Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[phil nw.]

We know the Op runs are very volatile at the moment but it's been a good 24 hrs for cold lovers.ECM now looking at a stronger and better positioned Scandinavian high.

Yes we know verification rates are poor beyond 4-5 days but hey this is great chart watching and isn't it better to see these at the end of December than say mid-February?

 

[snowice]

watch the meto change there tune tomorrow after 240ecm

Edited December 25, 2015 by snowice

[cold snap]

Mr Murr where are you ?

Beast from the east incoming on the ECM ,

Scandinavian high I expect now to verify but any cold activity in these shores still needs some work ,

Ecm shows a possible outcome

 

 

 

[Geordiesnow]

The detail after 144 hours is not all that important because that will change from run to run, the important bit is that the main player of the Scandi high does not sink therefore there is always the risk of the UK eventually getting something colder. 

I expect a different ECM run by the morning and so should everyone else but hopefully the models will still side of not sinking the block and for me at this range, aslong this is the case then it be class as a good run regardless what the details show. 

[Paul White.]

1 minute ago, cold snap said:

Mr Murr where are you ?

Beast from the east incoming on the ECM ,

Scandinavian high I expect now to verify but any cold activity in these shores still needs some work ,

Ecm shows a possible outcome

 

 

 

He has changed his name to "The Chosen One". 

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, cold snap said:

Mr Murr where are you ?

Beast from the east incoming on the ECM ,

Scandinavian high I expect now to verify but any cold activity in these shores still needs some work ,

Ecm shows a possible outcome

 

 

 

Im here:)

[Liam J]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

watch the meto change there tune tomorrow after 240ecm

You think they'll change their outlook (though it would be great) based on one ECM run? Hmmm...There's a heck of a lot more to it than that! 

[Eskimo]

I should be concentrating on family and not on here really but I tell you what, the hopeful pattern change looks a gooden, and it definitely will be a fantastic belated Christmas present for me. I love snow, and I love how snow brings the child out of me. Bring it on! 

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, PerfectStorm said:

Booooooooommmmmmm!!!!!!!!!!

[snowice]

13 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

Right im off to enjoy pie face....

remember the kink in the jet at 144 on the UKMO & ECM is crucial for undercutting !!

 

if only there was an ECM 264 tonight...

s

It is ob1, lets hope for the dark side to win out, dark cold uppers 

[heccygabber]

Not sure why people are getting so excited, it's 10 days away...1%chance of happening

Edited December 25, 2015 by heccygabber

[Jason M]

ECM and METO both very good tonight. Gut feeling is still that we will end up with a near miss as usual but it's nice to have some interest for the first time this season. IMHO were 60 / 40 against but that's a lot better than a couple of days ago.

Meanwhile in the shorter term output were marching towards a CET of around 9.8 for December which will beat the prev record by over 2c. That is truly jaw dropping stuff (and slightly concerning IMHO). It's worth us keeping an eye on the next weeks charts as well as the obvious longer term interest. It's actually conceivable that a CET of 10c is in play 

 

[Mucka]

So as Fergie pointed out, we are seeing the models pick out vaarious solutions each run which in this kind of setup is to be expected.

GFS and JMA go different routes tonight but ECM and UKMO look fantastic.

Could go either way but the signal for Easterly has strengthened somewhat overall this evening.

It is a situation where things can flip solidly in favour of one outcome or the ther overnight though I suspect we will have to wait longer than that for any clarity.

Only a couple of days ago though there was mixed signals as to whether we would even get a decent ridge let alone a Scandi high so we have come quite a long way - still a few miles to tread though.

 

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by Mucka

[radiohead]

17 minutes ago, heccygabber said:

Not sure why people are getting so excited, it's 10 days away...1%chance of happening

Perhaps slightly better than 1%! Though no harm to remember that we've seen plenty of charts like this in the outer fringes of FI that never get any closer to reality than that.

[Cloud 10]

GFS parallel is full of scandi promise...

 

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

GFS parallel is full of scandi promise...

 

Likely we will see the 18z follow the same or similar route tonight then 

[Liam J]

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

GFS parallel is full of scandi promise...

 

6z is old news, hopefully when the 12z GFS parallel updates it will look similar... 

[moffatross]

55 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

but what is looking more certain, some sort of Scandinavian block will occur with very frigid cold air running down the eastern side of it

Sorry to pee on your chips at xmas, but the evolution of any form of northern latitude block in the foreseeable future is far from certain.

[Carlrg]

2 minutes ago, moffatross said:

Sorry to pee on your chips at xmas, but the evolution of any form of northern latitude block in the foreseeable future is far from certain.

I agree. Looks like the Scandi block is going to turn into a Christmas chipolata.

[tinybill]

looking  at the early warning  for the possible bomb   heading our way midweek  things in the uk could get very nasty  lets hope for a slight change if not we could easily be getting 100mph winds

[Frosty.]

Magical end to the Ecm 12z op run this evening, coldies across most of england and wales have had nothing so far this season so we should enjoy these charts when they come along! Change will come sometime in the new year and i'm looking forward to it immensely 

Edited December 25, 2015 by Frosty.

[stewfox]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

I agree with both you and with Ian; I refuse to get over-excited about something that - barring 'lack of data due to reduced transatlantic flights' - isn't even remotely likely to occur within 7 days. But if predictions are still pointing in the cold, snowy, blizzardy direction come Sunday, then a few 'yee haws' might be in order.

This lack of data comes up every year and is refuted every year. someone posted stats recently less 1% and for about 6hrs max i think

[Allseasons-Si]

5 hours ago, Cloud 10 said:

A nice deep plunge in the AO on today's updated GEFS forecast.

 

Have you stolen Knockes crayons again Cloud

well what an eventfull day,it's tiring this Chistmas malarki lol,plus a trip to see my niece at the Hospital which she was born prematurely @ six months and weighed just over two  ponds and she is doing well bless her

anywho's,back to the models and what can i say,yesterday and day before,it was the ecm and ukmo v the gem and gfs and now it's the gfs v ecm,ukmo and to some extent the gem

some great post's in here again today which i find very enjoyable reading so keep it up guys,it's nice to also see Tamara and Ian ferguson post again

what ever the weather(pun intended)enjoy the rest of Christmas day

one final thing,let's see if the 18z gives us one of these

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

UK into the battle zone - cold air squeezing out the mild at day 8

a lovely wedge over scandi- 

watch the ensembles tumble down tonight....

RE ensembles...which is why they're next to useless. Only one member last night went cold. Even if this fails, you'd expect some hint from some perturbations that a cold spell was possible. I did say last night that the suite was pretty unbelievable/suspect.

Edited December 25, 2015 by CreweCold

[Mark Neal.]

Fascinating, good to see mr murr back on here! ECM a peach. 

ECM ensembles soon?