C.E.T. forecasts for January, 2016

[J10]

I'll go for 5.0c

 

 

[Evening thunder]

Hmm, was tempted to go for the same as my December guess (6.5) and hope for better luck, but feel it may be a bit cooler so I'll try 5.4C please.

[Roger J Smith]

The table of entries has been moved over to the scoring thread here:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=5

 

Edited January 4, 2016 by Roger J Smith
table moved

[Relativistic]

I'll nudge mine down a tad to 6.5C, assuming that that's possible without penalties.

[Timmytour]

Hi Roger....can't see my choice of 3.8C from the second page (18dec) in the post where I was trying to understand some of the stats put up (which turned out to be a copy and paste error) ?

[SLEETY]

6.1c

[ditch]

Another mild month, 6.3 me thinks.

[jonboy]

late but 3.3 for me

[Godber 1]

A late 4.2c for me please

[J10]

On 31/12/2015 at 10:32 PM, Roger J Smith said:

J10 -- not sure if we're going to keep using the scoring thread from 2015 or maybe start a new one but as it's over in the "other" forum, I propose to keep this table of entries here until maybe the 4th and then we can store it wherever you want. So anyway, I will be posting this a little before the midnight deadline due to short absences from home base (at what is only  4 p.m.  for me anyway) then I will edit in the last minute entries around 0200h, and keep adding the late entries until we're past the deadline of end of 3rd of January.

Table of entries for CET forecast competition Jan 2016 (with selected means and extremes)

see page 1 of this thread for more extensive data, I am only listing top five January values here.

11.6 .. ... ... ... warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834)

9.9 ... BACKTRACK

9.5 ... I.HAVE.NO.TRUE.FRIENDS.NOW

9.2 ... CARL46WREXHAM

8.5 ...

8.0 ..
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... warmest January (1916)
7.4
7.3 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
7.2 ... WEATHER26, SUMMER SUN, CHRISBELL-NOT-THEWEATHERMAN
7.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... fourth warmest (1834)

7.0 ... SUMMER OF 95 ... ... ... ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1921 (2007)
6.9 ... BLAST FROM THE PAST
6.8 ... PEGG24
6.7 ... STEVE.B, COLDEST WINTER
6.6 ... ED STONE, I.REMEMBER.ATLANTIC.252
6.5 ... MUD_ERROR, RELATIVISTIC STING JET
6.4 ... SUMMER BLIZZARD, FOZFOSTER
6.3 ... VIRTUALSPHERE, MARCH BLIZZARD. DITCH(+1d)
6.2 ... IGLOO
6.1 ... ALWAYS EXPECT RAIN, SLEETY

6.0 ... POLAR GAEL, THE PIT
5.9 ... STARGAZER, MR MAUNDER, STEF, M1CHAELS
5.8 ... HARVE, REEF
5.7 .. LARGER THAN AVERAGE HOBO
5.6 .. RAVELIN
5.5 .. CONGLETON HEAT, SUNDOG, MARK4, SNOWRAY, DUNCAN McALISTER
5.4 .. DON, EVENING THUNDER
5.3 .. BLUE_SKIES_DO_I_SEE, SYED2878
5.2 .. DR HOSKING, BORN.FROM.THE.VOID, ADERYN COCH, FEB1991BLIZZARD
5.1 .. DANCERWITHWINGS, CORRIGAN87, STEWFOX, FROZE WERE THE DAYS

5.0 .. ESSEX EASTERLY, MULZY, STATIONARY FRONT, GAEL_FORCE,  GREAT PLUM, J10
4.9 .. LAKIGIGAR, THUNDERBOLT_
4.8 .. ROGER J SMITH, WEATHER-HISTORY, MARCUS71, CHIONOMANIAC

4.7 .. DIAGONAL RED LINE, COSTA DEL FAL, NORRANCE, KENT CLOUD, DAVEHSUG, MIDLANDS ICE AGE
4.6 .. MARK N, DAVID SNOW, MAN WITH BEARD ... ... ... --- average 2001-15 ---

