Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Thunderbolt_

Atlantic Storm #6 - Frank

Recommended Posts

Storm Frank has been named by the Met Office and the Met Eireann and is expected to hit the UK on Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BBC weather saying Franks central pressure could drop below 930mb but will be heading towards Iceland, would be quite concerning if Frank ploughed into the mainland with that pressure gradient! Won't be affecting the UK directly but the trailing fronts will be dumping a lot of water over areas that have had more than enough and really cannot cope... Winds will also be a feature with gusts around 50-60mph perhaps 70mph in exposure Western UK, for N Scotland and later the N Isles 70-80mph is possible.

Latest Met Office warnings for Frank.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1451260800

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rain looks to again be the main cause for concern from Frank, not so much the winds (though they too will be quite strong). The worry is that weather fronts may come up against the Scandy high and be blocked over the UK. If this happens, then the New Year period could be a pretty dark time. Unfortunately, that is actually what this morning's GFS is suggesting...

 

0900.thumb.png.155b512b39106f89b008bdea11200.thumb.png.ca33364e81315f9a8e0de08a11500.thumb.png.cd566430916d31420241afcfc1800.thumb.png.c85fed7f2f77511f3adbf6e122100.thumb.png.70dc7b3fdaaee3834e9ffe8820000.thumb.png.22fa2490bcfbb130508048eeb

Wednesday could be a pretty wet day...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NetWx 6z rainfall totals for 6z Wednesday to 6z Thursday, I've seen worse charts but there isn't anywhere for that water to go apart from straight down into the already very high water courses, the ground can't take any water in. 

ac19.thumb.png.21de13f78c67358f600bcbbc6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Rain looks to again be the main cause for concern from Frank, not so much the winds (though they too will be quite strong). The worry is that weather fronts may come up against the Scandy high and be blocked over the UK. If this happens, then the New Year period could be a pretty dark time. Unfortunately, that is actually what this morning's GFS is suggesting...

 

0900.thumb.png.155b512b39106f89b008bdea11200.thumb.png.ca33364e81315f9a8e0de08a11500.thumb.png.cd566430916d31420241afcfc1800.thumb.png.c85fed7f2f77511f3adbf6e122100.thumb.png.70dc7b3fdaaee3834e9ffe8820000.thumb.png.22fa2490bcfbb130508048eeb

Wednesday could be a pretty wet day...

bbc  weather    saying it could slowdown or even stall  over  the flooded area  not  good news at all

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

UKMO looks grim with the rain band looking stalled for many hours.

ukmo24.thumb.gif.3bc990fab9cf6a66d3dac56ukmo25.thumb.gif.9244624229e2cf31602e5eeukmo26.thumb.gif.ab6b298191e4a7af2c6f092

Very strong winds around Frank's core, 100km/h+ mean 10m speeds.

ukmo27.thumb.gif.4957629f4af0714020a94b2ukmo28.thumb.gif.71a7892017725b7d1d2dbf8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

So what was the name of the system that gave the terrible flooding across northern England?

It didn't have a name because there was no disruptive wind element for a wide area so criteria not met to get named windstorm status, Frank may produce wind gusts towards 70mph in the west and 80mph in the far north combined with the heavy rain. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

It didn't have a name because there was no disruptive wind element for a wide area so criteria not met to get named windstorm status, Frank may produce wind gusts towards 70mph in the west and 80mph in the far north combined with the heavy rain. 

Odd when you think flooding is by far the most destructive and dangerous of all weather phenomenon ...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Odd when you think flooding is by far the most destructive and dangerous of all weather phenomenon ...

Agree, but the scheme was only launched to give names to Atlantic windstorms. I know it's on a different scale but the NHC wouldn't name a tropical storm or hurricane if it was just a rain event, it is based on wind speed potential. I'd be more concerned about the amber & red warnings that were in force than whether it had a name or not. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think they need some kind of text alert system ,as a lot of folk I know are not aware of the met warning map !!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I think they need some kind of text alert system ,as a lot of folk I know are not aware of the met warning map !!

I'm signed up the email alerts, you can choose your particular area of the country and when warnings are issued you automatically get an email.  Don't think theres a text service, unless you get them with the Met Office weather app. 

Anyway let's get back to the discussion on Frank... 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

It didn't have a name because there was no disruptive wind element for a wide area so criteria not met to get named windstorm status, Frank may produce wind gusts towards 70mph in the west and 80mph in the far north combined with the heavy rain. 

Was Desmond? The centre of the storm was near Iceland, the disruptive element was not really the wind but the rain. The media focus was on the flooding. It's garbage this system. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry if this is OT, but can anybody kindly give me a link - if there is one- to Iceland's weather forecasts? In PM so that it's not disruptive?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, mardatha said:

Sorry if this is OT, but can anybody kindly give me a link - if there is one- to Iceland's weather forecasts? In PM so that it's not disruptive?

Link to Icelandic Met Office - http://en.vedur.is/

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Was Desmond? The centre of the storm was near Iceland, the disruptive element was not really the wind but the rain. The media focus was on the flooding. It's garbage this system. 

Storm Desmond warranted amber warnings for wind and red warnings for rain, flooding brought the biggest impacts but wind damage was also a factor. 

Anyway please can we get back on topic, if you want to discuss the named storms scheme there are other threads for doing so... 

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84538-nameourstorms-is-it-a-good-idea/

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will this high pressure keep this low away or this still chance of the track shifting further east? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Aye, his wee brother Finlay has popped over to Skye for the day and has been blasting away quite happily! Nothing as major as tomorrow's blast, but stuff  has been flying around the garden today. I'll tie everything down tomorrow morning and hope we get a downgrade. ( I live in hope! )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, cookie said:

Will this high pressure keep this low away or this still chance of the track shifting further east? 

There aren't any ensemble members wanting to take it much further east at this point. They're all fairly similar without too much variation, but obviously the small differences could make a large difference on the ground - especially for you in the western Isles, as some runs do take it closer by & that would therefore mean stronger winds..

frankensembles.thumb.png.a8e2cf2bfb51ae3

These sort of things aren't easy to call of course though, so need to stay up to date with further runs over the next 24 hours.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Daily Express has a warning of 120 mph winds! This type of scaremongering should be a criminal offence.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thank you Paul. its going to be interesting watch 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

bit worried about frank, boxing day had small river in the gutters from local flooding not far away on the entrance to my housing estate,  hope this does not produce a raging torrent,  i thought boxing day was a rare thing to see flooding in that location, but the same might happen again,  

despite being a storm lover these are not the type of weather events i want,  high winds do not worry me, neither do violent thunderstorms in summer,  but inccessant flooding rains do  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...