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DisruptiveGust

Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

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33 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Interesting, was the run-off just too great for the drains etc to cope?

How does one defend against that sort of flooding without changing the design of pretty much every urban development that might get it, if you can't easily pinpoint prone locations by identifying floodplains etc.
Of course, any part of these towns that were flooded by the streams/rivers that flow through them are technically on floodplains.

Drains can't even cope with summer thunderstorms a lot of the time.. let alone the 80mm+ that some areas received yesterday, that subsequently ran off the hills and into surrounding streets.

Well, we have already seen areas that are prone to frequent flooding and areas with the potential to flood quite seriously. That's a start.

I guess you're right - but this type of flooding is rare.. or was. It's the worst flooding nearly everyone here has seen and the worst in the Calder Valley since the 1960s. It isn't like you're spending money to prevent annual flooding - just the really bad flooding that crops up every now and then. The flooding that destroys homes. A lot of the people affected have never flooded before - so again it isn't like there is always a precedent of flooding. Some areas of Leeds that flooded yesterday haven't flooded since the 1800s.

Anyway, my point is really this - save abandoning these places because flooding is frequent or might become more frequent as a result of climate change, some sort of defence mechanism is needed. Simple as that. We're talking about areas that have been in existence for hundreds, and thousands, of years.. not just modern developments on flood plains. People who have lived in the same area all their life, with preceding generations.. I don't know what the solution is - that isn't my job - but simply letting the flood waters destroy people's livelihoods is not an option.

London has the Thames barrier to protect it against tidal surge - I think a city the size of Leeds, and Manchester too, requires something to protect it.. considering it is the source of employment for hundreds of thousands across Yorkshire. It's a good thing the flooding occurred over Boxing Day and Sunday - I can't imagine the disruption that would have unfolded if it was a busy Monday morning.

Edited by cheese

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8 minutes ago, Evening thunder said:

Interesting, was the run-off just too great for the drains etc to cope?

How does one defend against that sort of flooding without changing the design of pretty much every urban development that might get it, if you can't easily pinpoint prone locations by identifying floodplains etc.
Of course, any part of these towns that were flooded by the streams/rivers that flow through them are technically on floodplains.

I can't speak for other effected parts but here it was a case of excessive rainfall and watercourses that respond rapidly and, certainly up here in the Pennines, the textile towns and villages tended to be built at the bottom of valleys and close to the rivers from where they obtained power and water so they were actually built on flood plains.

flooding has always occurred and in places such as Todmorden and Hebden Bridge, it happens on a quite regular basis but the last couple of days have been uncharted territory for many, both in the severity of the flooding and how widespread it was but one striking difference is how some of our largest towns and cities can easily fall victim to flooding should conditions be right.

 

 

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Bbc weather  now worried  the front going to stall over the nw on   Wednesday bring huge amounts of  rain

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1 hour ago, Evening thunder said:

Interesting, was the run-off just too great for the drains etc to cope?

How does one defend against that sort of flooding without changing the design of pretty much every urban development that might get it, if you can't easily pinpoint prone locations by identifying floodplains etc.
Of course, any part of these towns that were flooded by the streams/rivers that flow through them are technically on floodplains.

Its not an issue of Drains.

 

Its an issue of the Streams and Rivers can't cope.

 

These are rivers, streams and becks that have been here for at least a thousand years yet are experiencing record levels. I live in a farm house that has had a settlement for well over a thousand years, the earliest detailed map of the area shows the streams of the area - that map is over 600 years old. The streams in the area are now all trying to change course, and they have only really started to do this in the past 10-15 years. We are really in uncharted territory, how we solve it unfortunatly is going to cause pain as either my neighbours houses become unliveable or the country as a whole accepts to try and save the hamlets, villages, towns and cities that make up this country.

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Far west of Ireland and NW Scotland really close to seeing some extremely strong winds on Tuesday, 90mph+ gusts not far away from land but 80mph not out of the question.  

gfs75.thumb.png.56be0f4f16326a874b28f3d6gfs76.thumb.png.d15f949ae0955bcfd4e9dafcgfs77.thumb.png.be303ef0adfce1566f7de108

Into Wednesday the 18z is developing a second area of low pressure which could bring winds in excess of 70mph perhaps towards 80mph for some western locations.

gfs78.thumb.png.ec84da4283376f4a176bcda6gfs79.thumb.png.1bf2ffc5faa582ba57bf2302gfs80.thumb.png.626d73bfffe40b0aa59aee2c

And of course the renewed risk of further flooding as both of these systems would bring heavy rainfall into areas that cannot cope with any more water, things could get worse still - Quite a severe spell of weather possible midweek on latest charts.

Totals may not look too excessive on there charts but given the state of things currently any amount of rain is too much right now. 

ac17.thumb.png.c8786eff6b2f1a71db8b67761ac18.thumb.png.e88557c2529c465e507532180

 

 

 

Edited by *Sub*Zero*

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We appear to be dodging a bullet regards worst winds in Western isles 

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Quite concerning that BBC weather showed the front stalling over flood hit areas !

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20 minutes ago, Love Snow said:

Quite concerning that BBC weather showed the front stalling over flood hit areas !

Just what they don't need right now

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14 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Who said anything about "destroying the environment"? There are some communities crying out for dredging and many of them 'warned' the agencies and authorities on numerous occasions over last few years. And.....