4.5 .. DAMIANSLAW
4.4 .. BOBD29 ... ... ... ... --- average 1981-2010 ----- and also 2015 CET
4.3 .. EASY-OASY, NIGERIAN PRINCE
4.2 .. CREWE COLD, ART DE MOLE, CAPTAIN SHORTWAVE, SINGULARITY, GODBER1 (+1d) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... --- average 1971-2000 -----
4.1 .. GEOFF.W, ATLANTIC FLAMETHROWER

4.0 .. SIMSHADY, DR(S)NO, AWD, CHRIS.R
3.9 .. JEFF.C, SNOWMAN ... ... ... ... --- average 1901-2000 ----
3.8 .. TIMMYTOUR, MOFFAT ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... --- average 1961-1990 -----
3.7 ..
3.6 ...BARRY
3.5 .. 
3.4 ..
3.3 ... JONBOY (+1d)  ... ... ... -- average 1659-2015 ----- (3.253 is the exact figure)
3.2 .. MARK BAYLEY

3.1 .. DANIEL* , DUNSTABLE SNOW

3.0 ... ... ... ... --- average 1801-1900 ----
2.9 .. ROLLO ... ... ... ... --- average 1701-1800 ----
2.8 ..
2.7
2.6 ... ... ... ... --- average 1659-1700 ----
2.5 .. NN2013
2.4 .. --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained)
2.3 ..

2.2 ..
2.1 ...
2.0 ...
1.9 ..
1.8 .. SEABREEZE86
1.7 ...
1.6 ...
1.5 ...
1.4 ... coldest past 28 yrs (2010) -- tied 64th coldest with 1744
1.3 ...
1.2 ...
1.1 ..

1.0 ...
0.9 ...
0.8 ... coldest past 31 yrs (1985, 1987) -- tied joint 41st coldest with 1768.
0.7 ...
0.6 ...
0.5 ...
0.4 ...
0.3 ...
0.2 ...
0.1 ...

0.0 ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698)
-0.1 ... twentieth coldest (1823)
-0.2 ... nineteenth coldest (1830)
-0.3 ... eighteenth coldest (1820)
-0.4 ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979)
-0.5
-0.6 ... sixteenth coldest (1784)
-0.7 ... fifteenth coldest (1879)
-0.8 ... fourteenth coldest (1763)
-0.9 ... thirteenth coldest (1780)

-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9

-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963)
-2.2 ... GREENLAND 1080
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean in past 148 yrs (23rd, 1963)

      -- this was the coldest day in any month and in any Jan since -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867)

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

_______________________________________________________________________________

 

97 forecasts so far, 3 marked (+1d) are one day late, and median value remains 5.1 ... three are above previous record maximum, one is cold enough to become 5th coldest on record. Will be adding later forecasts as they appear.

 

Hi Roger, I propose that we put in into the existing thread.

A massive thanks for doing this every month, it is really appreciated and a massive help to me.

[Roger J Smith]

Sure thing, if you can move it there, I am finding it difficult to copy things in this new forum format but I am guessing a moderator can move it fairly easily.

Maybe move it after the 4th in case any new late entries are made. If ever there was a case where people closed a barn door after the horse had fled, this month may be it. Or maybe I'm just talking horse-chestnuts.

[Summer Sun]

4.2c to the 1st

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

81 to 10 averages unavailable at the time of posting

[VillagePlank]

Bit late: 4.87C for me, please - or 4.9 if you prefer rounded to 1dp.

[ThundersnowDays]

Sorry for being late.

