Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[bluearmy]

the gfs is certainly trending away from what coldies want to see. Generally, the pendulum needs to swing back and forth rather than heading in one direction. 

As far as the meto updates telling you where we are headed in the longer term, I can remember only a handful where they publically commented on wintry weather coming before we were fairly confident on here. of course, given our propensity to be not wintry, they are generally right to keep their counsel, especially with the express ready to proclaim the next ice age at the drop of a hat.

 

 

 

 

[Smiler1709]

We all know the gfs loves the Atlantic so when it has churned out a few runs of more Atlantic driven filth it's not really a surprise. Good thing is the Russian block is still in place and there will be swings west and east as to where it will make base. Remember we're looking for trends not a forecast of what will exactly happen on this or that day. Again people need to look at the bigger picture which is the northern hemisphere is changing as we enter January so all to play for. 

[nick sussex]

Just now, winterof79 said:

Quite correct Nick.It appears that some on here will never learn that taking a model out put,that runs three times a day,at face value is futile.

The GFS 06hrs run has actually strengthened the Russian block . As long as that block holds firm the Atlantic energy will be forced to head se'wards.

Its clear theres a pattern change going on. Unless people have forgotten the 2 month Euro high slug.

Theres zero chance of any cold with the Euro high in charge so personally I'm in the glass half full view, good riddance to that Euro high!

 

 

[Polar Maritime]

The 6z out into the run continues to show the jet sink South.  

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[IDO]

The GFS is consistent with a pattern change so despite what FI shows, this will change run to run, there is far greater potential for some cold and snowy conditions, although transient. For instance on this run:

As many say, sink the jet, get the cold uppers in and see what happens?

[Liam J]

Small kick in the teeth from the GFS as the last 2/3 runs now have been trending the wrong way, probably not too surprising given a lack of overall ensemble support, hopefully it'll backtrack quickly towards the Euro's later today. ECM & UKMO vs GFS normally ends well for the Euro's but much rather see all 3 on board for piece of mind! Nail biting stuff waiting for the 12z's!! 

[snowking]

6 minutes ago, Tim Brawn said:

So my 1st post , Love reading all the views even if I understand little ,  All I will say is Iove the cold and snow and after weeks of waiting and listening to all the so called experts I wonder how you can all be so wrong , every week you say its going to get cold , it doesn't and just keeps on raining . Why do so many predict cold weather and how call the websites get it so wrong , the 10 day forecast swings wildly each day , if its not accurate why bother , all this sience and the best they can do is prob about 96 hrs after that its a guessing straw clutching game

 

Hi Tim and welcome!

I think that's a fair point. The advice I would give to you is to define in your own mind who the 'experts' are (probably worth bearing in mind that with a few exceptions nobody in here is meteorologically trained) and also that generally come the winter time this particular thread really becomes the 'search for cold' thread. And after a lot of disappointing winters over the last couple of decades 'coldies' will try and grab hold of any potential cold spell, no matter how far into the distance it is, in the hope that we can bring the next <insert famous cold spell here> to the UK's shores.

And this is where I come back to the choosing carefully who you consider to be an 'expert'. It's not that the members posting about every cold scenario are not experts, it's just interpreting it as 'this is a possibility' (and in a lot of cases, usually a small possibility), which is often exactly how it is meant. On the flip side we also have a few members here who prefer things on the mild side and often in the run up to cold spells they will do their own straw clutching as they desperately will the cold away.

So, this leaves a few members in the middle who will generally offer an unbiased overview of what the conditions actually hold in the forthcoming 10 days and those who even go above and beyond this to look into medium-range trends using all sorts of clever atmospheric physics-y things.

I won't name names on either side of the camp here, I would just advise taking the thread for what it is - an emotional rollercoaster, generally more of a search for cold and a bloody good place to be once we finally do get one of those epic cold spells of years gone by to our shores so that we can put @nick sussex's prozac away and bring out some of his fine cuban cigars to smoke instead as a Will Smith Independence Day style victory dance.

Enjoy!

SK

[gottolovethisweather]

4 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Unfortunately but as expected signals of cold are slowly being dropped.

Hmmm, I'm not expecting it, seasoned model watchers and experienced posters alike aren't expecting the cold signal to disappear either, so why are you? Ali, not trying to chastise you here as we all learn from experience but you are discussing but only one NWP run in isolation, look at the broader picture and a change of sorts is on its way come January. It will be a matter of just how long it lasts, where the air is sourced from and whether a drier picture develops. I am not anticipating brutal cold and snowfall but I am anticipating something much chillier for once. 

Take care now and eyes down for the more reliable 12zs later today. 

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Rollo]

My mind goes back to the and of January 1956 when the only information I could glean was from the DWR I got frpm the met office,obviously they were a day 

or two old by the time they arrived but pressure was high to the North East but the outlook kept repeating temperatures around average,hardly a hint of the cold gathering on the near continent,

In fact when the cold rolled in I believe on Feb the first it was totally unforecasted,things have improved somewhat since then but it seems that the hardest type of weather to forecast is anything 

from the East.

