Is this the Winter of the future?

[Lake District Blizzards]

 

Remember a few weeks ago seeing a metoffice graphic of christmas day in 2050 with 17c in the south and 14c north

That's pretty much the ways its been all December, and probably much of January too

Point is the associated weather is clearly constant flooding, no sunshine, storms and gales with a raging jet stream

If this is what winters of the future have in store then i fear many places such as the Lake District will become uninhabitable due to constant record breaking flooding. Wettest on records used to last for decades, now they barely last a season or two, in this case one month after the other. 

After winter 13/14 i didnt think we would be seeing an even worse repeat in just 2 years. This really is unchartered territory 

 

[The PIT]

I wouldn't yet jump to gloom and doom. One theory says in the gulf stream shuts down we will very cold winters. Nobody knows what is going to happen for sure.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

21 minutes ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

 

Remember a few weeks ago seeing a metoffice graphic of christmas day in 2050 with 17c in the south and 14c north

That's pretty much the ways its been all December, and probably much of January too

Point is the associated weather is clearly constant flooding, no sunshine, storms and gales with a raging jet stream

If this is what winters of the future have in store then i fear many places such as the Lake District will become uninhabitable due to constant record breaking flooding. Wettest on records used to last for decades, now they barely last a season or two, in this case one month after the other. 

After winter 13/14 i didnt think we would be seeing an even worse repeat in just 2 years. This really is unchartered territory 

 

That's my big fear.  I can see most of NW Englnd and W Scotland having to be abandoned.

[Weather-history]

10 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

That's my big fear.  I can see most of NW Englnd and W Scotland having to be abandoned.

Most of NW England? Come on, when was the last time you heard Manchester or Liverpool extensively flooded? 

[h2005__uk__]

1 hour ago, Lake District Blizzards said:

 

Remember a few weeks ago seeing a metoffice graphic of christmas day in 2050 with 17c in the south and 14c north

 

Have you got a link to this please? Either the actual graphic or the topic of discussion on here. Had a quick Google but can't find it.

[The PIT]

I think this thread brings a whole new meaning to "Winter is over"

AS for being abandoned warmer doesn't necessarily mean wetter. In the end we would adapt and you may see houses that are built on flood plains or places of high risk being built correctly to reflect this.

[Costa Del Fal]

Personally I think anything is pretty mic possible in this world. Often things come in groups, then doesn't happen for a while or is sporadic then comes in groups again. In terms of extensive recorded data, we still really don't know a lot to make firm judgements on the future given the massive past before.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Temperature-wise, quite possibly, but a winter this warm probably won't become the norm within most of our lifetimes.   It depends on how sensitive our climate system is to anthropogenic (human) forcing, and also on the impacts on ocean circulation and atmospheric circulation- a slowdown in the Gulf Stream would make it unlikely to happen this century.

Sunshine and rainfall-wise, probably not.  This December has been exceptionally dominated by tropical maritime airmasses bringing a general shortage of sunshine and exceptional rainfall to Cumbria.  It is probable that in a warmer climate, extreme rainfall events like this will become more common, because warmer air can hold more moisture, but I don't think this level of rainfall in Cumbria will ever get close to becoming the norm.

Edited December 25, 2015 by Thundery wintry showers

[Methuselah]

I agree with TWS - winters like the one we have will not become the norm, for several decades. But, for all those obsessed with snow, well, take a look at this?? I'm sure the BBC doesn't air these programmes, at this time of year, by accident.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b008vrwk/10-things-you-didnt-know-about-3-avalanches

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

Most of NW England? Come on, when was the last time you heard Manchester or Liverpool extensively flooded? 

Slight hyperbole I admit, but the situation at present seems beyond anything I can recall.  That being said, reassuring posts from the likes of TWS and Scott are reassuring.  Thanks chaps, in particular given that it's Christmas Day.

[Lake District Blizzards]

2 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I think people are being a bit dramatic to be honest. One ridiculously mild December in isolation doesn't say anything about future winters at all. This month is so exceptional that it really could have just happened in any year to be honest, a bit like 2010 did. Furthermore, the last time we had an exceptionally mild December (CET above 7C) was 1988, and the averages don't really show any considerable warming for December at all.

If we saw more Decembers with this level of mildness in the next ten or so years, then maybe you could start to question our winters, but one on it's own? No.

Its not just the mildness but the rainfall too. We were told 2009 was a 1 in 1000 year flood. 6 years later and its been beaten. The threat of it being equaled again 20 days later tomorrow is out of this world. 

 

November 2015 was the wettest month on record here. December 2015 has already smashed Novembers amount.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Sort of thread I would start! certainly winters are becoming more low pressure dominated, and milder/wetter, this Dec though unusual, I don't expect another Dec like this, I expect future Decembers to be dominated by westerlies with PM air at times, giving average to mildish weather

[Lake District Blizzards]

4 hours ago, h2005__uk__ said:

Have you got a link to this please? Either the actual graphic or the topic of discussion on here. Had a quick Google but can't find it.

It was just on tv, might have been on countryfile or something similar

[Relativistic]

I don't think anyone should fret. Not yet anyway.

Looking at the EWP, recent rainfall amounts across England and Wales don't at all look unprecedented. In fact it looks quite normal. There are a couple of distinct peaks in that graph (1760s and 1870s) where things look worse than they are today! (Granted, this data doesn't reflect local rainfall totals).