5.6 please

[Roger J Smith]

1981-2010 Daily CET means, and 1772-2015 daily records

_________________________________________________________

(Summer Sun, to prevent confusion, this is the column you should use vv )

DATE __ MAX (year) ________ MIN (year) _______ CET mean 1981-2010 CET cum  ___ 1795-1824 mean

01 Jan ... 10.8 (1851) ... ... ... ... -5.9 (1820) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.1
02 Jan ... 10.4 (1948) ... ... ... ... -6.1 (1786) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.2
03 Jan ... 11.6 (1932) ... ... ... ... -7.7 (1795) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.8
04 Jan ... 10.5 (1948) ... ... ... ... -9.3 (1867) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.1
05 Jan ... 11.4 (1957) ... ... ... ... -6.5 (1789) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5

06 Jan ... 10.3 (1898) ... ... ... ... -6.9 (1894) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.9
07 Jan ... 10.3 (1890) ... ... ... ... -7.7 (1841) ... ... ... ... ... 3.4 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.4
08 Jan ..... 9.9 (1848) ... ... ... ... -9.2 (1841) ... ... ... ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5
09 Jan ... 10.7 (1998) ... ... ... ... -5.0 (1841) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.6
10 Jan ... 11.1 (1921) ... ... ... ... -6.7 (1814) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5

11 Jan ... 10.1 (1990) ... ... ... ... -5.5 (1838) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.4
12 Jan ..... 9.9 (1976, 2007) ..... -7.7 (1987) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.9
13 Jan ... 10.0 (1796, 1873) ..... -6.6 (1987) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.3 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.3
14 Jan ... 10.2 (2011) ... ... ... ... -7.6 (1982) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.7
15 Jan ... 10.3 (1804) ... ... ... ... -8.5 (1820) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 1.7

16 Jan ... 10.8 (1990) ... ... ... ... -7.7 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 4.8 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.0
17 Jan ... 10.2 (1908) ... ... ... ... -6.2 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.4
18 Jan ... 10.0 (1828) ... ... ... ... -6.1 (1891) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5
19 Jan ... 11.1 (1930) ... ... ... ... -8.9 (1823) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.0
20 Jan ... 11.2 (2008) .. ... ... .. -11.9 (1838) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.0

21 Jan ... 10.8 (1796, 1898)..... -8.1 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 5.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.0
22 Jan ... 10.3 (1878) ... ... ... ... -6.4 (1881) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.5
23 Jan ... 11.6 (1834) ... ... ... ... -8.4 (1963) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.3
24 Jan ... 10.6 (1782) ... ... ... ... -8.2 (1963) ... ... ... ... ... 4.4 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.6
25 Jan ... 11.4 (1846) ... ... ... ... -8.9 (1795) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.4

26 Jan ... 10.0 (1834) ... ... ... ... -7.6 (1945) ... ... ... ... ... 4.1 ... ... ... ... 4.5 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.9
27 Jan ... 10.4 (2003) ... ... ... ... -6.5 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.7
28 Jan ..... 9.8 (1944) ... ... ... ... -6.3 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.3 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.3
29 Jan ... 10.4 (1854) ... ... ... ... -6.8 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.6 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.0
30 Jan ... 10.2 (2000) ... ... ... ... -7.5 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.2 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 2.9
31 Jan ... 10.9 (1868) ... ... ... ... -7.2 (1776) ... ... ... ... ... 4.5 ... ... ... ... 4.4 ..... ..... ..... ..... ..... 3.4

__________________________________________________________________

Just for fun I have added the 30-year mean of 1795-1824 (far right of table) to show how the Dalton did January.

Interesting relative mild spell 19th to 21st (5.1 C all three days) in 1981-2010 data. There is a similar rise in values in the colder "Dalton" period (which had a January mean of 2.6 C).

 

[Roger J Smith]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

4.2c to the 1st

0.6c above the 61 to 90 average

81 to 10 averages unavailable at the time of posting

0.3 below the 1981-2010 average (shocker)

[BornFromTheVoid]

The minimum today is 2.5C, while maxima reached the high 10s, so an increase to about 5.4C is likely on tomorrows update. 

