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Predictions for 2016?

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Anyone go to take a punt at what 2016 weather might turn out like?

A couple of things, strong El Niños seem to be followed by a below average April. The 5 strongest El Niños were all followed by below average Aprils which contained a notable wintry episode.

My hunch is that April 2016 could be the coolest April since at least 1989.

Another hunch is that the Junes of a year ending in a "6" tended to on the warm side. I think the CET average of Junes ending in a "6" is about 14.8C

So I'll go for a warmer than average June 

Here's my crystal ball predictions.

January: generally milder than average, wet at first, drier second half.

February: coolest and driest month of the winter. A touch below average.

March: wetter than average on the coolish side

April: cold, one or two notable wintry episodes for time of year

May: average, cool and warm spells cancelling each other out.

June: warmer than average, some thundery episodes

July: warmer and wetter than average.

August: warmer than average but least warm of the summer months

September: wet and cooler than average.

October: dry but average temp

November: dry but on the coolish side

December: One or two cold wintry episodes, a bit below average.

Edited by Weather-history

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Mildest winter on record a soggy spring and finally a dry hot summer. Autumn thankfully cooling down to nice levels . December actually bringing some Snow

January mild and very wet although not record breakingly mild. Snow flakes to be pickled if spotted.

February very mild average rainfall meaning winter 15/16 record mild winter

March Wet and Stormy for once. Just above normal temp wise

April and so so month promising to be very wet and then dry but falling between the stools average temps and rainfall

May First signs hints of summer Some late hot spells and Thundery breakdowns rainfall above average to the thundery weather

June Hot and Sunny

July Hot and Sunny

August Hot at first then more average after a thundery breakdown

Sept to November Average temp wise and rainfall wise

December Finally some Snow for the snow starved folks below average temps and rainfall

 

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January, mild.  Very wet and stormy, with Somerset Levels flooding again, and floods in the north not easing due to added rainfall.

February, mild, drier than the last few months.

March, possibly a cooler spell or two, though no snow for lowland England.  Average rainfall.

April, cooler than average, showery and unsettled.

May, early warmth and settled weather, but wet and cool later.

June, wetter and cooler than average.

July, warm and generally settled, with a plume (possibly a couple).

August, Warm and drier than average, with some thundery spells.

September, Settled first half of the month, but rapidly heading downhill.

October, wet and windy.

November, wet and windy.

December, much the same as this year, with storms, flooding and excessively mild.  Even then, most posters on Netweather won't accept that winters in the UK are changing rapidly.

 

Please note that I don't want excessive rainfall and flooding, it's just what I fear might happen.

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

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1 minute ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I'll take a guess:

January - pre-dominantly mild and wet with some short chilly snaps, as winds veer NW'ly behind low pressure systems.

February - mostly close-to average, with some short wintry blasts. If we do get a more sustained cold pattern however, I think it will most likely occur in February.

March - I get a slight feeling that this month might be quite a warm and dry month. Maybe not quite on the scale of March 2012, but a decent month nonetheless.

April - given that most very mild winter months and strong El Ninos have a tendency to lead to cool spring weather, I think that this month will do just that. It may have one or two wintry blasts, but I think rainfall will be most notable about this month.

May - cool, but maybe not quite as wet as April. Again this is for the mild winters and El Ninos presumption.

June - close-to average. Near average sunshine, near average rainfall etc. Just a pretty bog-standard June.

July - warrmer than average, though not exceptionally so. Overall a decent summer month though, with maybe the odd good thundery plume thrown in too.

August - similar to July, though maybe a bit more thundery.

September - fairly warm, dry and sunny, though maybe showing signs of a mobilising Atlantic towards the end of it.

October - very varied. Some Atlantic spells interspersed with some late summer warmth and some early winter northerly blasts. Close-to average rain-wise.

November - sunny, I don't know why but I just think a sunny November is on the cards. Some early winter cold likely towards the end of the month.

December - overall slightly colder than average. Some Atlantic spells mixed with some colder easterly/northerly spells.

O/T I know, but, after the last couple of months, I'd take that!

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good riddance to one of the worst years of weather there has ever been. Appalling May June and July, horrendous November and December and August, March and April were nothing too decent. 2 sunny months April and September, the rest were mind boggingly dull. Everything below average except the months were below average is acceptble Nov and Dec which were both record mild and wet. You couldn't make it up.

2016 cant be any worse than 2015. . . .surely? . . . gulp!

