Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

Lucky 7 not looking to bad either.

 

New trend prhaps........

 

Agreed, P7..GEFS 00z is very easy on the eyes for coldies but i'm greedy so I ordered P20, hope I have more luck than I do when ordering from Amazon!

[nick sussex]

Barring the brief interest shown by the ECM between T168 and T192hrs the outputs to be frank from a cold perspective are poor.

The suggestions of  a ridge pushing into the Arctic from the Pacific side collapsed quicker than one of those dodgy panna cottas on Masterchef.

I'd urge some caution with the possibilities of the jet getting much further south, longer range model bias in these types of set ups needs to be factored in. The longer range ECM ensembles do suggest a more cyclonic flow edging south however I'd wait to within T168hrs before viewing this as the correct trend.

In terms of the ECM and what looks like a dodgy solution thrown in upstream or one trying to stop me from falling asleep as its thrown a few crumbs of interest even with its mini tease the jet is still far too strong and then it brings back the Euro high to add insult to injury.

Theres no cross model support for the ECM but its a bit strange considering it starts to diverge from the others as early as T96hrs with it slowing down the upstream pattern.

Overall no sign today of anything much colder, the best if the southerly jet does actually verify is something closer to average. The smallest of hopes if the ECM is on the right track but even then you'd need more changes upstream to stop the jet from piling too much energy over the top of its suggested ridge.

I wish I could be more hopeful here but unfortunately the PV just looks too strong and poorly located, we'll see tonight if theres to be a Christmas miracle.

In terms of the ECM upstream solution a bit more on that from the New Hampshire state forecast:

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE OF LONGWAVE TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH AFFECTS TIMING OF IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AND ONSET OF COLDER AIR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. GFS IS THE FLATTEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE MODEL SUITE
WHILE ECMWF IS MOST AMPLIFIED AND SHOWS A SECOND WAVE TRACKING S OF
NEW ENG FRI NIGHT. MANY OF THE GEFS MEMBERS AS WELL AS UKMET SUPPORT
A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION THAN DETERMINISTIC GFS SO WE USED A MODEL
BLEND TO SMOOTH OUT THE DIFFERENCES.

Edited December 13, 2015 by nick sussex

[Ali1977]

Has anyone on here got access to the Glosea model? That will be showing charts towards mid Jan now - if we are going to get a severe cold spell later in Winter it would be nice if it came in Jan rather than slightly watered down late winter/March!!

[Frosty.]

Latest from the experts is  for a very unsettled and windy Christmas week with temperatures around normal for late December and a risk of snow on northern hills which is pretty much what the gfs 6z shows, this indicates to me that the jet will head further south for Xmas week so thankfully it won't be the very mild sw'ly mush we have in the week ahead..my message to all those of you who despise this very mild mush is hang in there and hopefully things will change in january : -)

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Latest from the experts is  for a very unsettled and windy Christmas week with temperatures around normal for late December and a risk of snow on northern hills which is pretty much what the gfs 6z shows, this indicates to me that the jet will head further south for Xmas week so thankfully it won't be the very mild sw'ly mush we have in the week ahead..my message to all those of you who despise this very mild mush is hang in there and hopefully things will change in january : -)

Looking like late January at the earliest just now.

The Met Office monthly out to mid January shows no sign of any significant change to what we have already. 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Looking like late January at the earliest just now.

The Met Office monthly out to mid January shows no sign of any significant change to what we have already. 

Well I wouldn't write off january just yet since it's not even mid December yet!... I know the models have improved over the years but not to that extent and I remain optimistic that we will have a cold spell or two next month at some point! :-)

[Eskimo]

Over the years, I've noticed that the pinnacle of desperation comes from looking at individual perturbations. Really no change for at least the next two weeks if the models are correct. 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Really no change for at least the next two weeks if the models are correct. 

But will the models be correct 2 weeks ahead? Even 3 or 4 days ago were the models indicating significant snow lying across some parts of Cumbria, durham, parts of Ireland and Scotland... No is the answer to that and as for looking at individual perturbations, it's just for fun, coldies need some relief from the very mild mush and I have tried to lighten the mood and will continue to do so! 

[fromey]

The photo shows a very deep area of low pressure in the bearing sea, could this have and impact on the jet or NH pattern may be give it a kick away from what we are seeing now or will it just die away

 

fromey 

[Ali1977]

Maybe some signs of a change high in the strat towards Xmas, let's hope we can strengthen this and break up this PV - not really wanted a 3rd straight winter of mild mush in the South of the U.K.!!

[mulzy]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Well I wouldn't write off january just yet since it's not even mid December yet!... I know the models have improved over the years but not to that extent and I remain optimistic that we will have a cold spell or two next month at some point! :-)

Yes, it would be foolish to write off January at this juncture.

However, we can make a reasonable call for the rest of December and at the moment it's mild and unsettled.  I know at times this thread is a futile 'hunt for cold' but this coming week will see some incredible warmth both night and day - daily CET records under threat.  17C somewhere in the UK is likely this week - that is the headline!  The output is ghastly for folk who like cold weather (see UKMO day 6 chart below) - no point sugar coating that fact!

 

 

[Froze were the Days]

Agreed it would be foolish to write off January so ridiculously early into the winter but we must not forget we are in a powerful el-nino event, the recent weather and fore the foreseeable future wouldn't look good in a 'normal' winter - so in this repect you have to be pessimitic about any severe cold or cold this winter.