After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at:

6.0C to the 3rd (7.3: +3.1)
6.2C to the 4th (6.8: +2.6)
6.1C to the 5th (5.6: +1.0)
6.3C to the 6th (7.5: +2.9)
6.4C to the 7th (6.8: +3.4)
6.3C to the 8th (5.2: +1.2)
6.2C to the 9th (6.2: +1.9)
6.3C to the 10th (6.7: +2.2)
6.3C to the 11th (6.2: +1.8]
 

Pretty mild conditions coming up, with the forecast CET to the 10th the 33^rd mildest since 1772. That is, oddly enough, the coldest first 10 days since 2011 though.

Edited January 2, 2016 by BornFromTheVoid

[Milhouse]

So even with cooler conditions than of late its still going to be comfortably above average for the first 3rd of the month. The models at face value dont look that mild but i guess its because we are in the absolute depths of winter so i guess one would expect the odd frost by now, and the average would reflect that. Still i am surprised by how above average the coming week will be!

[ChezWeather]

Abit late to the party, but il take a punt with 6.8 

[Woollymummy]

5.4 please x

[reef]

13 hours ago, Milhouse said:

So even with cooler conditions than of late its still going to be comfortably above average for the first 3rd of the month. The models at face value dont look that mild but i guess its because we are in the absolute depths of winter so i guess one would expect the odd frost by now, and the average would reflect that. Still i am surprised by how above average the coming week will be!

It feels like a cooldown (and looks like one) due to how exceptional December was, but is actually still exceptionally mild on its own. It also keeps us on course for the mildest winter ever (the remaining 49 days of winter would need to have a mean of 5.2C).

[Summer Sun]

5.2c to the 2nd

1.6c above the 61 to 90 average

0.7c above the 81 to 10 average

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Hi guys, sorry to butt in

Just started calculating averages for my area, but not sure if I'm doing it right. Here is what I've got so far:

I got these figures by taking the average daily temperatures from Cumulus (1 minute sample averages) and adding them up each day to get a 'running average'

I want to include the running average so I can see the trend throughout the month

So 1st: 5.2 + 2nd: 9.4 / 2 = 7.3 running average, I think I'm good so far here?

I'm stuck on how to get the next average, do I do the same

1st: 5.2 + 2nd: 9.4 + 3rd: 7.4 / 3 = 7.3 running average 

or is it

latest running average (7.3) + latest daily average (7.4) / 2 = 7.3?

Just wondering whether I'm doing this right or not, thanks

 

Not sure if I should've put this in it's own thread.. I've copied the post so it can be deleted and put into a thread if need be!

 

 

Edited January 4, 2016 by Essex Easterly.

[BornFromTheVoid]

22 minutes ago, Essex Easterly said:

Hi guys, sorry to butt in

Just started calculating averages for my area, but not sure if I'm doing it right. Here is what I've got so far:

I got these figures by taking the average daily temperatures from Cumulus (1 minute sample averages) and adding them up each day to get a 'running average'

I want to include the running average so I can see the trend throughout the month

So 1st: 5.2 + 2nd: 9.4 / 2 = 7.3 running average, I think I'm good so far here?

I'm stuck on how to get the next average, do I do the same

1st: 5.2 + 2nd: 9.4 + 3rd: 7.4 / 3 = 7.3 running average 

or is it

latest running average (7.3) + latest daily average (7.4) / 2 = 7.3?

Just wondering whether I'm doing this right or not, thanks

 

Not sure if I should've put this in it's own thread.. I've copied the post so it can be deleted and put into a thread if need be!

 

 

The running average is just the average of the however many days you have, so you add up the values from each day you have and divide by the number of days. So the average for the first 3 days is (5.2+9.4+7.2)/3, which is 7.266 (7.3C, rounded up).

If you're using excel or calc, you can use the AVERAGE function and select the numbers you want to be averaged.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Thanks for that BFTV, cleared it up for me!