Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[seabreeze86]

Merry xmas from the 18z

Truly amazing chart blizzards nationwide, might be gone by morning but i think the pattern is eventually changing and more eye candy will come over the next few days.

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Above average that's for sure.

"Remarkable heat" Now your just being silly!

Rather depends on how you define remarkable but in my book some places 37F above the 1981-2010 average just about covers it.

Edited December 24, 2015 by knocker

[Mucka]

Absolute dream run but all in FI. How many times have we seen an easterly like this modeled but not come off even with all models on board?

Very nice to look at, exciting even, but it is till by far the less likely option. 

[SnOwFeSt]

Epic 18z run in fi. The trend for a truly fascinating battleground period continues.

Which side we fall on will remain to be seen, but I would think with  the huge amount of WAA in the reliable timeframe we would be very unlucky not to see something from this eventually!

[NoTraction]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Absolute dream run but all in FI. How many times have we seen an easterly like this modeled but not come off even with all models on board?

Very nice to look at, exciting even, but it is till by far the less likely option. 

Surely the models dont show the least likely options?

Not 3 times in one day anyway!!!

Happy Christmass All!!!

Edited December 24, 2015 by NoTraction

[ukpaul]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That is what you get when you repeatedly pump WAA for days on end into the Arctic and is why I can't understand the EC32 logic. OK, the UK might not go cold but I think Europe (especially E Europe) has the potential to be put into the freezer. The entire Arctic profile looks to be disrupted over the next week.

All I can think is that EC32 doesn't buy the WAA and that the high will not withstand the onslaught. 

[lorenzo]

Just proper filth from the pub run for Xmas Eve.

 

[Mucka]

Just now, NoTraction said:

Surely the models dont show the least likely options?

Happy Christmass All!!!

 

Given all the output we have knowledge of a stonking Easterly is not the likeliest outcome at the moment but it has become mor elikely today than it was yesterday

 

This chart is about as good as it gets

 

 

Wishing everyone a very merry Xmas, have a great day tomorrow everyone and hope we find an Easterly in our Xmas stockings - are Xmas stockings still a thing? God I'm old.

[A.J]

sensible posts please........ie without the profanity and size 100 font......thanks

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Wow what a chart

 

No data issues here

 

Hey you made me talk it in earlier as the ideal synoptic, retrogression to Greenland. 

Edited December 24, 2015 by Mucka

[cheshire snow]

I think we have just seen the GFS version of that ECM,and we all

Know what happened after that,anyway thank you GFS for a nice

Christmas  present 

C.S

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

From the mildest December to what would be (given the pattern) possibly one of the coldest Januarys

 

Merry Christmas from the GFS

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Happy Xmas Mucka

You too mate  and hope your name is pertinent to the charts come January. 

Edited December 24, 2015 by Mucka

[Ice Day]

I think the 288 uppers make this run deserving of the title, 'That GFS'!

[knocker]

Interesting how the blizzard develops

[Iceaxecrampon]

T+338

#clutchingat #asgoodasitgets

Have a good one #festive

Edited December 24, 2015 by Iceaxecrampon

[Mucka]

If you don't want bringing back to Earth look away now.

 

ECM London ensembles.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

If you don't want bringing back to Earth look away now.

 

ECM London ensembles.

 

Just saying....I've seen the ECM ensembles flip before now. Not quite as much as the GEFS but still, whole suites have flipped within 1 or 2 model runs. They've all been regarding easterly scenarios too.

Edited December 24, 2015 by CreweCold

[bluearmy]

Incidentally, the very end of the ec32 manages to bring a Scandi trough.  The parallel ec46 is fairly tedious from a coldies perspective. 

 

[ricey076]

24 minutes ago, Fat Bloke said:

You all know be gone by morning.

Fat chance

[Mucka]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Just saying....I've seen the ECM ensembles flip before now. Not quite as much as the GEFS but still, whole suites have flipped within 1 or 2 model runs. They've all been regarding easterly scenarios too.

Absolutely, but until ECM is on board best not to get carried away.

[kumquat]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Interesting how the blizzard develops

Unfortunately, mild sector to the SW and the Cambourne shield (made up by the combined warmth of the seals down at Godrevy) make this an unlikely event for you, Knocker.

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Incidentally, the very end of the ec32 manages to bring a Scandi trough.  The parallel ec46 is fairly tedious from a coldies perspective. 

 

But ba you forgot to mention the 8th-16th when the European HP exerts it's influence

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

But ba you forgot to mention the 8th-16th when the European HP exerts it's influence

Yes knocks, we may get a frost!

[Midlands Ice Age]

22 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

 

 

This reminds me of 1947 not the 80's.

It really wont happen will it?

 

MIA