 

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weatherwise im going for a similar year to 1983 ..for those who remeber it..without the very cold Feb...cool wet spring followed by a warmer June and a hot July and a closer to average August..Autumn close to average nthing exceptional and an above average Dec to finish but not as wet...im basing this on the fact this elnino seems to be similar to 1982-3 rather than 1997-8 ..summer 1982 wasnt great and was followed by a warm Dec 1982 and Jan 1983

Edited by cheeky_monkey

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Jan, westerlies to dominate mostly, PM air at times generally wet, very snowy 2nd half (Scotland) cooler than Dec

Feb, Atlantic to dominate, mostly unsettled, PM air at times snow to Scotland, cooler than Dec just gone

Mar, low pressure to dominate,mainly westerly winds, PM air at times giving snow to hills, cooler than Dec just gone

Apr, vile month, a lot of easterly winds, below average temps, wet in the south, sunny/dry in the north

May, Vile month, A lot of easterlies/northerlies, showery/convective month, mostly cool/below average temp wise

Jun, cool start, low pressure in charge/wet, by middle, maybe summer starting to arrive, Wimbledon 27th, hottest period of year

Jul, warm start, then generally turning cooler after Wimbledon, still warm average temps, 21C days, hopefully thunderstorms/ warmest month of 2016

Aug, unsettled/showery, hopefully thunderstorms, 2nd warmest month of 2016 just behind Jul

Sep, most settled month of 2016, warmer than may and June

0ct, warmish, settled at times, westerlies later

Nov, very wet, westerlies to dominate, flooding risk, above average temps

Dec, Atlantic to dominate, very wet, contender for wettest of all time, temps above average but cooler than 2015

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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Jan: Mild and wet with a few cool spells at the end of the month.

Feb: Cool with strong storms at the start of the month followed by a mainly dry second half.

Mar: Cool with sunny and cloudy days and a few frosts at the end of the month with potential for snow in Scotland/Lakes area.

Apr: The first week may see some snow and chilly conditions across the north and frosts throughout the country but it becomes more mild and rainy as the month goes on.

May: Very rainy with average temperatures across the whole month.

Jun: Less rainy than May with the potential of some thundery showers in the third week but still no notable hot spells.

Jul: The month will start poor with below average temperatures and rain but will surprise us with a warm second half and a thundery outbreak across the Central South/South East.

Aug: The month will start warm with a plume around the 10th bringing some strong thunderstorms going up the centre of the country that week it will also bring a couple of 30.C + days in England. The month will then stay dry and warm making it one of the best Augusts in a while.

Sep: Will still be warm with thundery showers at the start however change will be on the way with a dull wet end.

Oct: Will be cloudy , quite wet and boring with a cooler spell around Hallowe'en.

Nov: Will be like late October and generally getting colder with widespread frosts and snow as far south as the Midlands towards the end.

Dec: Will start off cold with a couple of ice days and heavy snow in the north with flurries and a bit of snow in the south but it will turn milder and wetter towards Jan 2017.

 

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January = Another mild month with more severe flooding

Feb = Stormy and cold

Mar = Stormy and cold

Apr = Heavy snow will fall early april, 2nd half of the month will swing from very cold to very hot, close to 30C

May = HP will dominate for most of the month giving wall to wall sunshine similar to May 2012

June = LP will dominate with bursts of southernly plumes , the month will totally contradict June 2015 with southernlys giving a warm feeling

July = Scorcher, record breaking European heatwave will spread.  Heathrow will nudge 42C. Even parts of Cumbria will see mid thirties

August = Scorcher, but wet, dull and cloudy feeling very warm and humid as Europe continues its record breaking heat, Occasional plumes and spikes of very hot.

September = The usual September High will dominate, wall to wall sunshine

October = Stormy and cold

November = Stormy and cold, early winter arrival, severe snowfall across many parts

December = Severe snowfall, white christmas

 

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7 minutes ago, 40*C said:

January = Another mild month with more severe flooding

Feb = Stormy and cold

Mar = Stormy and cold

Apr = Heavy snow will fall early april, 2nd half of the month will swing from very cold to very hot, close to 30C

May = HP will dominate for most of the month giving wall to wall sunshine similar to May 2012

June = LP will dominate with bursts of southernly plumes , the month will totally contradict June 2015 with southernlys giving a warm feeling

July = Scorcher, record breaking European heatwave will spread.  Heathrow will nudge 42C. Even parts of Cumbria will see mid thirties

August = Scorcher, but wet, dull and cloudy feeling very warm and humid as Europe continues its record breaking heat, Occasional plumes and spikes of very hot.

September = The usual September High will dominate, wall to wall sunshine

October = Stormy and cold

November = Stormy and cold, early winter arrival, severe snowfall across many parts

December = Severe snowfall, white christmas

 

Love the American ending !!!!

