Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[damianslaw]

I've been dipping in and out of model watching in recent weeks..

In the short term - quite an interesting set up, a shortwave spoiler alert so to speak, the charts for Christmas Eve show much potential for a cold Christmas period but alas we have a shortwave set ready to crash the party, but with heights building to the north trying to fight it back.. its a similar set up to 12-14 Dec when we saw a colder pool of air settle over northern half of the country with warm front action slow to move through delivering snow to the north.

I'll continue to dip in and out of model watching in the coming days - pleased Christmas is distracting me in this respect. It all reminds me of December 2013, but unlike then I suspect we are past the peak mid period of the endless atlantic domination, rather than the start, and hold support for much better prospects for colder weather as we move through the winter.

 

What's the betting we will see a white easter this year - very high I feel...

 

Edited December 22, 2015 by damianslaw

[Mucka]

This would fit into the interesting category if not downright scary.

 

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Not much festive cheer from the ECM which went downhill pretty early. The PV just looks far too strong at the moment and even a decent block to the ne would find it difficult to force some trough disruption.

The ECMWF is just cranky because it found out Santa had put him down on the naughty list.

I mean really Santa, what's the matter with you?  Why wasn't that model on the good boy list, huh? The cold weather fans could have had the ECMWF run of their dreams tonight had you done so. That poor, poor, model. 

You better put the ECMWF back on the good boy list tomorrow morning. Or else!

I mean, honestly... putting one of the best performing models down onto the naughty list is seriously uncool bro.

[Eskimo]

lol 

[Allseasons-Si]

Ouch!!!

i have not got my fence repared from Desmond yet,i think i will wait.

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

I've been dipping in and out of model watching in recent weeks..

In the short term - quite an interesting set up, a shortwave spoiler alert so to speak, the charts for Christmas Eve show much potential for a cold Christmas period but alas we have a shortwave set ready to crash the party, but with heights building to the north trying to fight it back.. its a similar set up to 12-14 Dec when we saw a colder pool of air settle over northern half of the country with warm front action slow to move through delivering snow to the north.

I'll continue to dip in and out of model watching in the coming days - pleased Christmas is distracting me in this respect. It all reminds me of December 2013, but unlike then I suspect we are past the peak mid period of the endless atlantic domination, rather than the start, and hold support for much better prospects for colder weather as we move through the winter.

 

What's the betting we will see a white easter this year - very high I feel...

 

And it will be in March

bring it on

the 18z going for cool pm,lets get rid of this sceuro high and MOVE ON.

[Nick F]

15 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just a question Nick,this low height anomaly you suggest pushing into Scandi at day 15,does the 12z eps show a poss height anomaly into the atlantic at that time,some 12z gefs members do show this?

Unfortunately it shows a +height anomaly from Atlantic into SW Europe, a flat zonal flow across the N Atlantic. Upstream, +height anomaly over Canada, -height anomaly over SW USA and much of NE Pacific - typical of El Nino forcing.

[Paul_1978]

3 hours ago, mulzy said:

Does it get much worse than this?

 

It's a long road to cold from there...

Deep PV over Greenland and Euro high is the form horse and it looks that way for some time.  There is no "jam tomorrow" folks...

 

 

Could you get any more cliches in that post? 

[Mucka]

Normally this wouldn't be worth posting but since it's Xmas and we have had nothing to cheer this winter.

 

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Unfortunately it shows a +height anomaly from Atlantic into SW Europe, a flat zonal flow across the N Atlantic. Upstream, +height anomaly over Canada, -height anomaly over SW USA and much of NE Pacific - typical of El Nino forcing.

Which part of Canada are we talking about Nick,NE,N,or NW(+heights),sorry for the questions,still learning as most of us are,do you have charts?

[Polar Maritime]

GFS this evening shows a very stormy end to the year with with a deep Low spinning in from the N/W giving the possibility of blizzards in the North.. It would certainly feel like winter if these charts came off.

Edited December 22, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Which part of Canada are we talking about Nick,NE,N,or NW(+heights),sorry for the questions,still learning as most of us are,do you have charts?

Over central Canada. Unfortunately I can't post the extended (post day 10) ECM charts - as they are not freely available.

Nasty looking low mid next week on 18z GFS, hope that don't come off ...

[Mucka]

A least we can't say the pub run was boring.

It had more floods

A fierce storm

more floods

widespread snow New Years day

More floods

Another brutal storm

More floods

 

 

[nick sussex]

Well finally the MJO expert at NCEP has downloaded the correct PDF file!

His conclusions are that the MJO could force a pattern change over the USA and Canada. More ridging over the NW and the AO trending neutral.

In terms of the GFS 18hrs run personally I hope this is the right trend because it finally removes that Euro slug high and has high pressure to the ne. At this stage I'd rather see high pressure to the ne coming out of Russia to help deflect the jet into Europe and finally bring some snow to the European ski resorts.

Whilst that possible upstream change doesn't guarantee snow nirvana it might at least bring some cooler PM shots and could develop a bit more interest later depending on the response to the MJO.

