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Model output discussion - 1st December onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
23 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Well in my view I think the models are loading for a very active and wintry period as we approach 10th onwards.  Detail still to be decided but I'm reading that at times some pretty cold and active weather will affect all.  It isn't going to be laborious that's for sure.  For me we are still on track for a potentially wintry 10+ days approaching Xmas,

This chart could lead to a pretty wintry set up, I'm pleased with the theme though overall 

Netweather GFS Image 

BFTP

You can see from that chart the northerly won't last long, a few days later we're back into a SW'ly flow, so much like the last cold snap that lasted about 2 days? Suppose it's better than nothing if you're after cold! It's still 10 days away so doubt it's being modelled correctly at this range, we shall see! :) 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

If it's a potential sign of change to a colder pattern/incursion. 

Then the 00z outputs continue to show that potential. 

It's a question of tweaks and alignment. ..and ultimately' the bearing of timing's regarding stay of cold and prolongment.

But that's something to be looking for nearer the time.......

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

I know a few of you have been having problems adding images to posts, so I've made a quick guide:
https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84565-image-posting-guide/

Please ask in there if you have any questions. I've also tweaked the system a bit this morning, so using either of those two methods will use the smaller thumbnailed images rather than huge ones. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Some drier intervals at times in the south for the first few days of next week but further north the risk of gales and some heavy rain remains maybe even snow at times for the high ground in Scotland


Rukm961.gifRukm1201.gifRukm1441.gif

 

 

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
56 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

You can see from that chart the northerly won't last long, a few days later we're back into a SW'ly flow, so much like the last cold snap that lasted about 2 days? Suppose it's better than nothing if you're after cold! It's still 10 days away so doubt it's being modelled correctly at this range, we shall see! :) 

That's 'if' the progression goes on as per the model and as you say its 10 days away, for me it could just as much disrupt ESE.   

 

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

EDIt: UKMO Images are not inserting correctly they keep showing Tuesday's run for some reason

I've fixed this issue now. 

Don't forget also - enter = a double line break now, shift+enter = a single line break. 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Little change in the ECM ens with high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north, leaving us in a westerly flow after Monday some drier spells for the south, especially as the high gets closer away from the south its a continuation of the wet and at times windy weather and temperatures close to average for most parts after a mild weekend though for Scotland snow can't be ruled out especially for the higher parts


Reem961.gifReem1441.gifReem1921.gifReem2401.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:
Little change in the ECM ens with high pressure to the south and low pressure to the north, leaving us in a westerly flow after Monday some drier spells for the south, especially as the high gets closer away from the south its a continuation of the wet and at times windy weather and temperatures close to average for most parts after a mild weekend though for Scotland snow can't be ruled out especially for the higher parts


Reem961.gifReem1441.gifReem1921.gifReem2401.gif

Correct me if I am wrong, but even on those ECM charts the jet is digging a little further South as time goes on with the Euro height anomaly gradually being eroded?

It should at least become 'less mild' as we head towards mid month if nothing else?

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

Zero sign of any kind of Northerly blocking in any model output between now and month end,  this is standard strong El Nino stuff and well forecasted by almost all professional outlets. 

Wet and windy with temperatures dependent on where the Polar jet boundary is as depressions move through. Any snow confined to Northern hills and briefly to lower levels at times.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
32 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but even on those ECM charts the jet is digging a little further South as time goes on with the Euro height anomaly gradually being eroded?

It should at least become 'less mild' as we head towards mid month if nothing else?

Yes temps should return closer to average overall I would think but wide scatter on ECM and it could be we get a mix.

 

Latest 15 days ensemble forecast temperature for London  

 

There are still a significant amount of runs going for something colder albeit they are still in the minority. Significant because you won't get that without some form of signal in FI.

I would be interested to see the postage stamps to see if the colder runs are based on a similar theme.

As John says, there is little consistency except for the lack of blocking the more amplified pattern produces and anything beyond a beyond cold snap from a transient Northerly still looks unlikely out to mid month at least but I also agree there will be more scope for change thereafter with the possibility of a trough dropping into Europe as we hopefully see the demise of the Euro high.

 

I still think we could eek out some wintriness out of the currently programmed amplification but for the sort of established cold most snow lovers want the wait will go on.

I have no idea how the second half of December will pan out overall, especially the final 3rd but I don't see nailed on zonal at this stage and will be looking for the general theme of lowering heights over Europe to strengthen. If we can get a cold spell I think it will be triggered by low pressure diving into Europe.

 

Edit.

@Mountain shadow

While I agree there is little sign of blocking I think it unwise to write it off for the entire month - the models don't even cover the final 3rd of December and at least 5 days of the 15 days they do cover are very unreliable. 

December may well stay zonal overall but I don't see how it can be forecast at the moment based on the MO we see.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
26 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Correct me if I am wrong, but even on those ECM charts the jet is digging a little further South as time goes on with the Euro height anomaly gradually being eroded?

It should at least become 'less mild' as we head towards mid month if nothing else?

Yes mild at first then temps will fall back closer to the average

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yes temps should return closer to average overall I would think but wide scatter on ECM and it could be we get a mix.