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I think the most remarkable month this year will be September in that it will end up being only the sixth September with a mean CET of 16C or above and could sneak into third place in the all time warmest after 2006 and 1729

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3 hours ago, ThundersnowDays said:

Jan: Mild and wet with a few cool spells at the end of the month.

Feb: Cool with strong storms at the start of the month followed by a mainly dry second half.

Mar: Cool with sunny and cloudy days and a few frosts at the end of the month with potential for snow in Scotland/Lakes area.

Apr: The first week may see some snow and chilly conditions across the north and frosts throughout the country but it becomes more mild and rainy as the month goes on.

May: Very rainy with average temperatures across the whole month.

Jun: Less rainy than May with the potential of some thundery showers in the third week but still no notable hot spells.

Jul: The month will start poor with below average temperatures and rain but will surprise us with a warm second half and a thundery outbreak across the Central South/South East.

Aug: The month will start warm with a plume around the 10th bringing some strong thunderstorms going up the centre of the country that week it will also bring a couple of 30.C + days in England. The month will then stay dry and warm making it one of the best Augusts in a while.

Sep: Will still be warm with thundery showers at the start however change will be on the way with a dull wet end.

Oct: Will be cloudy , quite wet and boring with a cooler spell around Hallowe'en.

Nov: Will be like late October and generally getting colder with widespread frosts and snow as far south as the Midlands towards the end.

Dec: Will start off cold with a couple of ice days and heavy snow in the north with flurries and a bit of snow in the south but it will turn milder and wetter towards Jan 2017.

 

And maybe me!

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I am a great believer in things balancing themselves out in general warm weather followed by cold conditions and vice versa, wet spells followed by dry spells. So I'll be surprised if 2016 continues in similar vein to how 2015 ended i.e. predominantly wet..

Pure speculation based on the fact for a balancing out of recent conditions, i.e. plenty of dry weather at times, never especially extreme cold or warmwise, but not without a few notably milder and perhaps colder than average spells, the former more so in the summer, the latter the spring.

Jan - Around average overall, colder weather reserved for the second half, another wet month unfortunately and perhaps stormy at times, but quietening down a fair bit later on.

Feb - A generally quiet month, quite dry with plenty of frost, some snowfall at times perhaps a lot of high pressure out to our west.

Spring 16 - yes could be a cold and dry one, not as extreme as 2013 but perhaps a lot of easterly influences.

Summer 16 - fairly decent, plenty of warm sunny dry weather at times, interspersed with showery outbreaks, but never consistent.

Autumn 16 - generally mixed, a lot more variety, cyclonic at times, perhaps an early snowfall.

Dec 16 - much drier than Dec 15, 'faux cold' as some may describe it.. lots of frost but not necessarily snowy.

Edited by damianslaw
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A mild year, on a par with 2015. Possibly the warmest? Slightly favourable perhaps.

January - Very mild and unsettled but not on the scale of December.

February - More average but still rather mild. More settled, frosty spells than has been experienced but these will be interspersed with unsettled rainy periods. Slightly milder than average February concluding by far the warmest winter on record.

March - Unsettled, cool showery periods. A little on the cold side

April - Average or below average temperatures

May - Warm or very warm and dry

June - Warm or very warm and mostly rather dry

July- Quite unsettled and slightly warmer than average

August - Very warm but I suspect unsettled to go with it

September - Warm and generally settled

October - Just slightly warmer than average and unsettled

November - Near normal temperatures

December - Perhaps slightly on the cold side.

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My guess

 

january: wet 1st half, drier 2nd half, maybe a cold spell on 25th jan.

february: at times mild, at times cooler then average but not excessively cold. Maybe some snow esp. in northern UK

march: cold. Not that cold like 2013 but another very cold march. 3-4th week will be wet with temperatures around average

april: cold and wet. much snow in northern regions

may: Extremely wet (maybe recordbreaking) and very cold. No sign of summer this month.

June: say hi to european monsoon. In SE-UK some short-during episodes of hot weather followed by thunderstorms. Month will be near average for SE. cooler then average in northern and west UK.

July: Temperatures below average in north central west and east UK. Only the SE (SE of London) will experience some warmer episodes, but short-during and followed a day later with thunderstorms. This isn't the summer we want. And i forgot to mention, it will be a wet month.

August: In the beginning of august a hot week, but followed by some wet and cool episodes. Temperatures around average, rainfall above average.

September: warm and dry. Best month for summerlovers.

October: very warm and very dry: 2nd best month for summerlovers./

November: dry start, wet end. Temperatures around or below average. Winter will start in the last week of nov.

December: Cold and wet. Snowrich month.

