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Roger J Smith

C.E.T. forecasts for January, 2016

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This could get ugly ... posting a bit earlier than the usual (20th) in part due to holidays and in part due to the speculation already being shown in the December thread ... will the extreme warmth of Nov-Dec persist, or will changes begin to develop. Here's the historical context and some long-term averages for your interest. I have added CET values for 1935 and 1975 as those followed the current tied for warmest Decembers. I also show Jan 1853 since Nov-Dec 1852 maintained considerable warmth. Also I have added Jan 1899 and 2001 since the previous Decembers to those have managed to keep pace with this year up until yesterday (then they fell away like booster rockets from the moon mission).

 

11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834)

8.0 ..
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5 ... warmest January (1916)
7.4
7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
7.2
7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834)

7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1921 (2007)
6.9 ... sixth warmest (1733)
6.8 ... seventh warmest (1975 CET, followed joint warmest Dec)
6.7 ... eighth warmest (1983)
6.6 ... tied ninth warmest (1898, 2008)
6.5 ... tied eleventh warmest (1686, 1884, 1990)
6.4 ... tied fourteenth warmest (1736, 1875)
6.3 ... tied sixteenth warmest (1846, 1932)
6.2 ... eighteenth warmest (1737)
6.1 ... nineteenth warmest (1989)

6.0 ... three tied for 20th warmest (1682, 1708, 2005)
5.9 ... four tied for 23rd warmest (1759, 1974, 1976, 1993)
5.8 ... three tied for 27th warmest (1804, 1866, 1944)
5.7 .. 2014 CET (tied with 1890, 1938 as 30th warmest)
5.6 ..
5.5 ..
5.4 ..
5.3 ..
5.2 ..
5.1 .. 1853 CET (followed a very mild Nov-Dec period)

5.0 ..
4.9 .. 1899 CET (followed a very mild Dec)
4.8 ..

4.7 ..
4.6 .. --- average 2001-15 ---

4.5 .. 1935 CET (followed joint warmest Dec)
4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 ----- and also 2015 CET
4.3 ..
4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 -----
4.1 ..

4.0 ..
3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ----
3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 -----
3.7 ..
3.6 ...
3.5 .. 2013 CET
3.4 ..
3.3 .. --- average 1659-2015 ----- (3.253 is the exact figure)
3.2 ..

3.1 ..

3.0 ... --- average 1801-1900 ----
2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ----
2.8 ..
2.7
2.6 ... --- average 1659-1700 ----
2.5 ..
2.4 .. --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained)
2.3 ..

2.2 ..
2.1 ...

2.0 ...
1.9 ..
1.8 ..
1.7 ...
1.6 ...
1.5 ...
1.4 ... coldest past 28 yrs (2010) -- tied 64th coldest with 1744
1.3 ...
1.2 ...
1.1 ..

1.0 ...
0.9 ...
0.8 ... coldest past 31 yrs (1985, 1987) -- tied joint 41st coldest with 1768.
0.7 ...
0.6 ...
0.5 ...
0.4 ...
0.3 ...
0.2 ...
0.1 ...

0.0 ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698)
-0.1 ... twentieth coldest (1823)
-0.2 ... nineteenth coldest (1830)
-0.3 ... eighteenth coldest (1820)
-0.4 ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979)
-0.5
-0.6 ... sixteenth coldest (1784)
-0.7 ... fifteenth coldest (1879)
-0.8 ... fourteenth coldest (1763)
-0.9 ... thirteenth coldest (1780)

-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9

-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963)
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean in past 148 yrs (23rd, 1963)

      -- this was the coldest day in any month and in any Jan since -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867)

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Ponder at your leisure, I have added all sorts of extra information this month. As always, your entries are due by midnight or end of the day Thursday 31st December, and with increasing time penalties to end of the 3rd of January 2016.

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6.6C, westerlies to dominate the whole month, jet tracking south at times, a contender for one of the wettest January's on record

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Colder than December for now please, lol!

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4.0c please.

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Don't normally participate in these threads but mild first half being offset by very cold second. I foresee something around the 4.2C mark....much colder than December.

As for Feb....could come out around or below the 2C mark...but that's for another thread! :oops:

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15C.

 

 

 

 

...

Okay, maybe that's a tad high.

I'll go for 7.1C instead please.

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7 minutes ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

Get a feeling that it's going to be up there with November and December, though I doubt it will be a record-breaker or a near record-breaker. I'll go for 6.4C for now.

 

realistic, certainly my thinking

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I'll just add, I think a rolling period towards the end of January where the CET  is close to freezing is a distinct possibility.

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17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'll just add, I think a rolling period towards the end of January where the CET  is close to freezing is a distinct possibility.

I sincerely hope you're right.

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Below is the January CET from 1659-2015 in blue, the 30 year average in red and the linear trend in black.

3Rxbsrp.png

The CET this month is likely to finish as the warmest on record. The average January following the 5 mildest Decembers is 5.1C.

The linear trend for the whole record is +0.48C per century. Following this trend gives a January CET of 4.1C.
The linear trend since 1850 is +0.53C per century. Following this trend gives a January CET of 4.3C.
The linear trend since 1950 is +2.48C per century. Following this trend gives a January CET of 4.9C.
The linear trend over the last 50 years is +1.43C per century. Following this trend gives a January CET of 4.7C.
The linear trend over the last 30 years is +3.96C per century. Following this trend gives a January CET of 5.1C.

At 4.57C, the current 30 year average is the mildest on record for January. Anything more than 3.5C will cause the 30 year average to rise further.

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3.9 for me please

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Will go for 4.7*C, please - a fairly mild start for the mild and warm weather enthusiasts. Then some kind of wave-breaking stratospheric warming event to discharge the cold weather enthusiasts from that overcrowded mild weather jail. 

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Expecting a very cold spell of weather in this month perhaps severe cold in latter part of the month into February due to the stratosphere being so bitter; I feel when it gets probed at very cold air will flood to our latitudes of course it ain't as clear cut as that, but I'm going for a decent 2.1C I confidently expect there to be a big sudden flip in our fortunes. 

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Think it's going to another mild one, so 6.7c please.

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On 17 December 2015 at 7:56 PM, Roger J Smith said:

This could get ugly ... posting a bit earlier than the usual (20th) in part due to holidays and in part due to the speculation already being shown in the December thread ... will the extreme warmth of Nov-Dec persist, or will changes begin to develop. Here's the historical context and some long-term averages for your interest. I have added CET values for 1935 and 1975 as those followed the current tied for warmest Decembers. I also show Jan 1853 since Nov-Dec 1852 maintained considerable warmth. Also I have added Jan 1899 and 2001 since the previous Decembers to those have managed to keep pace with this year up until yesterday (then they fell away like booster rockets from the moon mission).

 

11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834)

8.0 ..
7.9
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.5 ... warmest January (1916)
7.4
7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
7.2
7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834)

7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1834 (2007)
 

Am I reading this wrong....how can 7.0 be the warmest since 1834 when 1921 and 1916 sit above it?

Anyway.... Despite a gut feeling that now mild conditions will persist through the winter I will stick to my Jan and Feb forecast made on 9th Nov in which I predicted a big turnaraound 14-16 Jan and go for 3.8C with a cold second half offsetting a mild first half

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Good spot, I think that is left over from a previous list where I had 1834 and 1934 confused (and that relates to the December records in some obscure way). I am going back in there to fix up the wording. Thanks.

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