 

[mulzy]

39 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Wasn't the 10% in relation to a full blown easterly though, not the slider scenario the ECM shows.

This is still 50:50 for me as it's still basically the US models v the Euros, the 6z changes nothing. Isn't it also the least reliable of the GFS runs?

I would rate the slider

ECM London temperature ensembles probably the best set this winter....

 

[knocker]

49 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Knocks, after experiencing such a prolonged wet spell by then, what leads you to believe any ridging from the Azores back into northwestern parts of Europe, now showing at the end of the ext eps, would only be temporary in nature? Is it basically only a brief respite from the wind and rain that we can deduce from this? 

I probably shouldn't have stuck albeit temporary in but the EC32 was showing the influence for about a week. But that was then just need to await the update. At the moment I would settle for a week of anticyclonic.

[Weather Boy]

18 minutes ago, IDO said:

The GFS is consistent with a pattern change so despite what FI shows, this will change run to run, there is far greater potential for some cold and snowy conditions, although transient. For instance on this run:

As many say, sink the jet, get the cold uppers in and see what happens?

Those charts are somewhat reminscent of ECM charts at similar range for Christmas Eve which showed even more widespread UK snow.

I need say no more.

[Froze were the Days]

33 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the gfs is certainly trending away from what coldies want to see. Generally, the pendulum needs to swing back and forth rather than heading in one direction.

As far as the meto updates telling you where we are headed in the longer term, I can remember only a handful where they publically commented on wintry weather coming before we were fairly confident on here. of course, given our propensity to be not wintry, they are generally right to keep their counsel, especially with the express ready to proclaim the next ice age at the drop of a hat.

 

 

 

 

100% correct! in all my years online (largely on this site) the meto are always subtle on their updates

[nick sussex]

I'd be interested to know whether the ECM 32 ever suggested the appearance of the Russian block?  It does seem that this going from the NWP wasn't forecast well in advance.

On a side note the latest smoothed out MJO forecast sticking to the progression into phase 7, 8 then 1, 2.

I think some of the seasonal forecasts for January  might bite the dust, those suggesting a continuation of the milder regime at least into the first half.

NOAA do a monthly outlook and this was compiled before the MJO really strengthened on December 17th and was for January 2016. This taken from their outlook.

THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION IS ALSO A POTENTIAL CONTRIBUTOR TO THE
VARIABILITY OVER NORTH AMERICA DURING JANUARY. CURRENTLY, THE REAL-TIME
MULTIVARIATE MJO INDEX (RMM) INDICATES ENHANCED CONVECTION OVER THE MARITIME
CONTINENT. SOME MODELS INDICATE AN EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF A RELATIVELY STRONG
SIGNAL TO THE WESTERN PACIFIC, WHICH WOULD DESTRUCTIVELY INTERFERE WITH THE
ONGOING EL NINO AND POTENTIALLY DISRUPT THE DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE OVER NORTH
AMERICA. THE UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO THE MJO LEADS TO SOMEWHAT REDUCED COVERAGE
AND LOWER PROBABILITIES THAN IF THE FORECAST ONLY CONSIDERED EL NINO AND
DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.

Of course they are more interested in the pattern in the USA but the point they make about the downstream response being disrupted is exactly what we want to see.

If the MJO was expected to be muted out by the El Nino one would think NOAA would have mentioned this. Which begs the question where did the Russian block come from and what caused the PV to elongate to the west?

 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by nick sussex

[Timmytour]

The route to cold is not nailed on by any means but at least there is a swinging on the pendulum now which will give it at least a chance, much more so than the "locked pendulum syndrome"  of the past few weeks.  I'm reminded of the frustration experienced towards the end of December 2012 when what seemed to be a nailed on route to cold did not in fact materialise  (THAT ECM).  I'm by no means confident, but I have a lot more hope than previously that, maybe not next weekend but eventually a route will be found in the current set-up.  If we get the first three months of 2013 again, I'd be very happy with that.

[booferking]

GEFS Ensembles just don,t want to come out

[Hotspur62]

I have just looked at gfs 6z and historically that model as a whole is too progressive with Westward movement of Atlantic lows. What I find interesting is that the Scandi High barely moves in the whole 384hrs and looks pretty strong to me. It is just the alignment of lows modelled on gfs is not great for sliders to occur (apologies if I have misread the angles). It really is fine margins we are talking about but the one negative thing from a coldies perspective and which historically isn't a good sign is the Met Office are not really buying into anything SIGNIFICANT at this stage. A lot of people may knock them, but from past experience on here, until they are properly on board I don't think we will get the snowfeast on here that so many want(and that includes me). I would love that not to be the case and the Met Office be wrong but we must remember as a forum that they have access to so much more data than us  and they have to be pretty much 100% sure of what the future holds before they go public as they have learnt themselves from past experiences when they got it wrong they have been slated!!

