Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[AdamStorm7891]

7 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Local forecast increased winds for Saturday but only 50 tops.

I wouldn't be surprised if that upgrades in the next 36 hours or so, the pressure gradient for Saturday looks very tight, having said that I imagine somewhere like Sheffield can more often then not be quite sheltered from the worst of strong winds.

[Liam J]

UKMET 12z sea level pressure & 10m wind speed charts showing winds over the Atlantic west of Ireland Friday afternoon of 100km/h+. 

 

Edited December 2, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Guest]

Here's the latest FAX for 00z on Saturday morning, some very tight isobars on there:

 

I use this link for the FAX charts as the charts are time stamped with the time of issue which is quite handy:

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

Edited December 2, 2015 by CatchMyDrift

[Mokidugway]

21 minutes ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if that upgrades in the next 36 hours or so, the pressure gradient for Saturday looks very tight, having said that I imagine somewhere like Sheffield can more often then not be quite sheltered from the worst of strong winds.

Katabatic winds flowing downhill from the Pennines can increase local windspeeds ,I believe Sheffield in the past has sustained considerable damage from these events ..

[Love Snow]

Certainly looks a nasty setup when will the Storm be named?

[The PIT]

Local forecast upped the gusts to 55 mph so it maybe interesting.

[The PIT]

11 hours ago, AdamStorm7891 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if that upgrades in the next 36 hours or so, the pressure gradient for Saturday looks very tight, having said that I imagine somewhere like Sheffield can more often then not be quite sheltered from the worst of strong winds.

Errr no which is why it got flattened in the great gale

[Guest]

The GFS still isn't backing off on the windspeeds for my location (mean wind of 49mph, gusts to 75mph are the current forecast for 9pm tomorrow), it's stuck with them for days now. I've lived down here for almost four years and I've never seen wind speeds as strong as this forecast for the eastern Borders. I'm supposed to be picking my boys up for their fortnightly weekend with me tomorrow, I'm not sure if travelling from here to the far side of Glasgow and back between 4pm and 10pm tomorrow is looking like a good idea? I'm sure my ex will be thrilled if I postpone the trip to Saturday morning. Decisions, decisions...if the forecast hasn't downgraded by several notches between now and tomorrow then I'll have to postpone the trip, no way I'm risking driving in that kind of wind with the kids in the car. If it was just me then I'd probs not be as bothered.

 

[Liam J]

Getting quite consistent runs now regarding track and where the strongest winds likely affect over the weekend. The first very windy period will begin to affect Western Ireland and NW Scotland during Friday afternoon with gale or severe gale force SW'ly winds developing bringing gusts around 60 to 70mph+, into the evening the gales sweep eastwards to affect the rest of Ireland, Scotland, N England and N & W Wales, again gusts around 60 to 70mph+ in places before easing off into the small hours of Saturday but remaining windy. 

 

Into Saturday and it remains windy, during the afternoon a secondary area of low pressure begins to move in from the SW ramping up the winds again across Ireland, Wales & Central/Northern England bringing SW'ly gales and gusts of 55 to 65mph+ with the strongest winds roughly from the Midlands northwards up to Southern Scotland.

 

During Saturday night the winds winds increase further for W/SW Ireland first before sweeping across the Irish Sea affecting NW Wales, N/NW England & S Scotland with potential gusts of 65 to 75mph for a time into Sunday morning before easing off quite quickly towards day break.

 

Also looking very wet with some large rainfall totals possible for parts of Ireland, W & SW Scotland, Wales and N England.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 3, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

A fun weekend ahead then Subs!!

[Liam J]

8 minutes ago, Pomeroysnow said:

A fun weekend ahead then Subs!!

Yep! Although I was planning on going Christmas shopping this weekend but maybe not the best idea, won't be fun walking round the shops in wind & rain! 

Edited December 3, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Liam, A very 'active' weekend coming up with the ground already saturated flooding will also be an issue on top of the gales. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Although some nasty weather to come each run keeps backing down the wind speeds which is a good thibg

[Liam J]

Slight increase in wind gust speeds for Saturday afternoon & evening on the 6z. 

 

[Liam J]

Second GFS run in a row now tracking a severe storm close to the NW of the UK, although the core of damaging winds with 90-100mph gusts is staying away from the mainland, lets hope it stays that way! 

Yep, this is an average wind speed chart, hurricane force! 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited December 3, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Evening thunder]

Well it looks like yet again any 'stormy' strength winds will be just north of here, continuing the recent remarkably consistent theme with anything notable just north of here even by one or two counties. 

