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Model output discussion - 1st December onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I'm shocked I would have thought the NAVGEM would have backtracked by now. Normally it picks out a lone solution gets its moment in the sun then goes back into the shadows quickly! The NAVGEM got quite an airing earlier today as I wheeled it out after some rather underwhelming outputs. I still think its an outlier solution and its reputation isn't the best but its nice to look at while it lasts.

I think we might get a bit more amplification upstream to edge things a bit further west but not sure we'll quite get to the NAVGEM solution.

Probably best to moderate expectations and if things upgrade then great.

Consistency is what i,you and others look out for obviously,what is the stats for this model atm,would like to know?

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Consistency is what i,you and others look out for obviouslywhat is the stats for this model atm,wouuld like to know?

Yes but consistency can also be consistently wrong!

Anyway heres the verification stats:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Its called the FNO in that link .

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes but consistency can also be consistently wrong!

Anyway heres the verification stats:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/

Its called the FNO in that link .

Thanks nick,could only find the height anomaly there

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.a45ef8

am new to this so is that on par with ukmo?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Thanks nick,could only find the height anomaly there

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.thumb.png.a45ef8

am new to this so is that on par with ukmo?

The anomaly correlation is out of 1 so its behind the UKMO. Have you not got the panel of options on the left hand side that should give you more things to look at?

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The anomaly correlation is out of 1 so its behind the UKMO. Have you not got the panel of options on the left hand side that should give you more things to look at?

Yes nick,what am i looking for?

   

 

   

 

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Yes nick,what am i looking for?

 

 

 

 

Well you can look at the ensemble verification stats, temperature, bias etc. Theres also the 4 GFS runs stats so you can compare how good they are against each other.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Retro Star Gazer said:

Anyone ? Can word this .

pole cold warm.png

Yes,we need that warm plume(high pressure) to be cut off so we can get that cold air in Europe to advance west to the uk.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Well you can look at the ensemble verification stats, temperature, bias etc. Theres also the 4 GFS runs stats so you can compare how good they are against each other.

Ok nick,i will have toy with them thanks:)

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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

This might seem a small change but this helps to pull the pattern a bit further west and angle that shortwave energy more 

navgemnh-0-138.thumb.png.134688d76e0915b

... can see the big differences this makes if you can clear the low from the upstream trough.

Great assessment Nick and I think I finally understand what a 'negatively tilted low' is from your soundings and why these are beneficial. 

I've heard this phrase so often but only now get it. 8 years on and good to know I'm still picking up the basics.

It's what makes this forum a great place to be during the darker months.

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Posted
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
  • Location: Wellington, NZ, about 120m ASL.
17 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

It aids to push the PV to lower latitudes and disrupts it's normal momentum by splitting the Jet. As we have seen in recent days this is were the models struggle as to where and how much effect this has creating wild swings in the outputs.

 

Not a personal criticism but I find this, along with almost all discussions of AAM to be a bit "hand wavey". I don't understand many of the mechanisms behind AAM and how it affects or is affected by the weather and no explanations I've seen quite cut it. 

I would ask:

1) WHY does it aid to push the PV to lower latitudes? What's the mechanism?

2) HOW does it split the jet? Why would an increase in AAM split the jet?

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Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Very early days on the first run of the day,but our members in NI will be delighted as rain turns to snow later

in the day

C.S

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
35 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

Overnight UKMO 120 :o

could this be a coup for the NAVGEM

image.thumb.jpg.999e3f9986d23431f725cdcb

who remembers jan 13 when the UKMO suddenly flipped to the undercut with a lobe of high pressure over scandi then ECM + GFS followed....

S

A coup for NAVGEM? 

More like blind squirrels and broken clocks...;)

It really is fascinating given we are now only 4 days or 5 days away from such developments and the models are still chopping and changing with no agreement.

GFS still churning out muck as far as those who want colder and/or drier so it is really still a guessing game. 

I think we need UKMO to stay with it this evening and ECM on board by that time if it is to have any real chance.

Meanwhile MetO are forecasting Atlantic mush for second half of the month but all the signals I see are for pressure to build from the SW or in the Atlantic toward mid month Atlantic. Maybe it is a generalisation and they don't expect any high pressure to stick around?

GFS ensembles rolling out. how many will go for a NAVGEM/UKMO type solution?

And while we are asking questions, odds on NAVGEM now dropping any Easterly influence?:laugh:

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS ensembles have a correction (possibly) of the low at 78h (further South) and better disruption against the block pretty much across the board so however they turn out that has to be a positive step toward UKMO.

 

EDIT

So out to 144h there is as  much support for a UKMO type solution as GFS Op itself with another third something in between. However GFS has a much more lively Atlantic waiting in the wings overall, at least for now.

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

According to the GFS (and others of course) another wet weekend is in store with a depression traversing the UK on Saturday and the fronts of another the next day so could well be another 50mm in parts that don't need it. Then next Weds it is currently modelling a depression 949mb approaching the NW of Scotland on a very strong jet. A beady will need to be kept.

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_11.thumb.png.b4340086gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_16.thumb.png.ffcc3cd5gfs_uv250_eu_28.thumb.png.cbabb1c0f5c325

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFS ensembles Northern England

Still trending the right way with the mean slowly dropping and one or two colder runs appearing.

Diagramme GEFS

Edited by Mucka
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 hour ago, Mucka said:

A coup for NAVGEM? 

More like blind squirrels and broken clocks...;)

It really is fascinating given we are now only 4 days or 5 days away from such developments and the models are still chopping and changing with no agreement.

GFS still churning out muck as far as those who want colder and/or drier so it is really still a guessing game. 

I think we need UKMO to stay with it this evening and ECM on board by that time if it is to have any real chance.

Meanwhile MetO are forecasting Atlantic mush for second half of the month but all the signals I see are for pressure to build from the SW or in the Atlantic toward mid month Atlantic. Maybe it is a generalisation and they don't expect any high pressure to stick around?

GFS ensembles rolling out. how many will go for a NAVGEM/UKMO type solution?

And while we are asking questions, odds on NAVGEM now dropping any Easterly influence?:laugh:

I thought the meto mrf suggested colder weather as we head into January?

While UKMO looks nice at 144 its a rainfest for the south in particular.If we could just get the next low in the atlantic to disrupt...

Edited by northwestsnow
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Posted
  • Location: Stratford Upon Avon 82m asl
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: Stratford Upon Avon 82m asl
20 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking at the latter stages of the GEFS anomaly it's still indicating  pressure rises to the west and even the ops is hinting at although of course this is way out in lulu land.

gefs_z500a_nh_57.thumb.png.fa83f11cd023a

Makes you wanna shout? Still all to play for in my opinion...

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Hmmm no posts on ecm? I guess it saves me bothering to look :(

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.html

Looks OK at 120-

and at 144

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

Suprised no one has commented, looks like an opportunity for snow across scotland and the north.

Edited by northwestsnow
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