Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[nick sussex]

Oh no more shortwave drama!

 

This is now akin to Princess Leia uttering those immortal words.

Help me obi wan kenobi you're my only hope!

The models look like they will definitely phase the UK low with the upstream troughing but both the UKMO and GFS just about manage to cut a shortwave east into the UK. This is now the last hope to get some energy under high pressure near Scandi. Even then theres still a lot of energy running over the high, and this shortwave must separate cleanly from the upstream troughing.

 

[knocker]

3 hours ago, Thunderbolt_ said:

I do wish people in this model thread would be much less biased than they are (yes I did just say that, despite the fact that people constantly accuse me of being biased). It's kind of annoys me how people on both sides of the coin will search in deep FI for charts that show either extremely mild or cold charts. Those sorts of posts belong more in the winter ramps and moans thread. This thread should be for a more uniform and objective look at the models, not ramping the hell out of anything that takes your preferences.

So can we try to that, thanks. SR

I would just like to add that I posted that GEFS temp anomaly chart, not because I was ramping warm as you so eloquently put it, but because it epitomised the gfs run which was rather on the warm side. The 12z run is not that much different. As much as I would like to post a cold plunge it's not really ethical to make one up.

Edited December 10, 2015 by knocker

[cornish snow]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

I would just like to add that I posted that GEFS temp anomaly chart, not because I was ramping warm as you so eloquently put it, but because it epitomised the the gfs run which was rather on the warm side. The 12z run is not that much different. As much as I would like to post a cold plunge it's not really ethical to make one up.

I'll keep you to that Knocker. Look foreword to your" cold plunge" posts when one arrives. You won't go all AWOL on us,will you?

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, cornish snow said:

I'll keep you to that Knocker. Look foreword to your" cold plunge" posts when one arrives. You won't go all AWOL on us,will you?

Of course not. Although I'm not keen on cold weather, which isn't exactly a crime,  I'm pretty impartial when it comes to reporting on what the models are saying. One can't just ignore the fact that we've had a few weeks of above average temps and quite possible two or three more. I realise that's galling many. (not everyone) but one just has to take the rough with the smooth. It aint the end of the world. So taking that into account

 

Edited December 10, 2015 by knocker

[IDO]

Not much of interest in the models at the moment, all going as expected, pretty flat and zonal, with rain and temps above average as a whole. The D16 GFS doesn't promise any change before January, though a nice NH Polar profile.

The GFS strat at the far reaches of FI is cheeky and may be worth watching assuming it is not a flash in the pan:

       

Lots of uncertainty up to D10 re detail on the GEFS but pretty bog standard Atlantic driven for all but a couple of members. Then through to D16 more spread but the main cluster is more of the same: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

Edited December 10, 2015 by IDO

[Snipper]

2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Who'd want Christmas dinner in those sort of temperatures anyway?  Seriously, for someone in my position whose interpretation skills aren't up to much, I presume that's showing +4-5C to the average temperature, therefore around 12-13C?

 

I wouldn't mind. As a family we celebrate what we call Australian Christmas. Started with us being given a turkey, when we already had one. Decided to have the turkey in July. Australian Christmas.  Includes presents that could only be given if they had come from a charity shop and cost no more than £3.00. 

Been briliant  when the day is hot and sunny. 

Funny  how the children, little mercenary so and so's were quite happy with something that cost 50p. 

Ok nothing  to with models but probably those who are desparate for snow up to their necks and get uptight about this sort of comment are having their usual therapy session at the moment. 

Snipper 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Of course not. Although I'm not keen on cold weather, which isn't exactly a crime,  I'm pretty impartial when it comes to reporting on what the models are saying. One can't just ignore the fact that we've had a few weeks of above average temps and quite possible two or three more. I realise that's galling many. (not everyone) but one just has to take the rough with the smooth. It aint the end of the world. So taking that into account

 

Thats really incredible virtually the whole of Europe is mild/very mild. I would imagine Spain is still in the high teens early 20's looking at that.All down to that slug dragging up southerly winds from Africa.