In terms of the GFS and its possible storms it does have a known bias for overdoing these. So lets hope for a change to something more seasonal but with any low pressure toned down nearer the time.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2015 by nick sussex

[Due South]

MJO is going to 8

[Glacier Point]

14 minutes ago, Due South said:

MJO is going to 8

Which equates to stable, high, +AAM signal, global wind oscillation phase 6 untainted by Indian Ocean convective anomaly. Quite good model agreement for a cyclonic phase to develop, and residual height anomalies centred over the Kara and Barents Seas will tend to force a more negative tilt to the jet. Still no imminent sign of anything unseasonably cold, yet, but this shift in global forcing to a more classical Nino will make life interesting from mid Jan, not least the stratosphere  where we will see some more tangible developments from 11th onwards where a big wave 1 and 2 hit is being lined up.

cfs hovmollers consistently persisting the tropical forcing just east of the dateline suggesting that this +AO / west qbo regime is beginning to relinquish its grip

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Which equates to stable, high, +AAM signal, global wind oscillation phase 6 untainted by Indian Ocean convective anomaly. Quite good model agreement for a cyclonic phase to develop, and residual height anomalies centred over the Kara and Barents Seas will tend to force a more negative tilt to the jet. Still no imminent sign of anything unseasonably cold, yet, but this shift in global forcing to a more classical Nino will make life interesting from mid Jan, not least the stratosphere  where we will see some more tangible developments from 11th onwards where a big wave 1 and 2 hit is being lined up.

cfs hovmollers consistently persisting the tropical forcing just east of the dateline suggesting that this +AO / west qbo regime is beginning to relinquish its grip

Can I be cheeky and ask your confidence level on this please? !!

[Mildcarlisle]

And a classic bombing is being suggested.With so much cold air flowing south,this is not unusual however it can be overlooked by many.These eyes will be paying close attention to developments likes.

[northwestsnow]

Unfortunately it looks like ECM 1-0 GFS.

GFS is just basically wet dry wet dry this morning as the block to the east achieves nothing in the way of slowing down the Atlantic, pretty much nothing for coldies to grasp as it stands.

Maybe ecm will throw a curveball but im not holding my breath.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Sigh. Some of the prima donny, hissy fit posts in this thread (and others) are getting as tedious as this weather. Negative nellys everywhere. The output IS changing. As GP has alluded to, we may be at the pinnacle of this +AO spell right now. The FI of modelling has been hinting at a gradual degradation of the rampant tropospheric vortex for days now. Only the Greenland based segment remains with integrity into Jan. Not good for us in the short term BUT how long (given we'll only just be into Jan) do you think this Greenland based segment can realistically retain its integrity? Indeed, the past 2 GFS runs have hinted it may not remain intact into the second week of Jan.

Edited December 23, 2015 by CreweCold

[Nick L]

Never mind the hunt for cold for now, a further risk of some serious flooding to come over the next 7-10 days in the north. EC is showing 200mm easily for parts of Cumbria during the next week. That storm on 29th/30th needs closely watching as well.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Even on the ECM day 9 chart you can see the cold being displaced slowly more and more into the mid latitudes. SE Europe going cold and that huge mild dome we've been sat in for much of December being eroded from both sides. All good signs going forward.

[JeffC]

29 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Never mind the hunt for cold for now, a further risk of some serious flooding to come over the next 7-10 days in the north. EC is showing 200mm easily for parts of Cumbria during the next week. That storm on 29th/30th needs closely watching as well.

Someone asked me the other day if I'd been away because I looked tanned. I replied, no. I live in the Lake District...it's rust"

We need those 200mm of rain to push off somewhere else, it's getting silly now. Sorry off topic, but I think some communities are close to breaking point.

[Ben Lewis]

1 hour ago, Nick L said:

Never mind the hunt for cold for now, a further risk of some serious flooding to come over the next 7-10 days in the north. EC is showing 200mm easily for parts of Cumbria during the next week. That storm on 29th/30th needs closely watching as well.

Yes, more rain headed to areas that don't need it, although that doesn't mean folk like me should stop concentrating on the hunt for cold, just because more rain is forecast for the NW. 

The ECM day 9 chart as CC pointed out looks an improvement for cold into Europe. 

[MPG]

8 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

Which equates to stable, high, +AAM signal, global wind oscillation phase 6 untainted by Indian Ocean convective anomaly. Quite good model agreement for a cyclonic phase to develop, and residual height anomalies centred over the Kara and Barents Seas will tend to force a more negative tilt to the jet. Still no imminent sign of anything unseasonably cold, yet, but this shift in global forcing to a more classical Nino will make life interesting from mid Jan, not least the stratosphere  where we will see some more tangible developments from 11th onwards where a big wave 1 and 2 hit is being lined up.

cfs hovmollers consistently persisting the tropical forcing just east of the dateline suggesting that this +AO / west qbo regime is beginning to relinquish its grip

Patients required then it seems until January....but until then its more of the same. 

We do see the -5 line over the UK and the PV shunted at 360 on the 0z...:)