Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Mark Neal.]

GFS has a Shortwave move and zip along Southern England by 156hrs.

[ciel]

31 minutes ago, Mark Parsons said:

Just read and learn mate!

 

I do read, Mark, but that comment is neither friendly nor helpful

Edited December 28, 2015 by ciel

[Hotspur62]

9 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

Cohen has updated his blog for those interested: 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Had a quick browse on Cohen blog and he seems to be hedging his bets a bit when it comes to Western Europe which obviousily includes the UK. A lot I think will depend if heights build to the North of us into Greenland, something that he seems unsure will happen but equally doesn't rule it out either . I must admit I find all the last few day fascinating and with the models really unsure what way to go we are in for a really few interesting model watching days before we find out what way it goes. 

[Eskimo]

Whatever happens, it's nice to see the jet so far south!

[Ice Day]

6 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

That's 5 posts just up to T156 with different scenarios lol........frenzy and drama come to mind lol....I'm going to sit back and watch this soap opera unfold...hope it ends in snowwwwww

Knocker's going to be tutting massively and shaking his head reading these posts!!!!

Anyway, back to the models and no pub run heroics tonight.  It's all a bit of a non-entity by 186hrs

Edited December 28, 2015 by Ice Day

[Carlrg]

That Scandi block looks really impressive!

 

[Mark Parsons]

11 minutes ago, ciel said:

I do read, Mark, but that comment is neither friendly nor helpful

Sorry ciel I wasn't trying to be unfriendly or unhelpful just saying it as it is, I from experience can only say that you get the hang of it if you read enough of it!

[Cheese Rice]

2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

ECM- Midlands northwards and I suspect we're talking widespread 6 inches, probably up to a foot of the stuff by end of play across parts of Scotland. A very snowy day 8&9.

Good job I'm in Leeds on a 210m high hill through the whole of January!

Anyway the GFS is unfavorable for any low lying areas in the north, not even a question of snow in the south. We need the cold air to dig west but even if we were to see the -5 line touch Britain it looks like the block is in an unfavorable position to allow the cold air to reach southern areas.  

The outlook is very messy and if I'm honest not the best outlook for snow lovers, yes frontal snowfall can deliver but I've seen many times it delivering cold rain for the majority (with the usual BBC bashing for forecasting widespread snowfall). There isn't going to be cold air embedded in place so while my location does well from these marginal setups I'd be weary of anywhere further south or west. 

Edited December 28, 2015 by Cheese Rice

[Nouska]

22 minutes ago, ciel said:

I do read, Mark, but that comment is neither friendly nor helpful

Hi,  -what would you like clarified and maybe we can point you to something that will help your understanding. If it is snow you are interested in - your location should be very favoured if the likes of ECM deterministic verifies.

[nick sussex]

The GFS 18hrs run is far too flat over the USA and Canada. I can't see both the ECM and UKMO  being wrong at T120hrs over there.

Even with its flatter pattern is does have the jet further south than the earlier 12hrs.

[Eskimo]

We always seem to forget about the parallel, near enough the same as the ECM, just with a much deeper low at 192h!

ECM



GFS(P)

[bobbydog]

massive difference at 240-

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by bobbydog

[knocker]

25 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Whatever happens, it's nice to see the jet so far south!

Oh I don't know about that

[blizzard81]

I have to say that it looks as though us coldies have lost the first major battle of this winter. The main reason for this is the very unfortunate trend for heights to build over southern spain in the 9 to 10 day time frame. It is something I noticed on the ECM 12z and now the 18z GFS has carried on that trend. BA also alluded to this earlier on with regards to the ecm ens. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Yes Knocker its going along the channel then 90deg turn down to the Med, that's south

 

BFTP

Edited December 28, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[knocker]

Still showing 80kt gusts on the eastern quadrant with plenty of rain

[492]

On 27/12/2015 at 7:23 PM, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

Damienslaw - GP kept reffering to a persistent northwesterly flow - nothing about a continental flow ....

Anyway my comments on tonight -

overall things remain very positive - the 3 steps to cold from the east in the UK are 

* eastern europe 

* Central europe

* Western europe ( obviously lol ) with step 3 the hardest to forecast & the most volatile

I would score the ECM 8/10 tonight -

why?

well its not the classic big draw Easterly we hoped for - a la 91 however all that means is the convective snow threat may be off the menu -

However , to get widespread snow in the UK it requires an element of the atlantic being present with the polar front straddling the UK

The most important element today was for the models NOT to shunt the upper air cold pool NW out of europe into scandi as once its up there its hard to recover any cold -

What the ECM has done is build the ridge over the top towards iceland holding that deep cold over central / western europe- its then on tap to filter into slider systems that are alligned NW SE across the UK

The ECM 192/216/240 has very high snow potential for the UK from frontal snow events & crucially at 240 its looking like theres plenty of sustainability post that timeframe

so often do we see cold hitting the UK at 168 only to already be seeing the end at 240

very exciting charts at the moment however FI still at 120-144 leaves stage 3 open to a lot of volatilty

we could still hit the jackpot chart at 192 but also still miss the deep cold altogether....

exciting times in a period of blocking not forecast by anyone as theblock has developed well before NYD....

S

Although I am unable to reproduce the fax charts here I have just toggled between the latest T+96 and the T+120 and was surprised to see such a dramatic westward extension of the cold air towards the UK by Saturday.

[Eskimo]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Oh I don't know about that

Even that's not bad, that would send pressure pressure to the south of the UK. 

[bobbydog]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I have to say that it looks as though us coldies have lost the first major battle of this winter. The main reason for this is the very unfortunate trend for heights to build over southern spain in the 9 to 10 day time frame. It is something I noticed on the ECM 12z and now the 18z GFS has carried on that trend. BA also alluded to this earlier on with regards to the ecm ens. 

mate, if you can call the huge differences in the GFS and the ECM at day 10 a "trend" then if you like wearing skinny jeans you're probably wearing flares!

[northwestsnow]

FAX charts will be interesting tonight

[Carlrg]

We'll see what the Navgem chucks out.

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes Knocker its going along the channel then 90deg turn down to the Med, that's south

 

BFTP

Which is not quite the same as portraying a jet that doesn't effect the UK which what I was addressing with my reply

 

3 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Even that's not bad, that would send pressure pressure to the south of the UK. 

I'm not too sure what you mean by sending pressure to the south but depressions tend to run along it smack bang over the UK or tracking just to the NE. Neither option is particularly good news.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

mate, if you can call the huge differences in the GFS and the ECM at day 10 a "trend" then if you like wearing skinny jeans you're probably wearing flares!

Have you been on the happy juice or something! If you read my post properly, you will see that I was making reference to a specific locale!

[Nick F]

12z EPS mean and control had copious high latitude blocking, the new EC32 trickling out now - so be interesting to see what that brings.

The 12z London EPS still looking encouraging with sfc temps, the det. running with the average - so lots of colder options in them 51 members.

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Which is not quite the same as portraying a jet that doesn't effect the UK which what I was addressing with my reply

 

I'm not too sure what you mean by sending pressure to the south but depressions tend to run along it smack bang over the UK or tracking just to the NE. Neither option is particularly good news.

I literally said, the jet is further south than it normally is, which is a good trend. I don't know what you are grasping at here.