Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Ali1977]

Another tweet from Ian F this morning - not what a coldie  wants to hear unfortunately, or more importantly Cumbrians!!! More of the same late Dec and Early Jan. Let's hope this turns out wrong!!

Edited December 9, 2015 by Ali1977

[radiohead]

Quite concerning.

 

 

[Gavin Hannah]

Ok I think the 3 of the last 4 GFS outputs have shown a pattern change of sorts the closer we get to the big day. I think the 18Z was still going for the mild south westerly solution whereas yesterdays 06Z to this mornings 00Z have show possibly something much more seasonal and wintry ahead. Each has taken a slightly different track to get there and the outcome is different in terms of wintry weather but would it be fair to say there is a pattern change coming? The result of which is still to be decided, or do we need more runs similar to the 06, 12 and this mornings 00z?

[Liam J]

20 minutes ago, Gavin Hannah said:

Ok I think the 3 of the last 4 GFS outputs have shown a pattern change of sorts the closer we get to the big day. I think the 18Z was still going for the mild south westerly solution whereas yesterdays 06Z to this mornings 00Z have show possibly something much more seasonal and wintry ahead. Each has taken a slightly different track to get there and the outcome is different in terms of wintry weather but would it be fair to say there is a pattern change coming? The result of which is still to be decided, or do we need more runs similar to the 06, 12 and this mornings 00z?

I think we need to see other model output showing a pattern change first to back the GFS up rather than viewing the GFS OP in isolation? Been all over the place in the last few days with no run to run consistency for any one outcome. 

Edited December 9, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[coldcomfort]

19 hours ago, johnholmes said:

• 1 hour ago, radiohead said:

  Quite concerning.

  
  

   

   

   

Very concerning imo, looks like the train just wants to keep on coming.

Edited December 9, 2015 by coldcomfort

[Nick F]

Yesterday I mentioned the difference between 00z EC and GFS re: this weekend, this morning EC has fallen in line with GFS by bringing north a warm front that becomes slow-moving on Saturday across England/Wales and produces some persistent and heavy rain, though exact position may change. Then more heavy and persistent rain moving up from the southwest on Sunday - particularly across western areas, as deepening low moves NE toward Ireland, So concerning wrt rainfall amounts for the NW, today sees rain potentially for much of the day over Cumbria, then more this weekend.

Longer-term, it appears the slow digging trough over the Mid-Atlantic could force a ridge downstream across SW Europe, this despite the strong southerly tracking jet that crosses the Azores, which unfortuntately for us is deflected NE by the ridge over Spain towards the UK and keeps us bathed in mild air. How difficult is it to get a flat southerly tracking jet into SW Europe? Very it seems!

As a result, no big change towards sustained colder weather as we head towards Xmas on the morning runs. The 00Z EPS mean and control back up this idea too.

Edited December 9, 2015 by Nick F

[Summer Sun]

This mornings ECM ens is still going for some settled days next week as the jet stream moves north for a time sending the wettest weather to the far north and west of Scotland remaining mild or very mild

[A.J]

2 minutes ago, MPG said:

Fergie on twitter - mild from now into January. No change really to mets forecast. Personally if there is no SSW then winter will be mild with the obvious colder interludes to the north.

that's all well and good, but I'm struggling to see how this is relevant to this thread. This is the model output discussion thread, there is a separate thread for weather in the media, whether or not it's newspaper, tv, or social media.........thanks

[Frosty.]

This would make a pleasant change wouldn't it guys, especially for the flood affected areas in the northwest / north...high pressure building in next week on the Gfs 6z!

[IDO]

Stunning GFS 06z run, probably won't happen but this could lead to the warmest December in history!

Models showing the core PV to our NE so very little chance of any Scandi Blocking for the foreseeable:

D10:      

The CFS suggesting that the slackening of the flow as the core lower heights settle to the NE will see a resurgance of the Azores high feeding into a Euro high:

     

The GFS ensembles on side for a milder T850 flow for the next 16 days compared to 30 years averages.

All in line with long range forecasts that there is a low chance of any blocking setting up till at least mid-Jan. Christmas will be the time for us to see if the strat will break what looks a long term pattern; mild alternating with wet and windy, and possibly a PM/AM flow. These trough/ridge combos may be a recurring theme and although the upcoming transient meridional flow looks like this time it will bring mild instead of cold, that could change and the next one, like 2 weeks ago may be a colder variety?

