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Model output discussion - 1st December onwards


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
5 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

For the first time this winter we may have something to focus on. But stress that the net impacts in the immediate term may not be felt over NW Europe.

Forecast pattern 16th - 17th looks ripe for addition of westerly inertia both across Asia and North America. That's probably before more westerly additions as the mjo drives into the western Pacific around the 24th. Net impact will be increasing amplification of the flow as the Asian jet is extended, retracted and then extended again. That puts the period 27th December onwards as of interest hemispherically. Could just be the trigger for the AO to become more neutral / negative.

Thank you GP.Food for thought at the turn of the year.That has been my train of thought for a while without considering your vastly superior knowledge.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

As a matter of interest the EC32 control did forecast a rapid descent of the AO from quite high values to negative post Dec. 27th.

Back to basics with tonight's anomalies. Both the ecm and GEFS 6-10 are on the same page with a trough mid Atlantic, ridging to the S/SE of the UK, low N. Russia with a trough into eastern Europe. This portends some more wet and unsettled weather mainly in the north but the south could experience some fine interludes with temps perhaps a little above average in the SWS flow.

The ext period is more problematic with the GEFS going very zonal but the ecm T360 has the trough over the UK having lost the eastern European trough so becoming quite unsettled for all. I'm rather inclined to go with the ecm at this stage as it has tended to be more consistent.

Charts weatherbell and http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

 

ecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.png

gfs-ens_z500a5d_nhem_2.png

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

This Euro high seems to have a forcefield. Of course its just responding to the NH pattern and isn't some awful entity that's set up shop for what seems like the last 10 years! However I'm sure I speak for many when I say I'm sick of the sight of it!

In terms of tonights ECM the jet getting that far south with a raging PV to the north doesn't have a good track record. You generally need some forcing like high pressure ridging into wards the pole or high pressure diverting the jet near Svalbard.

I've noticed this over many years with raging PV blob and longer range outputs, with time the jet gets adjusted north so just a cautionary note.

Of course I'd love to see the Euro slug flattened but I'd like to see this within the more reliable timeframe before daring to believe it might be given its marching orders.

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
21 minutes ago, knocker said:

As a matter of interest the EC32 control did forecast a rapid descent of the AO from quite high values to negative post Dec. 27th

 

Not the last run knocks?  

new run due out shortly. Really not expecting anything other than possibilities for some lee northerlys . December looks very unlikely to deliver anything proper wintry IMO. Maybe the north of Scotland but then proper wintry up there is a 10 foot snowdrift! 

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Posted
  • Location: High Wycombe
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Cold.
  • Location: High Wycombe

Watching to see what happens with this HP over the North Sea Area at t.108.  So far the shortwave low doesn't phase with the LP further west while the LP that stalls over the UK starts to fill.

 

Hmm at t.150 Scandi HP starts to build quite high compared with the 12Z..

Edited by Gavin Hannah
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Posted
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
  • Location: Surrey and SW France.
20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Not the last run knocks?  

new run due out shortly. Really not expecting anything other than possibilities for some lee northerlys . December looks very unlikely to deliver anything proper wintry IMO. Maybe the north of Scotland but then proper wintry up there is a 10 foot snowdrift! 

12Z ensemble means a good bit colder than the 00Z suite - cold zonality on the Christmas day menu and a good punt for snow somewhere on the day!

ec-ens_millikort_mslpmean_t850mean_t850s     Reading EPSgram -  epsgram_at_reading!epsgram.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Just like the ECM ridiculously mild air pumping northwards on the 18z, if we can't have cold then we may as well have the possibility of raising the CET even further... Great chart for a blast of summer heat.... :blink2: 

gfs16.thumb.png.04c191baa0738ef25a09cc1cgfs15.thumb.png.1b61eb4b6c7599daa46f96c3

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
46 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Not the last run knocks?  

new run due out shortly. Really not expecting anything other than possibilities for some lee northerlys . December looks very unlikely to deliver anything proper wintry IMO. Maybe the north of Scotland but then proper wintry up there is a 10 foot snowdrift! 

Yes the last run ba unless I'm misreading it. I'll be surprised if further observation is not pretty near the mark.

 

meps_ao_2015120700.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

GFS and ECM singing off the same song sheet at day 9, just need the GFS to open those Arctic flood gates now!!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes the last run ba unless I'm misreading it.

 

meps_ao_2015120700.png

 

 

I'd rather the mean go negative and the control be a +ve outlier rather than this way around in any case, Ian Fegursson still says both models rock solid behind mild until 1st week of Jan so suggest the MO (at such a range) would rather use the full suite than the control.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

 

I'd rather the mean go negative and the control be a +ve outlier rather than this way around in any case, Ian Fegursson still says both models rock solid behind mild until 1st week of Jan so suggest the MO (at such a range) would rather use the full suite than the control.

Quite agree. I was merely making an observation not a point.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
5 minutes ago, Gavin Hannah said:

Just having a punt here but the GFS could be lining up for something interesting....

Not on the 18z it wont.

