Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Carlrg]

Is that HP in the Med the fly in the ointment.

[radiohead]

Who needs an easterly anyway! Heavy frontal snow thanks to cold air surging from the west.

 

[bluearmy]

The op 18z looks more akin to the parallel 12z.  certainly a stronger possibility than the 06z and 12z gfs ops though even this seems beyond feasible judging by the de bilt extended ens. 

[DAVID SNOW]

31 minutes ago, knocker said:

Today's temp anomaly chart shows the extent of the remarkable heat in eastern N. America.

Above average that's for sure.

"Remarkable heat" Now your just being silly!

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The op 18z looks more akin to the parallel 12z.  certainly a stronger possibility than the 06z and 12z gfs ops though even this seems beyond feasible judging by the de bilt extended ens. 

You have to be somewhat dubious of the ECM ext and the EC32 though.....don't you? If you showed me in isolation and out of context, a synoptic of that period of WAA and the height rises to our E and NE (as is shown by the NWP), I'd bet a good sum of money on a cold spell soon after. I cannot feasibly see a way in which one can be avoided should the predicted set up materialise. This is the UK though I suppose!

[Snowman31]

Quick question please. How do I stop the notifications from popping up on my screen every minute? I went to notification settings and unticked everything and it hasn't worked. It is driving me crazy.

[BlueHedgehog074]

It appears Christmas Eve has put the GFS in a festive mood for the cold and snow weather fans with the possible Scandinavian block next week wanting to beat up the devious Atlantic and its buddy, the Greenland Vortex! While I've not seen the 00Z GFS this morning, both the 06Z and 12Z GFS runs seem to have stuck with similar ideas with Low Pressure systems from the main Atlantic Trough being squeezed South-East into the nearby continent against the blocking over Scandinavia. Some chilly flows from the South-East/East occuring at times as a result. Even though the Atlantic does take over towards the end of the 12Z GFS run with the Scandinavian block knocked further East, the Jet Stream seems to remain on quite a Southerly track to keep us on the colder side of the weather at times. 

Nice as it is to see though (if you enjoy wintry and/or chilly weather), going to remain cautious of its outcome for the time being. Other models, such as the GEM and ECMWF, opposing the GFS's Southerly tracking Low Pressure ideas. But it does show what can happen should be possible blocking to our North-East next week be under-estimated. I suppose some of the key aspects that would help towards GFS's stubborn Scandinavian blocking ideas is have the High to our East/North-East being positioned and orientated favourably to send as much vertical Warm Air Advection as possible Northwards towards the Arctic area while trying to encourage some of very Low heights from the Greenland Vortex to get drawn South-Eastwards towards the UK with the Jet Stream diving to our South towards Southern Europe. Important, too, to get the negative tilt to the Lows out West in the Atlantic (without these being too ball-shaped) to encourage them to slide to our South against blocking to our North-East/East. All of this then helping to provide some chilly Easterlies for the UK (if it's something you still want) on the Northern flank of Lows. Though would also additionally need some cold air to filter Westwards into the UK on the Southern flank of of blocking High between our North or East. 

There has been mentions of the possibilities of a 2 Wave pattern - essentially 2 upper ridges of high heights - that could help bust up the Vortex and/or displace the Vortex pieces (which may or may not help out for cold weather prospects for the UK). Possibly then leading some kind of Stratospheric warming events. Would still kinda fit in with some of the weather forecasters' ideas of more in the way colder weather developing into the 2nd part of Winter. Though would still have to rely on getting enough disruption to the Vortex, especially the Greenland one, to unlock the door to some of the colder weather possibilities. 

In the meantime, looks as though there will be a continuation of unsettled and windy weather, particularly for the North-West, from Lows in the Atlantic with ridging persisting to our South-East/East over Europe. This drawing in a flow between the South and West at times with Southern areas seeing the best of the mildest conditions. Then quite possible that some of the ridging to our East will get drawn far enough North into Scandinavia, though some question marks as to how well it can fight off the Atlantic. Admittedly, for those of you in the North-West in particular, having High Pressure setting up over the UK (or at least over Northern UK parts) would be ideal. 