[knocker]

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 5m5 minutes ago

So far in December... Europe and U.S. temperature departures from normal

 

[IDO]

Another GFS run and the trend to bring in further waves of mild to very mild uppers continue. On the 12z out of the 16 days about 13 are now showing warmer than average T850s. Finishing with what the CFS has been hinting at in week 3&4 for a while:

Obviously out in la la land but the signal for something along these lines in the ens and extended CFS have been there for all to see. It does look a repeating pattern for the time being (Nov & Dec) and unless other factors reset the NH pattern, it could have legs.

The Christmas Day cold spell has been downgrading run to run and now it suggests a N/S split, wet in the North and mild in the south:

The way the GFS is trending it would not surprise if that rain misses the North and we are all in balmy temps on the big day, but just for fun at the moment.

I will be surprised if the December CET is not above 4c over the normal if the GFS is correct!

Edited December 13, 2015 by IDO

[Daniel*]

Absolutely an appalling run GFS 12z the PV really does swell into a monster and I fail to see a quick escape I wish to forget that run hopefully the evening ECM can offer a 'Christmas miracle' I have my doubts. 

[Chris K]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

But will the models be correct 2 weeks ahead? Even 3 or 4 days ago were the models indicating significant snow lying across some parts of Cumbria, durham, parts of Ireland and Scotland... No is the answer to that and as for looking at individual perturbations, it's just for fun, coldies need some relief from the very mild mush and I have tried to lighten the mood and will continue to do so! 

I always enjoy your positive posts Frosty - a bit of light relief from staring down at charts that makes me check my calendar to make sure it is December...

The models are indeed unlikely to be correct 2 weeks ahead...very unlikely! However it is the overarching NH pattern as well as global influences which are going against our chances of seeing a nice proper cold spell at the moment. Yes we may get some Pm incursions but these look transient at best and most of the time South UK sees only rain and wind rather than snow. Those further North always most likely to see snow from that sort of setup. The cold upper air temperatures are watered down by the time it reaches a reliable time-frame.

I can't help but feel despondent by this repeating push back of "hints of change", be it strat warming and any potential effects, amplification of the Jet, quashing of the Euro High. A few weeks ago there were some hopes that mid-December may bring about some change or at least signs of A change. Well we are here now and still in the same boat in my eyes. The vortex is looking to strengthen and the latest GFS 12z run is showing a lobe latching onto Greenland yet again. The Euro high wants to be a pest for the time-being. In recent model runs, it wants to hold Lows more into the Atlantic...end result of this - mild, SW/Southerly feeds and wet & windy weather that slowly fills over us rather than blasting through. Just what some parts need...stalling bands of rain & showers...

Quite frankly, I'd be happy for a few frosty nights right now...they've been rare for the past couple of years down here...

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Chris K said:

I always enjoy your positive posts Frosty - a bit of light relief.

Thanks, much appreciated. 

[January Snowstorm]

I would think Wed evening before we can see the trend for Christmas day. Simply too far out yet.

I wouldn't be too despondent. My wise old years tells me that patterns don't hang around forever and this current one has to be burning itself out soon.

At least we've had some storms to talk about whereas most of Europe has been stuck under a grey high pressure for what seems like an eternity☺

 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, fromey said:

The photo shows a very deep area of low pressure in the bearing sea, could this have and impact on the jet or NH pattern may be give it a kick away from what we are seeing now or will it just die away

 

fromey 

I believe storms of that magnitude have more than a local impact it can cause the jet stream to buckle across Pacific/North America side allowing cold Arctic air to flood south here for the UK no real impact but these storms brings up 'warm' air aloft in the atmosphere does it not? at a high latitude where it is usually frigid and I guess this is beneficial in aiding disruption to the bitterly cold stratosphere - the more knowledgeable will have more to say..?

[bobbydog]

North Korean model predicting a Sudden Stratospheric Warming-

[kev238]

I faced some criticism for saying cold this side of new year is highly unlikely. Of course there could be a frost or a brief north westerly shot of air but the undeniable theme is mild, sometimes wet and windy . 

From Wednesday to Sunday things look truly exceptionally mild 

[NorthernRab]

^ Every model output for 24th Dec onwards is highly unlikely given that it's more than 240 hours away. It's unbelievably brave (foolish even) to call the weather 300 hours in advance with certainty or even strong confidence, be it for cold, mild or something in between.

Edited December 13, 2015 by NorthernRab

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, NorthernRab said:

^ Every model output for 24th Dec onwards is highly unlikely given that it's more than 240 hours away. It's unbelievably brave (foolish even) to call the weather 300 hours in advance with certainty or even strong confidence, be it for cold, mild or something in between.

I disagree Rab. Given the current repeating pattern we're in, it is easy to forecast ten days ahead.

There are no such things as surprise snow spells  (nationwide) anymore. 

[aitchbomb]

We got people in here looking for recognition and plaudits punting for a wet mildly and windy Christmas. What odds they expecting for a Forest Green Rovers v Man City game?

[Ali1977]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

I disagree Rab. Given the current repeating pattern we're in, it is easy to forecast ten days ahead.

There are no such things as surprise snow spells  (nationwide) anymore. 

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

I disagree Rab. Given the current repeating pattern we're in, it is easy to forecast ten days ahead.

There are no such things as surprise snow spells  (nationwide) anymore. 

I agree, I even think in 5 days time we'll still be seeing similar FI charts as we're seeing now....This PV is V strong and we are not seeing any signs of anything capable of breaking it down. Without and SSW this year maybe another one to forget for coldies, get some SSW early Jan and the potential quickly changes.