodes for time of year

 

Looks not turning out as cold as I thought it might but the strong El Niño and below average April looks like holding true along with the notable wintry episodes.

[Optimus Prime]

On ‎01‎/‎01‎/‎2016 at 7:42 PM, Optimus Prime said:

A mild year, on a par with 2015. Possibly the warmest? Slightly favourable perhaps.

January - Very mild and unsettled but not on the scale of December.

February - More average but still rather mild. More settled, frosty spells than has been experienced but these will be interspersed with unsettled rainy periods. Slightly milder than average February concluding by far the warmest winter on record.

March - Unsettled, cool showery periods. A little on the cold side

April - Average or below average temperatures

May - Warm or very warm and dry

June - Warm or very warm and mostly rather dry

July- Quite unsettled and slightly warmer than average

August - Very warm but I suspect unsettled to go with it

September - Warm and generally settled

October - Just slightly warmer than average and unsettled

November - Near normal temperatures

December - Perhaps slightly on the cold side.

So far spot on. Hopefully May will continue with the current prospects.

[Weather-history]

It feels to me, at least around this neck of the woods, that so far 2016 has been more interesting weatherwise than some recent years. This time last week we just had a heavy snow shower and slight covering, now it's gloriously sunny with a warm spell on the way for example. Thunder the previous two years were non existent during the first half of those years. Hail has been prevalent as well. It feels more convective, evident by the fact thunder has been observed. 

[Weather-history]

On 31 December 2015 at 09:09, Weather-history said:

 

May: average, cool and warm spells cancelling each other out.

 

May was above average. 

[Weather-history]

On 31 December 2015 at 09:09, Weather-history said:

 

Another hunch is that the Junes of a year ending in a "6" tended to on the warm side. I think the CET average of Junes ending in a "6" is about 14.8C

So I'll go for a warmer than average June.

June: warmer than average, some thundery episodes

 

Pretty please my hunch has turned out.

[Jakehainton]

Feeling more positive about this upcoming Winter... I know its a way off yet but surely we can't have 4 bad winters on the bounce?

 

 

Or can we?

 

[Weather-history]

On 31 December 2015 at 09:09, Weather-history said:

Anyone go to take a punt at what 2016 weather might turn out like?

A couple of things, strong El Niños seem to be followed by a below average April. The 5 strongest El Niños were all followed by below average Aprils which contained a notable wintry episode.

My hunch is that April 2016 could be the coolest April since at least 1989.

Another hunch is that the Junes of a year ending in a "6" tended to on the warm side. I think the CET average of Junes ending in a "6" is about 14.8C

So I'll go for a warmer than average June 

Here's my crystal ball predictions.

January: generally milder than average, wet at first, drier second half.

February: coolest and driest month of the winter. A touch below average.

March: wetter than average on the coolish side

April: cold, one or two notable wintry episodes for time of year

May: average, cool and warm spells cancelling each other out.

June: warmer than average, some thundery episodes

July: warmer and wetter than average.

August: warmer than average but least warm of the summer months

September: wet and cooler than average.

October: dry but average temp

November: dry but on the coolish side

December: One or two cold wintry episodes, a bit below average.

July and August predictions are a bit awry

[Timmytour]

On 02/01/2016 at 18:56, Timmytour said:

I think the most remarkable month this year will be September in that it will end up being only the sixth September with a mean CET of 16C or above and could sneak into third place in the all time warmest after 2006 and 1729

 The first month I didn't get around to putting in a prediction for the actual month CET competition and it looks like it could be the nearest I'll have been to the actual CET with a prediction nine months before! 

 

 

 

Edited September 12, 2016 by Timmytour
delete strange texgt that appeared in place of the I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad! I put!

[Weather-history]

On 31 December 2015 at 09:09, Weather-history said:

 

September: wet and cooler than average.

 

A big 

[Weather-history]

On 31 December 2015 at 09:09, Weather-history said:

 

October: dry but average temp

 

Definitely drier than average now, doesn't look too far from average temperature wise.

[Weather-history]

On 31 December 2015 at 09:09, Weather-history said:

 

November: dry but on the coolish side

Not as dry as I thought, although it does not feel like it's been a wet November to me,

[Weather-history]

On 31 December 2015 at 09:09, Weather-history said:

Anyone go to take a punt at what 2016 weather might turn out like?

A couple of things, strong El Niños seem to be followed by a below average April. The 5 strongest El Niños were all followed by below average Aprils which contained a notable wintry episode.

My hunch is that April 2016 could be the coolest April since at least 1989.

Another hunch is that the Junes of a year ending in a "6" tended to on the warm side. I think the CET average of Junes ending in a "6" is about 14.8C

So I'll go for a warmer than average June 

Here's my crystal ball predictions.

January: generally milder than average, wet at first, drier second half.

February: coolest and driest month of the winter. A touch below average.

March: wetter than average on the coolish side

April: cold, one or two notable wintry episodes for time of year

May: average, cool and warm spells cancelling each other out.

June: warmer than average, some thundery episodes

July: warmer and wetter than average.

August: warmer than average but least warm of the summer months

September: wet and cooler than average.

October: dry but average temp

November: dry but on the coolish side

December: One or two cold wintry episodes, a bit below average.

December is going to be out.

Pleased that my two hunches for this year more or less came off.