Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[knocker]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

At last we have some interest !! Plenty of room for upgrades over the coming days and the euros have been playing catch up with GFS.

Scandy High looking a good punt and all bets are off medium term, the cold pool to the east on GFS looks brutal - majorpattern change coming for Europe in the new year and hopefully something more seasonal for the UK..

I'm interested in your reasoning behind the highlighted statement.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

I'm interested in your reasoning behind the highlighted statement.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

 

javascript:ParameterUebergeben('./tkavneur.htm?was=1&wann=144','../pics/Rtavn1441.html')

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

The gfs link isn't working but all 3 building heights in that locale?

[Liam J]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Iam

I feel ecm has not been at all interested in a scandy high until this morning?

No Scandi high here, just a queue of depressions with our name on them. 

GFS for same time.

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

No Scandi high here, just a queue of depressions with our name on them. 

GFS for same time.

Have to disagree  the blocking high to the NE is backing the cold pool westwards on ECM and the jet is tracking SE.Watch the 850's progress between 192 and 240hrs.

GFS showing a huge block to the NE ?

Edited December 25, 2015 by northwestsnow

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

 

javascript:ParameterUebergeben('./tkavneur.htm?was=1&wann=144','../pics/Rtavn1441.html')

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1681.html

The gfs link isn't working but all 3 building heights in that locale?

I see Sub Zero has replied but just to say you have taken just frame in the ecm run in a very mobile scenario. If you wind it on a couple of days you get this.

As far as I can see there is really no justification for a Scandinavian high.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

I see Sub Zero has replied but just to say you have taken just frame in the ecm run in a very mobile scenario. If you wind it on a couple of days you get this.

As far as I can see there is really no justification for a Scandinavian high.

No probs, lets see where it goes, im of the opinion the blocking to the NE is forcing the jet se towards europe thus removing the limpet slug.

I cant link GFS but take the 168h chart, is that not a 1045mb scandy high?

Edited December 25, 2015 by northwestsnow

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Have to disagree  the blocking high to the NE is backing the cold pool westwards on ECM and the jet is tracking SE.Watch the 850's progress between 192 and 240hrs.

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20151225/00/prmslOslo.png 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20151225/00/t850control-192.png

The Vortex is living on borrowed time the further we move into the new year.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1

 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20151225/00/prmslOslo.png 

http://max.nwstatic.co.uk/ensimages/ens.20151225/00/t850control-192.png

The Vortex is living on borrowed time the further we move into the new year.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0&carte=1

 

Cheers buddy  the oslo pressure graph backs up my post with quite a few members(inc operational) going for a big block  

[Captain Shortwave]

The issue isn't about developing a high latitude block, it is about the block being too far east to have any direct impact on the UK (As of yet).

The ECM ens now deliver a cut off high which gets centred over Western Russia into week 2.

South east Europe turns very cold as cold air slides west/south west along the southern flank of the high. The UK end up a more mixed westerly pattern as a trough moves east and eventually disrupts against this ridge. As for cold in the UK, it still looks like a slow burner but there will be things to watch out for.

First off we have two strong high pressure  cells setting up, one up the western side of Canada and a second over western Russia, there is a chance these could interact to break the tropospheric vortex in two which could drive upwards and weaken the lobe over Greenland, this could allow the pattern to back west with an easterly opportunity as we move into January. Though these types of high have a habit of driving coldies to madness as they sit in the same spot for weeks on end.

We will see how things develop, I will be watching the battleground between the Greenland lobe and the Russian high very closely over the coming days to see whether we can get any significant headway in developing a cold pattern.

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Cheers buddy  the oslo pressure graph backs up my post with quite a few members(inc operational) going for a big block  

Welcome.I am standing by my early winter thought.

Model output discussion - 1st December onwards posted  4 December

winterof79 replied to Paul's topic in Winter discussion - includes model discussion

Anything at the moment I agree.I just feel that many classic /old fashioned winters follow the same basic pattern with a change around new year and whilst not always a change to extreme cold,there is almost always a definitive change

Edited December 25, 2015 by winterof79

[John Badrick]

22 minutes ago, knocker said:

But yes

I wandered lonely as a cloud

That floats on high o'er vales and hills,

When all at once I saw a crowd,

A host, of golden daffodils;

Beside the lake, beneath the trees,

Fluttering and dancing in the breeze.