As for temperatures, one only has to look at the CET series, particularly the Little Ice Age, to see that extreme temperature swings have happened in the past. Freak months quite like this one are not a new thing either. May 1833 sits a full 1.2C above second place for the warmest May, and October 1740 is a full 1.1C below the second coldest October. Such freak months have happened before, and will happen again.

For now, I wouldn't worry. Give it 20 years and we shall see where we are at.

[Lettucing Gutted]

I'd stake my life and all my money on this being a future winter of the 2000-2050 period.  However I also stake all my money and my life on even worse winters than this setting in before 2100.  I believe winters in 2050-2100 will start to resemble those of 2000s northern India.

Edited December 26, 2015 by IHaveNoTrueFriendsNow!

[hillbilly]

The worst floods here today since 1968.even eclipsing the 'once in a generation 2012'.I am just hoping that it will be a case of 'two busses at the same time'.Just remember it was only in the 90's all the talk was of 'drought' and Mediterranean summers so things can soon change.Maybe we are just well short of a big volcano erupting to sort things out !!

[PeteB]

To answer the question, no, I don't think this'll be the norm, just in the same way I never believed that summers like 75 and 76 would be the norm.  This is an exceptional period of unprecedented rainfall and I believe that just like the winter of 62/63 and the summers of 75/76, December 2015 will become a point of reference (and pass into folklore)

 

Pete

[reef]

Its important not to confuse synoptics and weather with climate. For example, the same synoptics we've had this month would have produced a record warm and rather wet December 100 years ago just as it has now. The difference is that without the background warming of the last century the CET might have been 8.8C instead of 9.6C by the end and rainfall amounts slightly lower with cooler SSTs and airmasses around then.

What a warming climate can do is affect synoptics so that certain weather types are more likely. More warmth and moisture in the atmosphere may make synoptics we've had this month more likely, so even with only a 0.5C further overall warming globally compared to now, the 30 year CET average could increase by double or triple that in our part of the world. It could (also as mentioned above), lead to a local cooling: just as December has on the 1981-2010 average.

This is why its silly to say a certain weather type would become impossible if the climate warmed further. Even if the globe warmed by another degree compared to now, synoptics like winter 1962/63 would still lead to an extremely severe winter. The background warmth may make such a sustained cold pattern less likely however. 

[damianslaw]

A rather dramatic doom mongering post. Our weather does have a habit of getting into a rut of one extreme of sorts, the wet summer of 2012 springs to mind, winter 13/14 another good case, the dry periods of 1975-76 and more notably 1995-1997 when as some have said there were many forecasting drought conditions would become the norm.

The last couple of months have seen an extremely stubborn synoptical pattern with a locked in long draw moist tropical maritime airflow.. its the synoptics that have caused the record rainfall and mild temperatures. We've has polar opposites in recent years Dec 2010 and Mar 2013 spring to mind - very dry very cold months in the NW.

The effects of the super El Nino I suspect has been the key reason for these extreme synoptics..

I wouldn't at all be surprised to see a lengthy dry period set in now.

[cheese]

Can't speak for everywhere, but here, 2009-2014 were - with the exception of 2012 - all dry years. Some had rainfall totals below 500mm - such as 2010 and 2011.

So no, I don't think this is the new normal. Just a very wet winter, just like some recent winters have been dry, some recent summers wet, some recent summers dry, yadda yadda.

Edited December 28, 2015 by cheese

[Frost HoIIow]

I don't think so. I remember people saying after the extremely wet Autumn 2000 that this would be a regular occurrence but we haven't had an Autumn as wet as that since then. 15 years ago now.

Edited December 29, 2015 by Medlock Vale

[hillbilly]

You can manipulate statistics to mean lots of things but statistics do not always tell how it really feels.All the winters of 1947,1963,1979 and 2010 were all completely different or could you say the extended winter dec to april 2013 was worse than that of 2009/2010,it felt like that to me and it sure is different with your location as here in the hills is another world than 15 miles to leeds or Manchester.It was only in the 90's all the talk was drought and Mediterranean summers,how that has changed !

[Deep Snow please]

It's just a wet winter, they do happen. Trying to extrapolate any more than that is just daft.

There's a realistic chance of snow by mid-January.

[Lake District Blizzards]

2 hours ago, Deep Snow please said:

It's just a wet winter, they do happen. Trying to extrapolate any more than that is just daft.

There's a realistic chance of snow by mid-January.

Its not though is it. Its a record breaking wet winter.  Wettest month on record has been annihilated up here. Only need average rainfall from now on and it will still become the wettest winter on record.

2013/14  became the wettest winter on record and now just 2 years later its probably going to be beaten.  If next year was then the wettest winter on record again, or the year after that, would that not show something is very wrong....

[Daniel*]

On 29 December 2015 at 0:08 AM, Thunderbolt_ said:

I've always heard stuff like this too. People were saying that we would regularly see bitterly cold winters after winter 2009-10 and December 2010. That obviously hasn't happened either, maybe with the sole exception of March 2013.

You missed Feb 2012 it was very cold in eastern half of the country. No one has said that? Although we did have a cluster of cold winters its easy to think summat is up, this run we're having of mild, wet driven winters is not unheard of, we'll get another 1947 one day as well as the opposite to this. The winter is really in its infancy it is too early to say as a whole the winter has panned out, I'm not with this winter of the future malarkey.