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Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16


Liam J

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Wind gust charts from Friday evening into Saturday night from the 18z, quite concerning if it came off as there could be a near 24hr period of gales or severe gales in places with gusts of around 60-70mph+ in the N & W even 80mph in the far NW on Friday night with the strongest winds further south on Saturday affecting more of England and Wales....With the last few storms the worst of the winds only lasted around 2-3 hours and that caused disruption. 

gfs330.thumb.png.3950f48519ce46f0f0c9902gfs331.thumb.png.3f25725d3ca763782377198gfs332.thumb.png.f52b6e3794052d142ba1666gfs333.thumb.png.dc906e58946ca0a043b76bf

 

gfs334.thumb.png.e6bb19bfdcba34168bf47c1gfs335.thumb.png.91bc3d0465c59f6ef9ae62cgfs336.thumb.png.2ed8c0613baa270920837cagfs337.thumb.png.d8de813b1f6a240c96ed172

 

 

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Not sure about elsewhere but the day before Storm Clodagh arrived they were predicting max gusts here around 55mph, gusts recorded were 10-15mph higher, not saying the GFS is right as it's still a few days away yet....Could be interesting, lets see how things develop over the next few days.... :) 

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, Sussex
  • Location: Worthing, Sussex

Any idea how bad it will be in London this weekend? I'm going away for a weekend to celebrate my partners birthday so just wondered what it will be like. Thanks guys. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Local forecast having none of it again for saturday. Hopefully a more active system than the last storm for Sheffield which wasn't bad at all bar a short spell in afternoon and an active shower later on.

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
5 hours ago, steveh19 said:

Any idea how bad it will be in London this weekend? I'm going away for a weekend to celebrate my partners birthday so just wondered what it will be like. Thanks guys. 

Hi Steve, there's currently some variation run to run but at the moment but Saturday afternoon into the first part of the night is looking the windiest on latest output, gusts around 50-60mph possible with some wet weather a well. 

Some slight changes overnight but Friday evening into Saturday still looking very windy for areas to the north and north west with gusts around 70-80mph showing for parts of Ireland and Scotland and over 70mph for N England, a second swathe of strong winds into Saturday evening likely for areas further south of the Scottish border but the exact track and intensity of Saturdays low is still uncertain.

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

As already noted it's a very complicated analysis over the weekend and subsequent adjustments are going to make a huge difference. For instance at the moment the ecm has some very strong winds, touching 75kt gusts, just fringing the north of Scotland between 18z Sat and Sun 00z.

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There's some pretty strong agreement from all the models that Friday into Saturday will be very windy across large parts of the UK & Ireland:

565eb18fafcb2_2ndDecECM00z72hrs.thumb.gi565eb19207e30_2ndDecFAX00z72hrs.thumb.gi565eb19af0a1f_2ndDecGFS00z72hrs.thumb.pn

565eb1947b048_2ndDecGFS00z69hrsGusts.thu565eb19727a5d_2ndDecGFS00z72hrsGusts.thu2nd Dec WRF-NMM 0Z +70hrs Gusts.png

Still no firm details but fairly safe to say it could be a cracker.

Edited by CatchMyDrift
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16 minutes ago, Pomeroysnow said:

Out of curiosity when are we likely to see warnings or is the situation still to fluid yet for issuing?

I think the map painter might be busy this morning :)

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Posted
  • Location: Worthing, Sussex
  • Location: Worthing, Sussex
3 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Hi Steve, there's currently some variation run to run but at the moment but Saturday afternoon into the first part of the night is looking the windiest on latest output, gusts around 50-60mph possible with some wet weather a well. 

Some slight changes overnight but Friday evening into Saturday still looking very windy for areas to the north and north west with gusts around 70-80mph showing for parts of Ireland and Scotland and over 70mph for N England, a second swathe of strong winds into Saturday evening likely for areas further south of the Scottish border but the exact track and intensity of Saturdays low is still uncertain.

Many thanks. We are off to Winter Wonderland at Hyde Park Saturday evening. I don't mind the wind as long as it's dry, haha.  

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
7 minutes ago, geoffw said:

what kind of wind speeds could eastern northern ireland be having? i guess nothing notable 

Taking the charts at face value somewhere around 60-70mph in gusts Friday night and into Saturday, it depends on local topography and how exposed your location is to SW winds. 

 

gfs339.thumb.png.36ea792b44581c3f9e885a6gfs340.thumb.png.c0ef81fe6246bbefc56878b

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

Early wind warnings out for the weekend

Issued at: 1120 on Wed 2 Dec 2015

Valid from: 0015 on Sat 5 Dec 2015

Valid to: 0900 on Sun 6 Dec 2015

Southwesterly gales are expected to affect much of the country during Saturday, easing during the first part of Sunday. This may result in some branches or trees being brought down. Some travel disruption is likely, with localised problems for high-sided vehicles on prone routes. Be advised to drive with care, especially on exposed routes, and be aware of possible debris being blown around.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A depression is expected to deepen and move towards Iceland during Friday, with the associated frontal zone expected to affect the UK throughout Saturday before clearing away eastwards on Sunday morning. In the warm sector southwesterly gales are expected, with gusts to around 70 mph possible around exposed coasts and over hills. Gusts to the lee side of the mountains in Wales and northern England are also likely to reach similar strengths. There is some uncertainty in the inland extent of the strongest winds so this alert will be kept under review and updated as necessary. Be aware that some low level disruption looks likely.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449273600®ionName=uk

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Surprised Scotland has been left out! :cc_confused:

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Posted
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
  • Location: Dunoon, Argyll Scotland
2 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Surprised Scotland has been left out! :cc_confused:

Surprised as well. 06z GFS this morning showing gusts over 75 mph for parts of Scotland on Friday. I just checked the Met Office forecast maps and the max gusts are about the same.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland

I think this warning is to cover the winds on Saturday and Sunday. There will probably be a separate warning for the winds expected Friday-Saturday.

90-289UK_rda2.GIF

Edited by radiohead
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

Possibly another warning to follow for Friday afternoon/evening, as Radiohead mentioned, perhaps with the likelihood of some higher impacts? 

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset

GFS looks quite inline with the warning to me. Time will tell, as always! :)

 

 

 

Rtavn9019.gif

Rtavn9619.gif

Edited by Mapantz
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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic storms, severe gales, blowing snow and frost :)
  • Location: Carlisle, Cumbria

The warning is valid from midnight on Saturday, GFS chart for that time.

gfs343.thumb.png.e18b48b28c1307e3e26315e

 

Chart for 6 hours earlier showing the severe gales develop much sooner than the warning valid from time, according to the GFS anyway. 

gfs339.thumb.png.35404d9caaeb71d6897f7db

 

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
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Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
7 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

The warning is valid from midnight on Saturday, GFS chart for that time.

gfs343.thumb.png.e18b48b28c1307e3e26315e

 

Chart for 6 hours earlier  showing the severe gales develop much sooner than the warning valid from time, according to the GFS anyway. 

gfs339.thumb.png.35404d9caaeb71d6897f7db

 

Yeah, you're right. I missed that.

Confusing to say the least. I'm sure things will update again.. :laugh:

 

Edited by *Sub*Zero*
Adding in the rest of my quoted text.
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