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Posted
  • Location: London and Czech Republic
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: London and Czech Republic

The tide must turn eventually, this chaos cannot continue forever...no harm in having a punt. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Another dreadful 18z run - the odd Pm shot but that's about it. Interesting to note of the last month when the PV isn't in full swing we then have lows fairly frequently moving northwards and deepening from quite low latitudes (as per earlier in November) and introducing even milder conditions. Shocking...

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
3 hours ago, Daniel* said:

High latitude block across the pole looks loaded with potential to me the initiation to a stressed PV?  

I really fail to see why some are so downbeat..

image.thumb.png.62bdbde7172548bb447b67ac

Because this sort of thing is more than likely a false dawn if you know to follow the background signals etc.

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Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

With all this talk of mild weather and potentially a mild Christmas it's made me wonder how this weekends weather was being modelled 14 days ago? After all, that's how many days it is til the big day itself. For instance between tonight and Sunday morning I can see some snow forecast , daytime temps of 3/4 degrees and night time temps of -5 to -10.... Was any of this forecast to be likely from 2 weeks ago?

so , with all that said , I give you the following charts .....c'mon snow...LETSBEHAVINYA:cold:image.thumb.jpg.8fec661b1644f9c8aa3583f2image.thumb.jpg.0def688cb7193a544fdff1b9

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Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl

Cmon a punt on what?

You've got to be consistent in letting the charts pick a trend over time rather than showing a good run,the only time it does.Arrrrrrgh,background signals are against cold,MO are against sustainable cold and most of the most knowledgeable are so why after one mongooseing run do we have people saying this could be the change ect,without backing it up.

Time out for me until people stop talking super dupere,and I'm a coldie.

Edited by joggs
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

The background signals currently may look unfavourable I'm not disputing that but as the more knowledgable posters are mentioning silently summat is in the air. I think it is ignorant of folk to dismiss this 'background' signal. Perhaps the reason for emerging signs of a trending -ve NAO into late December.

Quite a decent warming at T30hpa to my untrained eye I ponder whether it will be a glancing blow I'm lost on this matter however I sense the models as of yet do not have a grip on what's going on above in atmosphere and I think something is simmering and so large swings may come. This ain't no punt you interpret what the models show not what you want them to show you. So be that mild or cold I find it perfectly acceptable and appropriate for this thread. As long with supportive charts you cannot go wrong, can you?

Even if you're selective. Caution is always advised there ain't no certainties in this business the models lead you up the garden path not the other way around! 

 

image.thumb.png.0346d8ccf7a61ac08caba21dw

 

 

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
5 hours ago, joggs said:

Cmon a punt on what?

You've got to be consistent in letting the charts pick a trend over time.

Firstly, can I say I've followed this forum avidly for 7 long winters and love the excitement at this time of year, festive cheer and merriment and all that, and I'm guessing the forum does quite well on subscriptions on winter lurkers. (Oct-Apr in my eyes)

For this reason I think we should be a bit less grinch like and expect that when the big day comes within t384 then of course peoples excitement can get the better of them, but if the operationals selected by supercomputers show us there is the possibility, surely it is worthy and allowed to mention. 

Its not as if people are over ramping as far as I've seen of recent and feet remain on the ground but I think in the lead up to the big day surely we can allow a bit of harmless fun in here, and of course the super ramps have a dedicated party thread of it's own.

Oh and yeah I've had a punt at 5/1 for my area and always do in September to add a bit more radar excitement on the big day and know from the past 5 years, 2 wins , 3 losses of which 2 only minutes or days out, so yeah it is worth a punt if only for the annual fun of it.

Good luck fellow punters and hello to all new and returning winter lurkers. Oh and JUST for a bit of fun & excitement, I quite like this chart that the gfs super computer picked out as the most probable chart for the 25th

Screenshot_2015-12-11-02-39-01.png

Edited by geordiekev
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Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands

For anyone dreaming of a seasonal Xmas look away now.

18z kept us in with a chanceimage.thumb.jpg.728084969a51885a64cb645e

 

00z takes it awayimage.thumb.jpg.f311e2bf6a373a42138bc6ec

 

From a White Christmas to a tropical Christmas. :wallbash:

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Posted
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
  • Location: Chisinau, Moldova.
3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

For anyone dreaming of a seasonal Xmas look away now.

18z kept us in with a chanceimage.thumb.jpg.728084969a51885a64cb645e

 

00z takes it awayimage.thumb.jpg.f311e2bf6a373a42138bc6ec

 

From a White Christmas to a tropical Christmas. :wallbash:

That's quite a big change. It will be interesting to see if the 06z backs it as well. 

Apart from the upcoming weekend, which is looking more seasonal and may indeed lead to snow even at modest levels in the north, it is hard to see where any chance of cold comes after that. Indeed, 0z is showing temps close to the teens for some days on the run up to Christmas.

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

I'm not a great believer in model rainfall forecasts but for what it's worth the latest from the gfs up to Tuesday. Hopefully the areas in the north that have had more than sufficient it wont be too bad. Not much of significance for the rest of the run except to note temps above average out to day ten, sometimes ridiculously so.

Charts weatherbell

 

gfs_tprecip_uk2_18.png

gfs_t2m_a_f_uk2_26.png

Edited by knocker
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