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Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

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23 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

John

i would suggest the signal is to muted at the moment - especially in the ENS MEAN to suggest otherwise - changes are just appearing at day 10 so thats the next landmark-

S

By 'muted' do you mean not really there? IMO, you may be right, or you may not; but I can see no real signal for any dramatic change??:)

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18 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

I am not surprised by the model outputs showing a polar vortex-dominated westerly airstream over the UK for the first part of December, as this would be wholly in accordance with the Net-Weather winter forecast, where significant polar vortex disruption isn't expected until during the course of January.

Dare i say it, but not unusual for 1st half of December in most UK Winters; with Scotland and parts of the North receiving the odd PM blast and a little snow.

Bulk standard start to UK Winter imo.

Around 10 days ago i commented about the Euro High also playing a part going forward but i was 'assured' by a prominent member that its influence would wane quite quickly.......hmmm?!

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6 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Time will tell Steve, however at 10 days NOAA give two bites of the cherry so to speak, 6-10 and 8-14, neither have any signal, however slight, at least to my eyes, of any suggestion YET, of the change you mention. Six days from now who knows, so by 7 December they should, if it is going to occur, be showing something? By then assuming that to be correct then both main models should be showing something similar as well and consistently.

Personally John I would not expect the 6-10 day to show anything at this stage but I would perhaps expect a hint from the 10-14 day of an Atlantic ridge and trough further East?

We are talking day 10+ before any potentially noticeable ridge so it should show in the 10-14 over the next day or two if its a genuine signal and then filter down to the 6-10 day.

At least we have potential obstacle to derail the zonal express to look out for.

 

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8 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Dare i say it, but not unusual for 1st half of December in most UK Winters; with Scotland and parts of the North receiving the odd PM blast and a little snow.

Bulk standard start to UK Winter imo.

Around 10 days ago i commented about the Euro High also playing a part going forward but i was 'assured' by a prominent member that its influence would wane quite quickly.......hmmm?!

I think you are absolutely right BB. Apart from 1981 and 2010, I can't remember a December such as what many folks want - it hardly ever happens!

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44 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think you are absolutely right BB. Apart from 1981 and 2010, I can't remember a December such as what many folks want - it hardly ever happens!

I'd add in 2009 (well 2nd half of Dec). But like u say, apart from these years, a typical December looming really.

Edited by Bristle boy
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59 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Dare i say it, but not unusual for 1st half of December in most UK Winters; with Scotland and parts of the North receiving the odd PM blast and a little snow.

Bulk standard start to UK Winter imo.

Around 10 days ago i commented about the Euro High also playing a part going forward but i was 'assured' by a prominent member that its influence would wane quite quickly.......hmmm?!

I think you are absolutely right BB. Apart from 1981 and 2010, I can't remember a December such as what many folks want - it hardly ever happens!

 

 

There's something wrong with the forum here, I know...But - second half of 2009 - I agree...

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1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

That's the 6 to 10 day though isn't it, there could be a large difference if it was just a 10 day anomaly.

Not a huge difference just some with the orientation of the trough and ridging of the HP.  The ext ecm at T360 has the trough dominating the eastern Atlantic, removal of the ridging to the SE and slight ridging into Greenland. Still basically a westerly although not so zonal. Still unsettled over the UK with average temps.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.png

gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_39.png

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Looking a bit closer to the reliable timeframe and there is the potential of severe gales for the weekend and a lot of wet weather once again. The severe gales could be a talking point and and that little secondary low which gets caught up in the jet stream could turn out into a small but tightly isobar low pressure system. 

In a way I don't think having much signs of blocking is a fully bad thing, too often in recent years, there has been too much blocking and Arctic cold therefore tends to be more diluted so in theory a more stronger vortex could lead to more potent cold if/when the vortex gets disrupted. 

There has been hints of perhaps a bit more blocking heading towards mid month but the models have been up and down in terms of how far Southwards that Arctic high gets but as per usual, never rule anything out. 

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Since the upgrade does anybody else have trouble viewing on a mobile(things not fitting on screen)sorry off topic but it's not as easy on a mobile with no comp access

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It should be fine now, just some posts are breakng the page at times, will get that sort of thing filtered soon. 

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just lost a post ,but just waiting for some eye candy ,certainly not boring  and just a hint from tonights gfs run of something a little cooler ,long way out but interesting  patience is the key gang ,let's hope this post arrives in the right place ,cheers .

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GFS 00z is another no go but also very progressive in FI after showing some promise out to day 10.

 

gfsnh-0-384.png?0gfsnh-0-240.png?0

 

So the window of opportunity still exists but the limited evidence so far is till that any attempted blocking will be overrun. That may change as any potential blocking comes into hi res with any luck.