But I would prefer a more wintry and festive take on things

Of tallest hollies, tall and green; 
A fairer bower was never seen. 
From year to year the spacious floor 
With withered leaves is covered o'er, 
And all the year the bower is green. 
But see! where'er the hailstones drop 
The withered leaves all skip and hop

[Liam J]

14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

No probs, lets see where it goes, im of the opinion the blocking to the NE is forcing the jet se towards europe thus removing the limpet slug.

I cant link GFS but take the 168h chart, is that not a 1045mb scandy high?

It is yes and the ECM shows it but further east, after T168 the ECM pushes the high even further away allowing depressions into NW Europe with very unsettled weather for the UK, where the GFS keep a SE'ly feed and the high much closer - Which would be great as the risk of further flooding would be greatly reduced. As Phil mentioned earlier caution needed until the ECM buys into it which it may never do, we just don't know. 

Edited December 25, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, John Badrick said:

But I would prefer a more wintry and festive take on things

Of tallest hollies, tall and green; 
A fairer bower was never seen. 
From year to year the spacious floor 
With withered leaves is covered o'er, 
And all the year the bower is green. 
But see! where'er the hailstones drop 
The withered leaves all skip and hop

I am moving more towards this

The first fall of snow is not only an event, it is a magical event. You go to bed in one kind of a world and wake up in another quite different, and if this is not enchantment then where is it to be found?

J. B. Priestley

 

[SLEETY]

be interesting to see if the met office mention anything about colder weather in their next update .

 

[kingdogleash]

On ‎12‎/‎12‎/‎2015 at 2:59 PM, Greenland1080 said:

Eyes down soon for the Sat 12zs my fav set of models of the week....great to see some getting snow today as well...Lets hope the 12zs continue the theme into Xmas week of something more seasonal, PMair an possible snow for some maybe up North....also some interesting NH Synoptics starting to show re the pv after Xmas...One to watch .....Come on12z give me that Xmas day northerly

Merry Xmas everyone! and thanks for the entertainment over the years!❄

[bluearmy]

Good runs and extended ens this morning if you want to find winter.  ECM op finally smells the gfs op coffee from yesterday regarding the pattern to our East but has the Atlantic too strong in the short term. if the systems are less intense in the medium term, more energy will be able to head se. I am generally cautious today and tomorrow re the runs though not dismissive.  Re read GP's post from last night. He anticipated the general theme of the extended eps this morning. 

as as far as the op v ens discussion is concerned, if you have all the data available with clustering etc, the ens are clearly the best tool. However, we don't and we have to the best we can with what is available. That means taking the ops and using the ens mean to try and work out the most likely direction of travel as it currently stands. This is where the new gefs could be a great advance for the average person on here.  Of course, ECM will launch their new ens suite in March which should out perform the upgraded gefs.  

 

[Eskimo]

I'd still like to point out that any cut off high was first forecast by the 'cannon-fodder' GEM? Although it's not set in stone of course, it's looking increasingly likely that we will see a battleground scenario of some sorts. All hail the mighty GEM.

[SLEETY]

06 rolling................

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I'd still like to point out that any cut off high was first forecast by the 'cannon-fodder' GEM? Although it's not set in stone of course, it's looking increasingly likely that we will see a battleground scenario of some sorts. All hail the mighty GEM.

I agree heres to the GEM

Edited December 25, 2015 by booferking

[SLEETY]

big battle looming here between,east and west 

[shaky]

Not looking as good on 06z!!atlantic further east!!

[TSNWK]

Yep! Atlantic barreling through on this run.. Seen enough. Merry Christmas folks. I wish you all health and happiness and remember it is only the weather.. And a search for frozen water falling from the sky.

 

 

[SMU]

No scandi high - but posts the anomaly chart which shows a huge +VE anomaly close to scandi ...

the question isnt whether there will be a High pressure over scandi - its whether the undercut allows the cold to allign west towards the UK - not SW to france or south to Greece....

s

[SLEETY]

but big scandi highh developing,interesting times ahead i think

 

[Liam J]

6z putting Greece and Turkey into the freezer  Popular summer destinations for sunshine & heat, but may be a good bet for some frigid winter weather into the new year...  

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*