Today may just about bring the strongest winds and heaviest rain for ages, even though it's nothing particularly significant (and the heaviest rain will still miss).. SSW gusts of 45mph forecast by the Met Office (vs 42mph for the weekend).

Can't even remember the last significant rain either.. a very tedious bland Autumn. The river has not responded much at all this Autumn.

[Liam J]

Met Office are updating warnings now and have extended Fridays wind warning further south and now includes Northern Ireland - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=dg&from=rss&sn=3AE75E2A-BF72-DB8D-A281-6295D70AD379_4_DG&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449187200

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

About time we are always late to the party

[Liam J]

The second updated warning valid from 17:00 Friday to 06:00 Sunday mentions the risk of storm force winds for the coasts and hills of N Wales and N England. 

Edited December 3, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Summer Sun]

Today's rain warning now covers more northern and western parts of England

Issued at: 1123 on Thu 3 Dec 2015

Valid from: 1130 on Thu 3 Dec 2015

Valid to: 2350 on Thu 3 Dec 2015

Rain is expected to be heavy at times through Thursday, falling onto saturated ground. Be aware that this may lead to localised flooding of land and properties as well as some travel disruption.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

The frontal zone affecting northern England on Wednesday will return northwards on Thursday bringing a further spell of rain, heavy at times. There is some uncertainty over the timing and extent of heavy rain, but given saturated conditions and high river levels some localised flooding is likely given rainfall totals of 30-50 mm. This warning has been extended northwards and westwards.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449100800®ionName=uk

 

[Abyss]

1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Met Office are updating warnings now and have extended Fridays wind warning further south and now includes Northern Ireland - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=dg&from=rss&sn=3AE75E2A-BF72-DB8D-A281-6295D70AD379_4_DG&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449187200

45-55mph gusts with 60mph possible locally. Nothing really

 

Although more interesting for

In the Western Isles and far northwest mainland Scotland gusts will reach around 70-80 mph. 

[Liam J]

29 minutes ago, -Bomber- said:

45-55mph gusts with 60mph possible locally. Nothing really

 

Although more interesting for

In the Western Isles and far northwest mainland Scotland gusts will reach around 70-80 mph. 

You missed some words out of the Meto text, I think the use of the word 'widely' 45-55 and locally more than 60mph then that could suggest gusts inland, but yes there's been stronger, also uncertainty still remains on the extent of the winds inland. 

Quote

Southwesterly winds will gust 45-55 mph quite widely across Scotland and Northern Ireland, locally to more than 60 mph. In the Western Isles and far northwest mainland Scotland gusts will reach around 70-80 mph. 

There is some uncertainty in the inland extent of the strongest winds so this warning will be kept under review and updated as necessary.

Saturday also sounds interesting, have to see how things develop over the the next 24hrs or so.  

Quote

Southwesterly gales are expected to affect much of northern England and parts of Wales later Friday and into Saturday with the risk of storm force winds over coasts and hills. 

 

Edited December 3, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[sunnijim]

We seem to be moving away from the HP dominated theme next week,all models have the core further South over mainland Europe.

The GEM is the pick of the bunch Vigorous low wise for next week with a series of 'secondary' lows feeding off the deep Icelandic low next week and slamming large parts of the UK,maybe one to watch? Even though the GEM is considered a 'lesser' model.

[Abyss]

29 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

You missed some words out of the Meto text, I think the use of the word 'widely' 45-55 and locally more than 60mph then that could suggest gusts inland, but yes there's been stronger, also uncertainty still remains on the extent of the winds inland. 

 

 

Yes I know but my point is 45-55mph is nothing to write home about and that is what most will experience. Nothing to batten down the hatches for

[Liam J]

4 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

We seem to be moving away from the HP dominated theme next week,all models have the core further South over mainland Europe.

The GEM is the pick of the bunch Vigorous low wise for next week with a series of 'secondary' lows feeding off the deep Icelandic low next week and slamming large parts of the UK,maybe one to watch? Even though the GEM is considered a 'lesser' model.

Yep, I saw the GEM and it did throw up some intense lows, most of the model output looks like a continuation of the unsettled theme into next bringing the risk of further wild weather at times. Did you see the GFS charts for Monday? A very intense storm tracking to the NW of the UK but the core of the strongest winds stays out west (thankfully) as it's showing gusts of 90-100mph! This weekend is looking quite stormy and very wet so some disruption is possible.