[Polar Maritime]

No more remarks please on bias/preferences/wind-up's/other.. Lets move on to what this thread is all about, As long as it's model related, backed up by charts and friendly there's no problem.

Thanks, PM.

Edited December 10, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Cheese Rice]

Pretty strong snow signal on the EURO4

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/12/10/basis12/ukuk/prty/15121212_2_1012.gif 

 

[Costa Del Fal]

28 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Pretty strong snow signal on the EURO4

 

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/euro4/2015/12/10/basis12/ukuk/prty/15121212_2_1012.gif 

 

Hate to 'rain' on your parade but worth noting Ian F had mentioned the Euro4 has problems in over doing the snow signal generally.

[Cheese Rice]

Just now, Costa Del Fal said:

Hate to 'rain' on your parade but worth noting Ian F had mentioned the Euro4 has problems in over doing the snow signal generally.

Met Office warning looks in line with the EURO 4 

........rain to turn to snow and accumulate - mostly likely, but not exclusively, on high ground..... with 5 to 10 cm potentially accumulating above around 200 m.

[Ali1977]

Those more knowledgable, a picture of the strat on day 8, then day 16 which had moved to the East and shrunk the blues....is this likely to change anything going forward - I understand there is no particular warming showing in these images!!

[Ali1977]

ECM day 10 looks like it could be very interesting a day on from that....large scale Arctic flow heading in!!

[OldMetMan]

Hello everyone. I thought it about time I chimed in for the first time this winter. Having gone on and on about a cold spell that never happened last winter, I shall be more cautious in my comments this time around!

I have found this autumn and winter's warmth quite remarkable, and cannot recall anything quite like it in my lengthy weather memory. I've been following model output quite closely these last few weeks, as the relentless Atlantic domination continued, but something caught my eye a couple of days ago when the GFS, out of nowhere, decided to treat us to building pressure from Greenland SE, halting the Atlantic systems completely, and streaming very cold air southwards. This development was gone in subsequent runs but there are still hints of it even now:

There has been signs of a new trend with model output dithering rather over developments from this weekend onwards. I can't shake the feeling that the GFS had picked up an early trend. 

There isn't much else to support such a change at the moment. The PV is strong, remarkably low temps of -85C at 30MB, way below normal. It seems unlikely that it could go still lower and there has been much speculation on the possibility of a SSW this month. So maybe January will see something very different.

As I said, I kept saying that last winter so don't hold your breath! But after SO much warmth and SO much rain, the pendulum will have to swing the other way - eventually!

Edited December 10, 2015 by OldMetMan

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM day 10 looks like it could be very interesting a day on from that....large scale Arctic flow heading in!!

Indeed Ali. ECM looking to move the whole tropospheric PV to our North.

It would be a  Christmas miracle if we could squeeze a white Christmas out of this awful pattern

Very December 2004 looking. 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z T+240 chart is loaded with wintry potential going forward as Arctic air is poised to dive SE across the uk, hope this is the outcome in the run up to christmas.

[Daniel*]

High latitude block across the pole looks loaded with potential to me the initiation to a stressed PV?  

I really fail to see why some are so downbeat..

[knocker]

20 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Well I certainly do not disappear if cold signals disappear...I wait for more...painful as it maybe December could be dreadfully mild for coldies....Xmas day under 15 degrees....it does look like it will be post Xmas before we could see some better sustained cold opportunities...id love things to change for Xmas day but not looking great tonight...However things can change quickly with uk weather.....Scandinavia high for new year

 

I don't know whether it was meant to but that chart isn't indicating a Scandinavian high.

Edited December 10, 2015 by knocker

[winterof79]

Model output discussion

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=714&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

That's a Scandi in New Year and the PV is dissected with x polar flow.Merry ........