 

The ensembles are just beginning to pick up on the pattern becoming more amplified around mid December for a time and most of them find a little chill here and there though no real sign of sustained blocking. P20 is probably the pick  but even that only manages temporary MLB. Even so, they are cooler and hopefully we can squeeze at least some wintriness out of a more amplified pattern for as long as it lasts through and beyond mid month.

 

Diagramme GEFS

Edited by Mucka
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The threat of one storm seems to have lifted over the weekend with the low tracking to the north but a perturbation does nip across southern Scotland Saturday evening bringing rain and briefly strong winds to northern England gusting around 60kts. The rest of the run isn't particularly noteworthy except perhaps for a south easterly plunge dragging warm air into England. The second batch of dafs will be out by Xmas at this rate. :shok:

Charts weatherbell

 

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_16.png

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_39.png

Edited by knocker
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ECM0-240.GIF?02-12

the north and eastern europe into the freezer greenland very very cold.

be interested to see where that high pressure in the atlantic ends up most likely flattened but nice to see the cold bulding to our north and east if this is correct of coarse.

but the downside would be the temp differences between tm and pm air up and around greenland helping to keep low pressure systems energised.

 

Edited by emotional rollercoaster
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45 minutes ago, knocker said:

The second batch of dafs will be out by Xmas at this tate. :shok:

 

 

Daffs out by Xmas hmm? Well the Ecm has negative uppers across Scotland and Northern Ireland for 9 out of the next 10 days.

8 out of the next 10 days across Northern England

-4 uppers hugging the South Coast day 9/10

Edited by -Bomber-
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13 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

Daffs out by Xmas hmm? Well the Ecm has negative uppers across Scotland and Northern Ireland for 9 out of the next 10 days.

8 out of the next 10 days across Northern England

-4 uppers hugging the South Coast day 9/10

ECM is actually a very good run once again days 9 and 10. Decent amplified ridging west of Greenland at day 10....following on from the 12z of yesterday.

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46 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

Daffs out by Xmas hmm? Well the Ecm has negative uppers across Scotland and Northern Ireland for 9 out of the next 10 days.

8 out of the next 10 days across Northern England

-4 uppers hugging the South Coast day 9/10

 

Streuth negative 850mb temps in December, whatever next. All totally irrelevant of course as the main priority at the moment is total rainfall and the possibility of severe gales.

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16 minutes ago, Nick F said:
 
Still the tendency by day 10 on 00z GFS and ECM ops for the Canadian ridge to have an increasing influence over the far NW Atlantic as it stretches east, though it all goes pear-shaped on GFS as it keeps low heights over Greenland. Looking at the northern hemisphere view on ECM, it suggests the trop polar vortex shifting over to Siberia/far NE Europe by day 10 and this opens the gates for poleward height rises over the N American side + there is a small rise over the pole too.
 
image.thumb.jpeg.8985c0b5f321d771ae10804
 
The troposphere  heights are invariably linked to the stratosphere, yesterday's ECM strat charts show the centre of the PV shifting from Greenland at t+24 towards Barents Sea and northern Siberia at day 10:
 
image.thumb.gif.35a78a2b730c6c2f5feedea9image.thumb.gif.7eb8c6585ee18519003fa876
 
This could, of course, not lead to anything nationwide cold-wise in the next few weeks, but is a signal persistently showing and is a good signal long term unless the models are leading us up the garden path!
 
 

 

Thanks Nick, looking at what you present , I am also encouraged by developing end run of the ECM run. I hope the UKMO will be showing this at day 10. This may be our best route to something colder  for the middle of the month. Just presently amazing warmth in parts NW Europe. My daughter reported 12c  just north of Stockholm  just the other day and that at 7am in the morning and Southern Britain getting one of the mildest starts to winter ever. Warm air advection up the west coast of Greenland should enhance heights over Greenland and should help to shift the polar vortex to a location where a colder supply for most of Europe would I dare say would be welcome for most, especially us cold lovers, the hundreds of Christmas markets throughout Euroland and Blighty, we in the ski resorts and for a seasonal uplifting spirit for all. It will be a bit of a shock when it comes.

 C

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37 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

I agree the talk of Daffs in December when the ecm is showing what is showing is totally irrelevant. Didn't stop you from posting it tho. Whatever next, certainly nothing relevant 

 

It's only meant in jest though, and I thought we were all meant to be having more fun. 

Anyway, as noted above there's definitely a trend to transfer the core of the polar vortex to the Russian/Siberian side of the hemisphere. The latter frames of the ECM also has some weak polar heights, and better ridging into Canada:

ECH1-240.GIF?02-12

 

 

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