[Newberryone]

The only respite from flooding for the foreseeable future, judging by some of the latest output, will be as a result of transient ridging and dare I say not much more. FI models have been offering up many different solutions as of late, many hinting at perhaps the possibility of sustained ridging but as we've seen time and time again, this eventually becomes downgraded. As is often the case with this type of weather pattern, parts of the south and southeast of the UK will be influenced more by any amplification from the south, whereas in broad terms  northwestern areas seem destined for more of the same.

[Nouska]

53 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

that's all well and good, but I'm struggling to see how this is relevant to this thread. This is the model output discussion thread, there is a separate thread for weather in the media, whether or not it's newspaper, tv, or social media.........thanks

A view from another *expert,  on another forum.......I trust he knows when the atmosphere is looking chaotic!!

Quote

The atmosphere seems to be in a very chaotic state at the moment with a whole range of options shown on the ECM and MOGREPS ensembles for Christmas week., zonal westerly, Northerly outbreak, anticyclone even some easterlies. Slight favourite is a Euro high

http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twocommunity/default.aspx?g=posts&m=740864#post740864

*  http://www.manchester.ac.uk/research/choularton/

[jvenge]

2 hours ago, Gavin Hannah said:

Ok I think the 3 of the last 4 GFS outputs have shown a pattern change of sorts the closer we get to the big day. I think the 18Z was still going for the mild south westerly solution whereas yesterdays 06Z to this mornings 00Z have show possibly something much more seasonal and wintry ahead. Each has taken a slightly different track to get there and the outcome is different in terms of wintry weather but would it be fair to say there is a pattern change coming? The result of which is still to be decided, or do we need more runs similar to the 06, 12 and this mornings 00z?

To be honest, other than one run yesterday, there wasn't anything showering wintery yesterday and certainly not a trend.

Also, in regards to what IanF did or didn't say, it is no wonder these people don't post here often as people seem incapable of actually reading what they say. He actually said that the probability of any prolonged cold for the remainder of December to Early Jan was low. This doesn't mean there won't be days where it is colder. He then goes on to say the models are agreeing on "mild and unsettled often".

Actually model related if people bothered to quote him directly.

Edited December 9, 2015 by jvenge
typo

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Leading to this I'm on face of it I'd be happy with 'overall' development were it to verify like that and it looks quite seasonal....we get the ridge and trough situation and then winds from N, to NE to E.  However, there is a big big BUT.  It happens quickly and block moves east...not what I envisaged.  It turns mild quickly, not what I envisaged.  Other models are heading towards Atlantic mild..not what I envisage.

Now the horrible BUT.  This chart looks on the face of it, promising for coldies.  However, the way it moves on to collapse into mild mush it reminds me horribly of Dec 1997 during the last big El Nino.  Remember this...early promise...

 

 

to this

 

And we all know how that winter happened.  Food for thought indeed

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited December 9, 2015 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[coldcomfort]

44 minutes ago, IDO said:

Stunning GFS 06z run, probably won't happen but this could lead to the warmest December in history!

Models showing the core PV to our NE so very little chance of any Scandi Blocking for the foreseeable:

D10:      

The CFS suggesting that the slackening of the flow as the core lower heights settle to the NE will see a resurgance of the Azores high feeding into a Euro high:

     

The GFS ensembles on side for a milder T850 flow for the next 16 days compared to 30 years averages.

All in line with long range forecasts that there is a low chance of any blocking setting up till at least mid-Jan. Christmas will be the time for us to see if the strat will break what looks a long term pattern; mild alternating with wet and windy, and possibly a PM/AM flow. These trough/ridge combos may be a recurring theme and although the upcoming transient meridional flow looks like this time it will bring mild instead of cold, that could change and the next one, like 2 weeks ago may be a colder variety?

 

[coldcomfort]

Indeed, truly remarkable. 850 temps 12c above average north of the UK on 19th and a solid 5-10c above average over us. Very unlikely to verify as you say, but the way things are going you wouldn't rule out something close to it, with the vast majority of Central and Northern Europe also joining in the warmthfest...can you just imagine the interest if that chart was for the 19th of July! 