Edited December 10, 2015 by winterof79

[Polar Maritime]

As stressed by the warnings in place there are again some very high rainfall amounts to come over the weekend. Not good news at all.

Edited December 10, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Singularity]

 

Well, that's another one of those runs that take the vortex toward Siberia/Scandinavia - and which have a habit of not verifying well due to complications in the Atlantic.

Really though, it's the stratospheric developments showing up for between around 8 and 16 days that are raising my eyebrows more. There's some genuine potential to take down the raging vortex by not long into 2016 - but the usual issues with the GFS model in particular tending to be too simplistic and (as a result) too fast with developments have to be taken into account. That leaves me with any time between the end of Dec and mid-Jan as a realistic window for the vortex to really lose its grip.

Come that time it'll be a lottery as to where the cold goes, until then 'often wet and wild' appears to the be favoured theme, temperatures less certain though - probably very mild for a time during the middle part of the coming week (though maybe as late as Friday) across the southern half of the UK at least, but then what? Anything from balmy to a notable chill. looks possible due to uncertainties with respect to where the main trough sets up.

To be honest I can't help but wonder what ever happened to strong areas of high pressure spending lengthy periods of time over the UK? 

[Mair Snaw]

7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

Well, that's another one of those runs that take the vortex toward Siberia/Scandinavia - and which have a habit of not verifying well due to complications in the Atlantic.

Really though, it's the stratospheric developments showing up for between around 8 and 16 days that are raising my eyebrows more. There's some genuine potential to take down the raging vortex by not long into 2016 - but the usual issues with the GFS model in particular tending to be too simplistic and (as a result) too fast with developments have to be taken into account. That leaves me with any time between the end of Dec and mid-Jan as a realistic window for the vortex to really lose its grip.

Come that time it'll be a lottery as to where the cold goes, until then 'often wet and wild' appears to the be favoured theme, temperatures less certain though - probably very mild for a time during the middle part of the coming week (though maybe as late as Friday) across the southern half of the UK at least, but then what? Anything from balmy to a notable chill. looks possible due to uncertainties with respect to where the main trough sets up.

To be honest I can't help but wonder what ever happened to strong areas of high pressure spending lengthy periods of time over the UK? 

Last one i remember was after Boxing day last year... it lasted 6 or 7 days not lengthy but thats the last one i can remember in a long time...

[Cheshire Freeze]

54 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Model output discussion

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=714&mode=0&carte=1&run=10

That's a Scandi in New Year and the PV is dissected with x polar flow.Merry ........

The 9 monther also goes blocking crazy in January which is certainly a departure from the +AO set up it has been showing up until now. Something perhaps brewing but I suppose a few of us have been banging that drum for a while. I must say I am disappointed how December is panning out- not as swift a change as I thought may happen at the end of November but certainly no reason to be downbeat. Given the mildness we've had it'll be all the more sweeter when that NE'ly sets in eventually.....and what better month for that to happen in than January 

Awaiting the December update of the GLOSEA for Jan-Mar as this will be very telling but it's entirely possible that this winter sees a switch flicked in the not too distant future.

Edited December 10, 2015 by CreweCold

[Ali1977]

I will be keeping an eye on the METO long range over the next few days, although the signals for cold late December disappeared from their models , I feel early Jan things may change - and as  starting to show up now and again , this may stem from an initial shift in PV to Siberia. Not sure this will happen as early as the ECM has modelled it this evening though!!! 

[Glacier Point]

For the first time this winter we may have something to focus on. But stress that the net impacts in the immediate term may not be felt over NW Europe.

Forecast pattern 16th - 17th looks ripe for addition of westerly inertia both across Asia and North America. That's probably before more westerly additions as the mjo drives into the western Pacific around the 24th. Net impact will be increasing amplification of the flow as the Asian jet is extended, retracted and then extended again. That puts the period 27th December onwards as of interest hemispherically. Could just be the trigger for the AO to become more neutral / negative.