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Model output discussion - 1st December onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

had the parallel ecm been in operation, things may be a little more positive this morning. the 00z run manages to disrupt the trough south of the uk day 7 (too far south for any snowcover) which draws in some quite cold uppers from the east and the end of the run atlantic system brings an occlusion east which leaves snowcover midlands north.

this seems interesting in setting the envelope for day 7 further south than the 00z op and certainly the gfs output

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Posted
  • Location: Hastings (Seafront)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Hastings (Seafront)

I for one am feeling slightly underwhelmed by this morning's runs, to me they don't show as much promise as a couple of days ago. So I have been looking through the GFS Ens and it took until P20 to find some real eye candy...

gens-20-1-300.png?6gens-20-1-312.png?6gens-20-1-324.png?6gens-20-1-336.png?6gens-20-1-348.png?6gens-20-1-360.png?6gens-20-1-372.png?6gens-20-1-384.png?6

If only... and that low will just sink further south and drag in -12s or better and stall for a couple more days. 

gens-20-0-384.png?6gens-20-2-360.png?6

 

It's a shame it's 2 weeks out but as we know, last week we saw no signs of change until final third of Jan and now we're seeing something a little more promising. Only a matter of time until we hit the jackpot.

Happy cold hunting all!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Potential for much colder weather increases, yes I just read that on the latest update!!:D

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

All is good to my eyes and the bigger picture.

Step 1 to cold is underway, warm air surging towards the pole will upset the status quo and create some nice robust HLB. Whilst this does not impact us directly right now, it is unlikely to disappear anytime soon.

So wth increasing heights to our South West looking likely as we head into January and the MJO sat in a pretty decent place, the stage is surely set for a potential mid Atlantic ridge.

With a probable -AO in place by then plus the vortex being attacked, at the least, from the bottom upwards, a link to drifting heights via Greenland looks very plausible to me.

Suspect it will take us to around Mid Jan but wouldn't be surprised to see more and more of the GEFS members pick up on this in the coming week.

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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Potential for much colder weather increases, yes I just read that on the latest update!!:D

Where can I read that pls Frosty? 

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Where can I read that pls Frosty? 

Here we go https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/64157-meto-uk-further-outlook/?page=78#comment-3309730 

Best to keep further discussion around them in there as not to de-rail the thread. Certainly a promising update, And in line with the broad brush output from the models we can see.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Cheers PM, just beat me to it. As a coldie, this is by far the most encouraged I have been so far and it could get even better soon!:drunk:

I think we need to stop worrying about the next 7-10 days and realise mid to late Jan could bring the goods. :cold:

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
12 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

For Nick (Sussex) - re your MJO query yesterday, yes, view is that despite El Niño additional influence, we are now seeing correlation with modelling and upcoming 6-7-8 phasing. Hope that answers it. 

Is this good news for coldies?

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Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl

Am I right in thinking the '09/'10 big freezes came from mid Atlantic blocking rather that an easterly Scandi block? Not insinuating that we might get cold of that magnitude but from reading this thread these type of blocks are better for cold in that less can go wrong. 

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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

hi

any chance of a new thread before the 12z? Please

 

fromey 

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
20 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Yeah, but the ECMWF Ensemble he posted would probably bring low pressure systems right across the Atlantic to our shores like previous winters in NE USA.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
9 minutes ago, fromey said:

hi. Any chance of a new thread before the 12z? Please fromey 

Hi fromey, A new thread will be opened for the new Month/Year :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol
  • Location: Yatton, South of Bristol

Looks different to the 500mb charts...(please correct me etc) :)

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/681775779294896128

Edited by MPG
wrong link
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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
54 minutes ago, MPG said:

The twitter chart is a snapshot at T348hrs -15days.The noaa chart is the average spread of 6 day ht anomalies from day 8-14days ahead.

You are looking at 2 different models as well- one is ECM based and the noaa is from the American outputs.

In spite of all that though there are similarities if you look at the tramlines-thicknesses-we see a trough over the eastern side of NA extending into the Atlantic.The anomaly coloured dashed lines are just a measure of positive or negative heights against climatoligy.

I hope that helps MPG.:)

 

Edited by phil nw.
typo error
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Posted
  • Location: North Norfolk, Antingham
  • Weather Preferences: Most except high humidity and thawing snow.
  • Location: North Norfolk, Antingham

The easterly is a rare beast that is very difficult to land. Once established e.g 1986, it can be very persistent. But equally it can be snatched away at the last minute. There have been also a few easterlies that having established themselves were then almost immediately overrun from the west. The one that I am hoping to post my first charts on was late January 1972. It went from hero to zero in a couple of days.

c

 

image.jpg

image.jpg

Edited by Weathervane
duplicated charts
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Posted
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)
  • Weather Preferences: Beginning with S ending with W ;)
  • Location: Southside Glasgow (135m)

Only the 3rd time the Arctic region will experience temperatures at or above 32 fahrenheit for the month of December, again shows how amazing and rare this pattern change (?) is especially with powerful Vortex.

Edited by Bullseye
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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
23 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

The twitter chart is a snapshot at T384hrs -15days.The noaa chart is the average spread of 6 day ht anomalies from day 8-14days ahead.

You are looking at 2 different models as well- one is ECM based and the noaa is from the American outputs.

In spite of all that though there are similarities if you look at the tramlines-thicknesses-we see a trough over the eastern side of NA extending into the Atlantic.The anomaly coloured dashed lines are just a measure of positive or negative heights against climatoligy.

I hope that helps MPG.:)

 

Bit pedantic Phil but the NOAA chart from yesterday is not just American based

image.thumb.jpg.75b62369664a0a0b185792be

and the ecm ens mean is from T348 and is 37% cluster. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Bit pedantic Phil but the NOAA chart from yesterday is not just American based

image.thumb.jpg.75b62369664a0a0b185792be

and the ecm ens mean is from T348 and is 37% cluster. 

Thanks BA.Always good to get it spot on,btw 348 was a typo error as i did read the twiitter.:)

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

something to look for ahead of the 12z's is a more marked  transient ridge ahead of the day 9/10 atlantic onslaught which could join with the extension of the scrussian chap to our north (would be good for coldies) or perhaps just hold up the atlantic for a day which would allow pretty cold air to embed at the surface and then the potential for blocking to form in the mid atlantic/greenland locale as this atlantic trough either gets to our east or possibly sinks se across us. tbh, there seem to be so many players jostling for position at the moment that any number of outcomes remain on the table for the middle/end next week.

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