 

That said much more positivity if you are a cold fan compared to just 3 days ago and I think as we go through January the prospects will get better for a nationwide snowfeast and for this forum to go into a Happy Meltdown  

[mcweather]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

the gfs is certainly trending away from what coldies want to see. Generally, the pendulum needs to swing back and forth rather than heading in one direction. 

As far as the meto updates telling you where we are headed in the longer term, I can remember only a handful where they publically commented on wintry weather coming before we were fairly confident on here. of course, given our propensity to be not wintry, they are generally right to keep their counsel, especially with the express ready to proclaim the next ice age at the drop of a hat.

I certainly agree with you BA regarding the Meto updates, It has been said on here before but it bears repeating that when push comes to shove the  Meto are a specialist short to medium term forecasting organisation  and as the national forecaster with a reputation to protect (and a very anti meto media to deal with) they will rarely jump for a cold weather scenario way ahead unless it is hitting them over the had with a hammer like Nov2010.

2013 was a classic in terms of this guarded approach. Most of the experienced posters on this forum  could see that the cold was coming and that trough disruption was very likely but the Meto updates were if I recall correctly very guarded. I seem to recall Fergie posting a lot about Shannon entropy lol.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To separate post from quote..

[bluearmy]

21 minutes ago, booferking said:

GEFS Ensembles just don,t want to come out

seen them on weatherbell and they look interesitng. by the end of week 2, looks to be a gradual mean rise in heights right and anomolys across to our north extending towards greenland.

and even more interesting is that the parallel ecm 00z manages to disrupt the day 8 system over the uk rather to our east with a cold lee easterly flow as it sinks se and the day 10 depression, well advertised on ops and means alike approaches a great angle for frontal snowfall for the sw of the uk. how far ne it would get look questionable to me as the really cold uppers are quite close to our ne.

 

[Jeremy Shockey]

Trending to much cooler temperatures from New Years Eve onwards as the jet heads a bit further South. A welcome dry and frosty start for many on Jan 1st 

[booferking]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

seen them on weatherbell and they look interesitng. by the end of week 2, looks to be a gradual mean rise in heights right and anomolys across to our north extending towards greenland.

and even more interesting is that the parallel ecm 00z manages to disrupt the day 8 system over the uk rather to our east with a cold lee easterly flow as it sinks se and the day 10 depression, well advertised on ops and means alike approaches a great angle for frontal snowfall for the sw of the uk. how far ne it would get look questionable to me as the really cold uppers are quite close to our ne.

 

Were still on track i think these lows will dig deeper as time goes on.

[lorenzo]

Re: MJO and associated queries around the anomalous heights over Russia, sorry have not seen EC32 Nick.

GEFS a little wilder on the amplitude vs the others.

Posted these last week regarding the rolled forward MJO phase 6 data. Looking through from 1974 to date in RMM set only returned 3 yrs with individual dates for this phase, 98,88 and 95 - when taking Nino at a conservative above 0.75. It returned around 15 dates and the composite of those dates is below.

Phase 6 period where decent model agreement exists until turn of the year indicates on the composites the Russia / Kara ridge and forward some weaker height rises over Greenland.

@knocker posting the ECM anomaly, more to point the region and not the blackhole thing as I know these annoy you!

 

Mentioned earlier in thread, some of the US guys have been looking at this Russia / Kara ridge and it really is something else. Sam Lillo worked up a historical re-analysis overnight the table can be found here, closest matches 1972, 1996, 2006, 2012.

Then looking at what is currently projected we have these - 

So whilst an imprint from MJO Phase 6 - some form of additional amplification taking place in that region. I read elsewhere earlier the appearance of ridges would prove difficult, well that certainly looks like a considerable anomaly.  MJO will update again via CPC later today for more in depth analysis. GEFS looking like the odd one out vs ECM, UKMO and JMA, with that one would imagine some differences in the NH modelling as a result looking beyond week one.

Anyway enough of Mr MJO -  Frank - our latest monster inbound, warnings galore everywhere today as another episode of Rapid cyclogenesis looms in the Atlantic and we have the ongoing watch for the cold pool orientation and undercuts. Not exactly a boring end to 2015.

 

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by lorenzo

[Nouska]

If they had gone back a wee bit further they would have seen this ....

Went up through all the layers of the stratosphere too.

[knocker]

And talking of height rises over Greenland

@Lorenzo. Kind of you to think of my sensitivities, thank you.

Edited December 28, 2015 by knocker

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Nouska said:

If they had gone back a wee bit further they would have seen this ....

Went up through all the layers of the stratosphere too.

upstream isn't going to look like that though nouska.