 

Latest 15 days ensemble forecast temperature for London  

 

There are still a significant amount of runs going for something colder albeit they are still in the minority. Significant because you won't get that without some form of signal in FI.very much 

I would be interested to see the postage stamps to see if the colder runs are based on a similar theme.

As John says, there is little consistency except for the lack of blocking the more amplified pattern produces and anything beyond a beyond cold snap from a transient Northerly still looks unlikely out to mid month at least but I also agree there will be more scope for change thereafter with the possibility of a trough dropping into Europe as we hopefully see the demise of the Euro high.

 

I still think we could eek out some wintriness out of the currently programmed amplification but for the sort of established cold most snow lovers want the wait will go on.

I have no idea how the second half of December will pan out overall, especially the final 2rd but I don't see nailed on zonal at this stage and will be looking for the general theme of lowering heights over Europe to strengthen. If we can get a cold spell I think it will be triggered by low pressure diving into Europe.

Hi,

 

Can you advise where those graphs can be obtained from? I'd like to look for my part of the World :-)

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
3 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Hi,

Can you advise where those graphs can be obtained from? I'd like to look for my part of the World :-)

Hi, you can find them here http://www.weathercast.co.uk/services/ensemble-forecast.html

:)

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Wonderful charts this morning from the Gfs 00z op run, hope we see some nationwide cold snaps this side of christmas! :):cold:

hgt500-1000 (1).png

hgt500-1000.png

prectypeuktopo.png

ukmaxtemp.png

ukmintemp.png

The fact that you are linking charts in FI shows how desperate things are from a coldies point of view.

I agree with John Holmes that there is no / very little change going forward - yes we may reduce the intensity of the warm anomalies but the outlook is undeniably mild and unsettled.

Model output indicates the possibility of the mildest first 10 days of December EVER recorded.  Sobering...

Meanwhile NAEFS even out in deep FI (yes I know it's FI but with ensembles it's probably a safer bet) shows nothing of interest....

naefsnh-0-0-360.png?0

Edited by mulzy
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Theres always an issue with outputs past T168hrs and the removal of the PV over Greenland. Perhaps its a model bias but often we see the PV forecast to leave and then come the day a chunk is still left there.

In terms of todays outputs a mixed bag with a colder looking GFS 00hrs followed by a much flatter 06hrs run. The ECM is broadly similar to last nights output although a bit flatter and there are complications caused by low pressure which develops on the southern jet stream off the east coast of the USA.

Upstream we do see broad troughing which edges into the west USA, this briefly amplifies sending a lobe of high pressure further east from Canada.

Theres a window which might allow some northerly or nw flow but unlikely to be sustained. The Euro high has made an unfortunate comeback and so not good news for the European ski resorts, hopefully that brief upstream amplitude can deliver some more snow.

Overall nothing stands out in terms of cold potential but I think its pre-mature to write off December as a whole, even within apparent unfavourable background signals things can pop up  which don't always follow the script.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
11 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The fact that you are linking charts in FI shows how desperate things are from a coldies point of view.

I don't think things are desperate for coldies, there is plenty of polar maritime incursions being shown, especially for the north and even a chance of an arctic shot too during the next few weeks. I don't think next week will be anything like as mild as this week and firmly believe there is a trend towards more seasonal conditions with a good chance of a few cold snaps before christmas.:)

Quote

 

 

 

 

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
4 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Overall nothing stands out in terms of cold potential but I think its pre-mature to write off December as a whole, even within apparent unfavourable background signals things can pop up  which don't always follow the script.

Five years ago and I would have agreed with you.

Unfortunately, I just don't feel like things will just pop up in the model output anymore. 

With increasing accuracy in Strat forecasts, GWI, GLAAM etc..  I think we can get greater accuracy out to three weeks even four on where the major troughs and ridges are.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Five years ago and I would have agreed with you.

Unfortunately, I just don't feel like things will just pop up in the model output anymore.

With increasing accuracy in Strat forecasts, GWI, GLAAM etc..  I think we can get greater accuracy out to three weeks even four on where the major troughs and ridges are.

 

The cold snap about two weeks ago was not supposed to happen because of the background signals. I'm not saying some big freeze will just appear but that it would be wrong to rule out some colder snaps.

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
4 hours ago, nick sussex said:

The cold snap about two weeks ago was not supposed to happen because of the background signals. I'm not saying some big freeze will just appear but that it would be wrong to rule out some colder snaps.

I didn't rule out colder snaps though,  I ruled out Northerly blocking. 

Depending where the Polar jet boundary is, hills in the North will see snow and occasionally to lower levels in the North too.

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
10 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

 

Depending where the Polar jet boundary is, hills in the North will see snow and occasionally to lower levels in the North too.

I wouldn't rule out snow occasionally to lower levels in the south too.

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

The cold snap about two weeks ago was not supposed to happen because of the background signals. I'm not saying some big freeze will just appear but that it would be wrong to rule out some colder snaps.

 

Not sure where you get that idea from Nick, the anomaly charts showed this likely to happen at least 6 days prior to it occurring. They also, to my eyes, suggested countrywide cold for 3-5 days. So not a bad predict really. Perhaps you still disagree, I can post the relevant charts to illustrate my post if you wish?

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