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DisruptiveGust

Atlantic Storm #5 Eva

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Met Eireann have named the 5th storm of the season, Storm Eva, which is due to arrive tomorrow evening although impacts will be fairly limited with the worst of the winds over Western Ireland and the far NW of Scotland and later the N Isles.

Met Eireann have an orange alert in force for wind and also a yellow alert, and our own Met Office have a yellow warning in force for wind in the far NW and rain warnings further south. 

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Eva is expected to deepen to around 970mb bringing wind gusts of 60-70mph generally in these areas with a risk of 70-80mph in the far west over Ireland and the far north west of Scotland, gusts for other western areas of the mainland around 50-60mph, through the Irish Sea for example. 

GFS.

gfs42.thumb.png.887b055be8f08057d1d7b90bgfs43.thumb.png.e6b29c3f780a9f47a971dcff

 

ECM showing slightly higher gusts which look at this stage to miss land but it'll be close, the far west of Ireland may see gusts around 70kts on the coast for a time. 

ecmg5.thumb.png.e7329c12186893765c6eb52fecmg6.thumb.png.876a6302703bba1bc388c335

 

 

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Might just be a blip but the 12z GFS has Eva not as deep with nearly 10mb lower central pressure and also a tighter gradient over much of N & W Britain, gusts around 60mph+ perhaps 70mph for Western Ireland and the Western Isles. 

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Then the small secondary feature on Christmas Eve heading into NW England could produce a short-lived period of severe gales.

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all change for xmas heavy rain into boxing day winds gone now but it moves further north than shown could make a really dismal end to the year. Worth watching.

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24 minutes ago, The PIT said:

all change for xmas heavy rain into boxing day winds gone now but it moves further north than shown could make a really dismal end to the year. Worth watching.

Especially if (pending downgrades) the 29th comes off but still a week away by which time it will have downgraded.

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looking  at  the  models  the weather  over  xmas/  new year  is looking horrible  and could get nasty  up to  Jan 3  if the  gfs  is  right  with  the areas  in the  u.k.  with  the flood problems its  the  last  thing they want  at  the   moment

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

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There is a secondary low nipping west on Thursday which will briefly bring some strong winds, gusting 60kts, and some very wey weather to the NW tomorrow.

 

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_6.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.cf8b9a9c93a4b7f2aa0f2ec

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Updated rain warning

Issued at: 1138 on Wed 23 Dec 2015

Valid from: 2100 on Wed 23 Dec 2015

Valid to: 0800 on Thu 24 Dec 2015

Another spell of heavy rain will spread from the west north-west on Wednesday evening, lasting much of the night, before clearing east into the North Sea early on Thursday morning. The rain will be accompanied by gale force south or southwesterly winds, these possibly reaching severe gale for a time, though easing by Thursday morning. Please be aware of the risk of localised flooding and some travel disruption. This is an update to the warning issued on Tuesday to extend the warning area into Cumbria.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Another active Atlantic frontal system will cross east south east wards across the United Kingdom on Wednesday evening and overnight, clearing early on Thursday. The heaviest rain will be over the Southern Uplands, Southern and Central Highlands and Cumbria, with 20-30mm falling in a 9-12 hour period and locally 40-50mm over the hills of Scotland and perhaps as much as 40mm over the higher ground of Cumbria. Some snowmelt over upland Scotland is likely to add to the risk of flooding, mainly in the north of the warning area.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1450915200®ionName=uk

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Updated warning for Friday and Saturday

Issued at: 1147 on Wed 23 Dec 2015

Valid from: 1500 on Fri 25 Dec 2015

Valid to: 2345 on Sat 26 Dec 2015

Outbreaks of rain will gradually spread north across Wales and northern England through the course of Christmas Day, reaching southern parts of Scotland during the early hours of Boxing Day. The rain will be heavy at times, particularly over high ground and will persist through much of Boxing Day. Be aware of the potential for flooding and some disruption to transport. This is an update to the Alert, issued on Tuesday, to include parts of southern Scotland and North Wales. The likelihood of medium impacts is now higher. However, over southern Scotland the likelihood of medium impacts remains very low.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Rain, persistent and heavy at times, is expected to spread north across the UK on Christmas Day and Boxing Day. During Boxing Day the frontal system, bringing the heaviest and most prolonged spells of rain, is expected to become slow moving across the warning area. There is still uncertainty over where the heaviest rainfall will be in the warning area, but around 60 to 80 mm is likely to fall quite widely, with a chance of up to 150 mm locally over high ground. Despite uncertainties in frontal positioning and therefore rainfall amounts, there is increasing evidence to suggest rainfall accumulations will be high enough to cause some moderate levels of disruption. Currently, the highest likelihood of moderate levels of disruption is across England and Wales. This warning will be reviewed this (Wednesday) afternoon and further updates are likely in the coming days as confidence in the forecast increases.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1451001600®ionName=uk

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It's going to be a wet and wild Christmas period and yet again, the usual areas and those who least need the rain look like bearing the brunt.

even here, mainly at the southern extent of the recent wettest conditions we have saturated ground and rivers that are responding very quickly so I really feel for those in flooded communities that must already be at breaking point.

 

 

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Amber rain warning now out for Cumbria on Saturday

Issued at: 1536 on Wed 23 Dec 2015

Valid from: 0015 on Sat 26 Dec 2015

Valid to: 2345 on Sat 26 Dec 2015

Rain will spread northwards across Cumbria during the afternoon and evening of Christmas Day. During the early hours of Boxing Day the rain is likely to turn heavy at times and then persist through most of the day. Be prepared for river and surface water flooding to occur with disruption to travel possible.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

Rain, persistent and heavy at times, is expected to affect Cumbria throughout much of Boxing Day. There remains uncertainty over the exact location and intensity of the heaviest rainfall. However, around 60 to 80 mm of rain is likely to accumulate during Boxing Day, with up to 150 mm possible over high ground. If the rainfall amounts, currently predicted, occur over the warning area, given the sensitivities medium impacts are likely. This warning will be reviewed in the coming days and we recommend keeping up to date with the latest forecasts.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings®ionName=nw&fcTime=1451088000

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With regard to wind speeds in the Western Isles. I am not feeling this as being that big, Gusts of 60 mph maybe 70 mph. Don't the 80 mph some people suspected. 

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84 mph gust at Belmullet Ireland.

13 minutes ago, cookie said:

With regard to wind speeds in the Western Isles. I am not feeling this as being that big, Gusts of 60 mph maybe 70 mph. Don't the 80 mph some people suspected. 

Yes its been downgraded a lot over the past few days. GFS was going for gusts of 90 to 100 mph now 60 to 70 mph with exposed locations likely to see over 80 mph.

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I know the models can't predict the exact wind speeds but that gust of 84mph at Belmullet is about 15mph higher than predicted. 

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Eva won't effect us much at all may sneak a fifty just. Anyway at the moment the 30th is what we need to keep an eye for. Loads of downgrades to come which is the normal proceddure so it may not be much at all come the day. However ever so often say 1 in 20 don't get downgraded.

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Eva has all of a sudden gotten quite noisy in the last 40 minutes on the west coast of lewis.  Average speed currently 43mph with top gust of 63mph about 10 minutes a go. Lots and Lots of rain, again.

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radar looking horrible over  Ireland  hope the north of the  uk ready not looking very nice at all

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think we should start worrying  the new year  eve  storm  this  one looking like a monster 

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50mph sustained here now, making an absolute racket of a noise in and outside the house. top gust just over 71mph so far, thank goodness it got downgraded from the model runs of a few days ago :)

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Murder here too - scared my windows are going to come in - and I'm nowhere near the north west!

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