2016 will be wettest year ever recorded BY FAR, and i believe it will be a colder then average year. I expect the wettest spring and summer ever recorded. A cold spring and cool summer. Only autum will be drier en warmer then average.

 

 

 

Edited by Lakigigar
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2016 will be a very horrible year and the hottest on record at 15.5C CET.  The Globe will average 16C making it the hottest year on record Globally.  This summer the polar jet reaches the Artic, dies and leaves a "weak polar stream" swirling around a dying Greenland PV.  The subtropical jet also reaches the Artic and replaces the dead polar jet.  A main "weak subtropical stream" swirls around the North Pole whilst an even weaker "weak subtropical stream" merges with the last "weak polar stream" swirling around the dying Greenland PV.  The African Monsoon Trough finally jumps the Sahara and Mediterranean into Europe and affects Britain and Europe from the 1000mb to the 500mb level with an outflow ridge on top to form the British Monsoon system.  The British Monsoon forms a monster Mid-Atlantic Ridge and a monster Bartlett Ridge sending heatwaves to obliterate the last of the Artic Ice.  Britain always remains mild if not very mild in winter and always remains hot if not very hot in the other seasons but swings from flood to drought so many times you just can't keep up!  Britain gets monster floods from the interaction of the British Monsoon with Spanish Plumes which also create Supercell Thunderstorms and F5 Twisters.  However Britain also gets monster droughts when ex-hurricanes and/or rare "weak stream" troughs send the monster Mid-Atlantic Ridges toppling over Britain and merging into the monster Bartlett Ridges.

January the warmest on record 9.5C

February the warmest on record 10C

March the warmest on record 12C

April the warmest on record 14C

May the warmest on record 17.5

June the warmest on record 20.5C

July the warmest on record 22C

August the warmest on record 21.5C

September the warmest on record 19C

October the warmest on record 15.5C

November the warmest on record 13C

December the warmest on record 12C

2016 will be the Bob Beamon Year of CET Warming.  :(

Edited by Lettucing Gutted
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I guess this is only a bit of fun so here goes.

January - Slightly milder than average and wet, but most of the rain will fall during the first half of the month. Drier and cooler to finish.

February - I genuinely feel this will be a cold month  (CET around 2C). The will be some pretty potent cold snaps with snow for many areas at times.

March - A fairly cold month with the continued risk of cold and snowy spells, albeit probably short lived.

April - Probably slightly below average, again some cold weather with snow at times in the north. A fairly sunny month with some stark variation in temperature at times as a mobile pattern allows for cold northerlies followed by some warm southerlies.

May - A warm and fairly dry month, 80F will probably be breached for the first time this month.

June - Near normal with any hot weather being brief.

July - I expect a decent July here with one significant spell of hot and sunny weather (Lasting 5-7 days). There is the risk of thundery outbreaks from the south and ore general westerly based convection for the rest of the month.

August - Similar to June, fairly average and would round off a decent summer, better than last year at least.

September - Standard high pressure spell at some point of the month. Temperatures slightly above normal.

October - Fairly mild and wet at times, the risk of some storms at times.

November - This month will likely have a spell of settled and foggy weather during the month, the rest will probably be unsettled. Temperatures near normal.

December - Starting unsettled but a few factors we can look at as potential winter drivers do favour cold. So maybe a big switch to cold, wintry weather could occur during this month.

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I agree with that, same feeling: cold spring and cold winter next year. Probably a major one

Edited by Lakigigar
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January - tad below average a significant cold spell as the month draws to a close.

February - I see this month to be exceptionally cold, with persistent  bursts of northerlies veering more continental as the month progresses, thinking a Greenland high scenario.

March - Winter continues, for many with several snow events with Atlantic trying to put on a fight. Constant easterlies ect, very wet in the SW where mild air is never far away. 

April - the Atlantic eventually breaks through, a very cool very wet month the wettest month of the year potentially. April showers aplenty. 

May - A quite cool start before turning warm temperatures widely in low to mid 20's by a Spanish plume.

June - I see this month to be near average, some thunderstorms outbreaks in latter half. 

July - A very hot month could challenge the 38C+ achieved in Faversham in 2003 

August - Unbearably hot start, London obtaining 6 consecutive days of temperatures about 30C, before turning dramatically cooler again during breakdown, I expect there to be convective thread to be v busy.

September - My birth month one of the most reliable months in the year, I expect it to be slightly above average sunshine well above average, rainfall below average.

October - A quite cool month I sense, a cold spell delivering snow similar to 2008.

November - Well above average temps, incredibly dull stuck under an entrenched Bartlett type pattern. 