Still, for those of you who like cold weather, the GFS has certainly been providing an early Christmas present for you. 

Would also like to wish all of you on Netweather a...

Edit: and a Happy New Year. May it be good.  

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by DiagonalRedLine
To add 'Happy New Year'

[Captain Shortwave]

7 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Above average that's for sure.

"Remarkable heat" Now your just being silly!

I don't know, some of the temperatures in the Eastern parts of the US would make for a decent summers day here. 

As for the pub run

It wouldn't take much to see conditions go cold, likewise it wouldn't take much for us to end up with more south westerlies and insane mild weather. How far west can the cold air get is the question. In this run it only reaches Poland with parts of Germany and Denmark around 15-20C milder in terms of 850s on this run compared to the 12z. There is however a second pulse of cold air on this run which will potentially bring even colder conditions to Russia and Eastern Europe in week 2.

The Siberian express is on its way westwards on this run.

Edited December 24, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[feb1991blizzard]

Look at the 18z BA and CC, this could be a stonker!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[John Badrick]

1 minute ago, Snowman31 said:

Quick question please. How do I stop the notifications from popping up on my screen every minute? I went to notification settings and unticked everything and it hasn't worked. It is driving me crazy.

I quite like this new feature, not so much when I realise it's a reply from knocker though, sorry Knocks merry Christmas 

 

[Ice Day]

Looking so much better for Europe, we just need to be patient but I would definitely bank this at 222hrs

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Look at the 18z BA and CC, this could be a stonker!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yes I think we may be poised at 228 hrs. Sub -20 850s casually marching westwards...

[kumquat]

All aboard the Polar, well, (Siberian) Express

 

[igloo]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes I think we may be poised at 228 hrs. Sub -20 850s casually marching westwards...

big race on west vs east with the west winning out on this run i think moscow could well see -20c for the first time in 3 years 

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

All aboard the Polar, well, (Siberian) Express

 

Choo Choo!

[Ice Day]

Extremely cold uppers tantalisingly close at 240.  All for fun but dare I say a firming trend starting to appear?

[Mucka]

If we could get a good cold spell in first half of January it would be quite a turn around when you consider the MetO have been so bullish about no cold they have felt it worthy of a mention in their 30 day forecast.

[knocker]

38 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Knocker.......

Things could be about to change over there.....

As noted in my earlier post.

[feb1991blizzard]

Touch and go but this could be a mid 80s spectacular re-enactment here!!!!!!!

[Fat Bloke]

You all know be gone by morning.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Extremely cold uppers tantalisingly close at 240.  All for fun but dare I say a firming trend starting to appear?

That is what you get when you repeatedly pump WAA for days on end into the Arctic and is why I can't understand the EC32 logic. OK, the UK might not go cold but I think Europe (especially E Europe) has the potential to be put into the freezer. The entire Arctic profile looks to be disrupted over the next week.

[Ice Day]

264 is the chart of the winter, make no mistake

288 uppers.  OMG

 

[Captain Shortwave]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Touch and go but this could be a mid 80s spectacular re-enactment here!!!!!!!

There we go

We can only dream, a snow machine for the east coast and a major frontal dumping for southern counties.

Merry Christmas 

Edited December 24, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

That is what you get when you repeatedly pump WAA for days on end into the Arctic and is why I can't understand the EC32 logic. OK, the UK might not go cold but I think Europe (especially E Europe) has the potential to be put into the freezer. The entire Arctic profile looks to be disrupted over the next week.

Yes - thin sharp upper ridging through the pole = brutality days later - 1987 a classic eg.

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

If we could get a good cold spell in first half of January it would be quite a turn around when you consider the MetO have been so bullish about no cold they have felt it worthy of a mention in their 30 day forecast.

That's the thing with easterly outbreaks and Scandi highs though, they're pretty much unforecastable at 10 day range, let alone 2+ weeks. Even with the most rampant of vortex you can squeeze in a bitter easterly episode.

WOW

Does that classify as 'slam dunk'?

Edited December 24, 2015 by CreweCold