 

 

 

[cheshire snow]

Whilst some look for cold in FI,its easy to forget whats under our

Noses,Saturday and Sunday is looking significantly colder,Midlands 

North,with PPN turning to snow especially on high ground,but not

Exclusively,may be some wintry weather to modest levels,and with

Temperatures of only 5c or slightly lower depending on location

Its going to feel alot colder than recently 

C.S

[Cloud 10]

Huge temperature contrast across the UK for this coming Saturday from the GFS 06z with balmy double figures in the South and an ice day for parts of Scotland.

 

 

Could be quite a bit of snow for North Pennine areas,although sadly it looks like the rain will be making the headlines again.

[johnholmes]

trying to reply to Cloud 10 but a post I replied to hours ago keeps cropping up!

Anyway GFS has been pretty consistent since the 12Z run on Monday for the 00 and 12z runs since and the 06Z also this morning for the pattern to expect on Saturday.

The UK Met Fax chart also looks pretty similar.

 

[Eskimo]

Models are painting a pretty sobering picture of the amount of rainfall. 100mm of rain for Hull? I know in previous experience Hull doesn't do too well with those amounts.

[Summer Sun]

52 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Huge temperature contrast across the UK for this coming Saturday from the GFS 06z with balmy double figures in the South and an ice day for parts of Scotland.

 

 

Could be quite a bit of snow for North Pennine areas,although sadly it looks like the rain will be making the headlines again.

The northern boundary between the colder and milder air is a bit further north when compare to yesterday mornings run

Yesterday

 

Today

 

The rain a good bit further north compared to the beebs thoughts last night not good for the flood hit areas

Edited December 9, 2015 by Summer Sun

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

26 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Whilst some look for cold in FI,its easy to forget whats under our

Noses,Saturday and Sunday is looking significantly colder,Midlands 

North,with PPN turning to snow especially on high ground,but not

Exclusively,may be some wintry weather to modest levels,and with

Temperatures of only 5c or slightly lower depending on location

Its going to feel alot colder than recently 

C.S

I was looking at that.  As the warm front heads up from the South, would there not be the chance of some wintry weather on the Northern edge later on Saturday into Sunday morning?

[phil nw.]

 

After the topsy turvy GFS Op runs over the last couple of days it looks like we are settling back into more of the same but with more transient Atlantic ridging.

Unfortunately it means more changeable Atlantic weather with only brief colder shots behind the wave depressions.Those Euro +ve heights along with the Atlantic trough continue to be the features driving our weather.

A look at the Bern(Switzerland)pressure ens.graph is often a clue to the persistence of Euro hts.

It doesn't stop us getting those brief north westerlies with pm air but until we see those Euro hts to the south disappear we can't get deep cold south across the UK from the north.

In spite of the ups and downs that have been showing in recent GFS Op.runs the ens graphs have been pretty steady in the temperature outlook .Compare the output on 5/12/15 with today's 2mt temp graph for Warks.

They just confirm pretty normal  temperatures going forward,some slightly cooler days and a few milder ones.

As others have said the one main concern is the likelehood of more rain where we don't want it as the jet continues to waver around our shores.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 9, 2015 by phil nw.
Adding correct images

[nick sussex]

Very poor ECM and UKMO outputs today in terms of colder possibilities. The big issue is the phasing of the low to the sw with the upstream trough.

Theres no mid solution here so if the low phases this acts to pull the upstream troughing ne, if you don't have the phasing then you can develop a ridge near Scandi.

Whether this would hold you'd think currently no but at this point I'd happily go for the no phasing because at least you're in the game.

Its frustrating because the upstream trough does dig quite far south and this is normally a trigger to build high pressure ahead of it which would ridge towards Scandi , unfortunately it all goes pearshaped with the phasing of the low.

So in a nutshell tonight its down to that, looking at the ECM ensembles there is a clustering of solutions that develop much colder dew points and temps and these come in tow with a wind direction swing to the east/ne so they likely develop high pressure near Scandi.

[Gavin Hannah]

At t.96 on the 12Z and it looks like the next 3 - 4 days will deff feel more seasonal. the nth hemisphere is looking a right mess at the momemt.

By the time we get to t.120, the ridging to the north has a much different profile compared with 06Z. What will it lead to..?

Edited December 9, 2015 by Gavin Hannah