Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, Woollymummy said:

I think the past few years have shown a real need for experimental land-use changes to test the effects of upland treeplanting/scrub development on water flow in the catchments most affected so far, and maybe eg sheep farmers need to be persuaded to become coppice managers. We very nearly moved to Keynsham in 1984 and prob would have ended up in a vulnerable floodplain, but luckily my mum got a job in East Anglia so I grew up on a flood-free hill. I feel so sorry for everyone trapped in a vulnerable flood zone now, as well as the immediate risks of today's storm, the prospects of years to come of more misery must be very dismal for them.

95% of Keynsham is NOT vunerable to flooding these days because of what i outlined in my earlier post.

The only parts are the Keynsham footie and rugby fields on the flood plain and the properties right at river level like the Lockeeper pub.

Central parts of Keynsham are spared these days because of the late 60s-built flood prevention system.

The amount of rainfall in recent weeks in Yorks and Cumbria is virtually unprecedented in modern times and even the best flood defences would've been severely under strain. Dredging would've helped in *some* places (not all). 

The Environ agency has not been on the end of large cuts either. They get their money from govt and they decide how to spend.

[Methuselah]

But how? The Government (Tory, Labour, SNP) can release funds immediately after a crisis, but what can they do, today?

I was in Glenurquhart, back in the early 1990s, when the Enrick washed the entire road away, after a massive snow-melt and broke the water mains...I saw no point in blaming anyone - it was, after all, the sun (with some help from monsoon-type rain) what done it!

Aye, we need a long-term plan to combat the effects of climate change. But are we going to get such a thing while eminent 'meteorologists' are still telling us that the globe is cooling? So, despite wanting to continually scratch my head at the intransigence of many politicians, I don't think we can blame Cameron's government for what is currently transpiring. Above all, we should be getting all the help we can to those in the firing line...

[lfcdude]

The problem will only get worse in years to come thanks to this

 

Housebuilding rates higher on flood plains as UK 'stores up problems for future'

Housing growth rates in highest-risk flood areas almost twice as high as outside of flood plains

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/earth/flooding/12073672/Housebuilding-rates-higher-on-flood-plains-as-UK-stores-up-problems-for-future.html

[Woollymummy]

A local example, old farm plot near the river Windrush, up for sale this week at 4.5 million, advertised with a concept map for the development of over 20 riverside properties in a flood risk zone. Great idea. People are unfortunately sometimes naturally greedy, competitive and stupid, hence we have buildings being built on unsuitable land and people being lured into them. No matter what the weather/climate/storm tracks of the future, this perverse human behaviour will lead to trouble for someone.

 

[stevofunnelcl]

Ok, south-west has a yellow rain warning now for the next three days

Also, some talk of the winds reaching severe gale force in places

Sat image reveals a fairly deep low to the south-west approaches

Weather is staying very active, into 2016

[Liam J]

Probably looking at gales in the far SW for a time then W Scotland later this evening.

Then again briefly in the far south tomorrow morning.

 

Looking quite wet over the next few days as well.

 

This would be pretty severe if it come off, but nearly a week away so chances are it will probably change/downgrade, ECM isn't showing anything as severe. 

 

Edited January 1, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[tinybill]

think we  got to keep an  eye on this one

[vladthemert]

Happy new year everyone

woke up to frost here surprised met had no warning for here. 

[cowdog]

2 hours ago, tinybill said:

think we  got to keep an  eye on this one

Yeah wont happen as shown thankfully, as there would be very little left of Northern Ireland and Southern Scotland if that came off, but it shows there is potential this week for a catastrophic storm.

[tinybill]

2 hours ago, cowdog said:

Yeah wont happen as shown thankfully, as there would be very little left of Northern Ireland and Southern Scotland if that came off, but it shows there is potential this week for a catastrophic storm.

 now they got it even lower

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, tinybill said:

 now they got it even lower

That all looks very reminiscent of the Braer storm...So, it clearly can happen!

[tinybill]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

That all looks very reminiscent of the Braer storm...So, it clearly can happen!

could  this  be  the next  named  storm

[Mokidugway]

24 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

That all looks very reminiscent of the Braer storm...So, it clearly can happen!

Is that a depression or a singularity ????

[stubbys]

Potentially looks nasty this one, long way off though.

[ancientsolar]

I've just been checking GFS.. Can't quite believe how many lows are going to back centered over Southern UK /Midlands ... over the next week.. + 
I wouldn't take any particular forecast for granted... but didn't we have similar scenarios just 2 years ago with Storms hitting the South West causing months of flooding and the Dawlish sea Defense being shattered? 

Every storm could bring us a chance of thunder, hail... strong .. severe gale force winds,. mini tornadoes,. .. I don't know about prolonged rain, I haven't checked.. ,, but torrential downpours seem almost inevitable. My Dads kitchen got flooded Christmas Eve,. just from a torrential Downpour.. 
but the trees are still dropping leaves!!!! 

[Biggin]

21 hours ago, stevofunnelcl said:

Ok, south-west has a yellow rain warning now for the next three days

Also, some talk of the winds reaching severe gale force in places

Sat image reveals a fairly deep low to the south-west approaches

Weather is staying very active, into 2016

Yep looks to be heading straight along the channel at this time

[Liam J]

Quite a storm on the 6z which would affect N England southwards, but in FI and as we've seen quite often from the GFS so far this winter they get downgraded significantly. 

ECM for similar time frame with the strongest winds further south and around 30 to 40mph less. 

 

 

[Terminal Moraine]

Yes, much too far out to have any confidence in this coming to fruition. I always live in  hope that one day the GFS will be right on the money, even at that distance, and I'll get to experience again something like the gale of mid February 1962 before I shuffle off to the afterlife.

[The PIT]

Still shown in FI land and has moved to t192. Still expect it to disappear at some point but you never know.

[Liam J]

Yeah and it's only the GFS showing a severe storm at the moment. One day one might come off! 

[Liam J]

Storm still on the 18z for next week but a bit further south, it's consistent I'll give it that but no support from any other model for winds of that strength at this stage, and we're use to over the top GFS storms outside the reliable time frame but if it did occur it would be very nasty indeed... A lot can change in a week. 

Edited January 3, 2016 by *Sub*Zero*

[Love Snow]

43 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Storm still on the 18z for next week but a bit further south, it's consistent I'll give it that but no support from any other model for winds of that strength at this stage, and we're use to over the top GFS storms outside the reliable time frame but if it did occur it would be very nasty indeed... A lot can change in a week. 

Would this be a burns day storm re run or was that even worse? 

[Mokidugway]

That would give me a windy but sunny day ..

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Storm still on the 18z for next week but a bit further south, it's consistent I'll give it that but no support from any other model for winds of that strength at this stage, and we're use to over the top GFS storms outside the reliable time frame but if it did occur it would be very nasty indeed... A lot can change in a week. 

Ugh, that would be on a par with Oct 1987 or Jan 1990 if it came off, with the worst winds hitting the most populated part of the country. Exciting on one hand but the inevitable death and destruction would outweigh that so I'd rather it didn't happen or went much further NW and affected areas much more used to these conditions. Wouldn't be surprised if it did occur tho. Despite months of this vile Atlantic onslaught we haven't really had a noteworthy storm down south yet, only a matter of time!

Edited January 3, 2016 by stainesbloke

[Mapantz]

I think the GFS is overcooking that one. Look at those wind speeds- that would bring gusts in excess of 100mph along the South Coast.