December - The first half very mild indeed with constant south-westerlies, very dry then the Euro high ridges to Scandinavia  with frigid easterlies albeit on the dry side. 

Edited by Earnest Easterly*
I hope 2016 is more interesting..

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January and February will generally continue to be rather wet (not as bad as December 2015) but with a few more drier interludes, staying mild but cooler during the drier interludes. Any wintery outbreaks will be reserved to parts of the NE of the UK

March to May, drier but cooler than average, snow around Easter wouldn't be a surprise, expecting a few frosty early May mornings

June to August, cool start, wet in the middle, and a UK wide warm to hot spell come August, SE England will probably have an above average summer throughout.

September will continue the warmer trend but rainfall will be higher than average

October to December, unsettled often stormy in October into November, (expect a few exTS/Hurricane interferences in 2016), colder December than 2015, maybe some snow, wont last to Xmas though.

 

In summary a pretty unremarkable year for lovers of hot summers or cold winters 

 

Edited by swansearob
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Jan- mild and wet though somewhat cooler than December (easiest prediction ever)

Feb- drier than Jan and a bit more frosty, but still milder than average

March- snow at the beginning (a la March 1995) followed by a taste of spring.

April- very mixed, a couple of 20C+ days, a cold snap with brief snowfall, some frost, some showers.

May- continues April's mixed theme- a week of warmth with temps touching 25C ending in thunder, in between a late frost and a cold, bright northerly. (Everything except dull windy 10-15C dross, hello May 2015)

June- thundery. Thundery. Thundery. Not just cold wet and cloudy, THUNDERY. Everywhere. With sunshine when it's not thundering.

July- average, 21-23C maxima, a few warmer and cooler days, benign month.

August. Hot dry and sunny. 30C recorded widely, including here. Both are so long overdue the law of averages states that we must have a decent August. It's been 20 years!

September- first half like August, second half like June.

October- stormy, wettest month, with the first frosts towards the end.

November- dry and sunny. Frosty, bit of snow at the end.

December- dry and sunny. Frosty with a few ice days and snowfalls. Sort of like Dec 2001 but a bit colder. Note Nov and Dec the polar opposite of 2015 (law of averages again).

 

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On ‎02‎/‎01‎/‎2016 at 8:13 PM, Lakigigar said:

 

July: Temperatures below average in north central west and east UK. Only the SE (SE of London) will experience some warmer episodes,

 

 

 

 

You better be joking!

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Just for fun.. I don't really have much of an idea what will happen of course.

Jan: unsettled quite wet first 3rd, colder around mid month,  perhaps some proper frosts arriving and wintry showers in exposure, high pressure ridges in briefly bring some more frost, before it turns milder again, then possibly cooler again late month.. CET ~5C

February: becoming average to mild again with a west/SW Atlantic flow returning for a bit, before turning colder, ending with perhaps the coldest spell of the winter with easterlies in the south. CET ~3.5C. 

March: cold, large snow events for central/northern hills like 2013 (though not as severe or cold as 2013). Some snow in the south too, a white Easter possible with a northerly and snow/hail showers. People making comparisons between the first month of 'spring' and the first month of 'winter'.. Maybe the middle or latter third of the month more normal though.  CET ~4C.

April: Kind of lives up to the El Nino reputation, but only slightly colder than usual. Wet, more so in the south. Some snow in North. April Showers actually occur this year. CET ~7.5C

May: quite a mixed month, First hint of summer in the opening days, then cool at times but with a couple warm-hot plumes later. CET ~11.5C

June: Starting a bit nondescript but becoming hot. High pressure and widespread low-mid 30's late in the month. been a while since a notably hot June, so why not this year.. also dry. CET ~17.0C [I don't really expect this, like most of the forecast, but I'm not sure what will happen..]

July: Warm/hot at times (more so early and later in the month), but more unsettled, especially in the middle with rain/showers and thunderstorms at times. CET ~17.5C

August: average to warm and mixed (some settled and some unsettled spells), maybe a cool northerly to end the month.. CET ~16.5C

September: pretty average, not so much like recent years with no real 'September high'.. a strong low (Ex hurricane) at some point. CET ~14C

October: October sees the September high, before a more unsettled 2nd half with some thunderstorms in the south like 2013. CET ~11.5C.

November: A wet month, but a different set up to 2015. Lows diving further south and the jet more NW-SE at times. No Euro High, some lows tracking through central/southern areas with a snow event to central or northern Britain on one low's northern side. CET: ~6C

December: With La Nina possibly in progress, a coldish month (but not as cold as 2010). Cold coming mainly from the north, especially early. Snow in places, such as those exposed to showers. More normal temps at times though. CET ~2.5C. 

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