For those communities living in picturesque areas be prepared for concrete flood defences if you REALLY want proper flood defences. Ugly looking construction that has a far better chance of diverting cascades of water away from communities.

I think we need to form a new defence system, the usual flood defences can and do work but water is channelled faster and deeper if it's blocked from spreading out, naturally the water wants to spread out as it does over farm fields, or flood plains, where it's blocked is where it affects someone else further down river. There's not much one can do to stop all floods the power of water is incredible and new ideas on how to block the rivers waters from getting into towns and cities are always welcome.

Concerning images of that huge 'dartboard' storm developing for mid week this week (or before can change time scale)

Edited by ZONE 51

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16 hours ago, cheese said:

Drains can't even cope with summer thunderstorms a lot of the time.. let alone the 80mm+ that some areas received yesterday, that subsequently ran off the hills and into surrounding streets.

Well, we have already seen areas that are prone to frequent flooding and areas with the potential to flood quite seriously. That's a start.

I guess you're right - but this type of flooding is rare.. or was. It's the worst flooding nearly everyone here has seen and the worst in the Calder Valley since the 1960s. It isn't like you're spending money to prevent annual flooding - just the really bad flooding that crops up every now and then. The flooding that destroys homes. A lot of the people affected have never flooded before - so again it isn't like there is always a precedent of flooding. Some areas of Leeds that flooded yesterday haven't flooded since the 1800s.

Anyway, my point is really this - save abandoning these places because flooding is frequent or might become more frequent as a result of climate change, some sort of defence mechanism is needed. Simple as that. We're talking about areas that have been in existence for hundreds, and thousands, of years.. not just modern developments on flood plains. People who have lived in the same area all their life, with preceding generations.. I don't know what the solution is - that isn't my job - but simply letting the flood waters destroy people's livelihoods is not an option.

London has the Thames barrier to protect it against tidal surge - I think a city the size of Leeds, and Manchester too, requires something to protect it.. considering it is the source of employment for hundreds of thousands across Yorkshire. It's a good thing the flooding occurred over Boxing Day and Sunday - I can't imagine the disruption that would have unfolded if it was a busy Monday morning.

Yes that's true, although I'd have thought defending against this type of flooding requires the biggest, most expensive defences, so you effectively have to defend against annual flooding to defend against the 100 year events (and of course far more places will be flooded by the major/rare events than annual occurrences, so the expense and scale of defences required is orders of magnitude higher). Sometimes people may only realise that a 1 in 100 year event (rather than a less severe event) is underway when they see on radar that the intense thunderstorm or squall line/embedded convection in a front has hit, or see rain gauge totals, so apart from larger rivers which respond slower, temporary defences may not be appropriate (or big enough), meaning permanent ones would be required.
I'm thinking the predictability of flood locations may be lower too, not all places that flood in such an event will have been predicted to, whereas experience means your normal flood spots often are.

But yes I agree, there needs to be some kind of best solution reached.. although I also don't completely know what that is (though it may often be unique to each city), as I don't know the most about urban planning and development... just a bit about rivers, flooding and physical geography.
 

14 hours ago, cowdog said:

Its not an issue of Drains.

 

Its an issue of the Streams and Rivers can't cope.

 

These are rivers, streams and becks that have been here for at least a thousand years yet are experiencing record levels. I live in a farm house that has had a settlement for well over a thousand years, the earliest detailed map of the area shows the streams of the area - that map is over 600 years old. The streams in the area are now all trying to change course, and they have only really started to do this in the past 10-15 years. We are really in uncharted territory, how we solve it unfortunatly is going to cause pain as either my neighbours houses become unliveable or the country as a whole accepts to try and save the hamlets, villages, towns and cities that make up this country.

I was replying to Cheese who said some areas weren't on floodplains which implied the source wasn't from streams or rivers, so asked if it was the shear volume of rain/run-off from hills that drains and left infrastructure unable to cope in such places.  I know that some rivers reached their highest levels recorded.

I suspect that they have been there for much longer than that.. although gauging station records often go back about 50 years or less, only a minority of records are longer. Of course, local records can be useful in some places before that. Many rivers have always shifted course, though an increase could relate to more flood events recently, and/or a change in human activities around/in the streams.

1 hour ago, Wivenswold said:

I'd like to add this excellent article to the debate on flooding. As you'll read flood defences are an answer to the effect. It's the cause that needs addressing. 

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/feb/17/farmers-uk-flood-maize-soil-protection

 

 

That article makes some very good points that land use is a major contributing factor. Some don't realise how much cattle, machinery (and  to an extent even rain hitting soil left bare in winter) can compact the soil and reduce infiltration while increasing erosion and silt loss that ends up in our rivers..
With things like tree planting, I've seen people say 'but trees are bare in winter so they won't suck up the water' It's not that.. it's the roots opening the soil up, a less compacted soil surface and leaf mulch that allows infiltration and absorbs water. I remember reading a study finding that this increases infiltration rates by around 70 times. Even a area/row of trees along a common surface run-off pathway could significantly help reduce the amount reaching the river as overland flow.

A week or so ago a road near here (the A3052) recently had very muddy brown water flowing down it covering the whole road in places, like localised flooding despite only 8mm of rain falling. The reason: a maize field left bare above the road (and possibly blocked culverts from leaves and the silt).

Edited by Evening thunder

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GFS keeps toying around the 4th for a low to zip through much more south than normal

Lots of change to come though it was even further south than this on the 00z

 

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

Netweather GFS ImageNetweather GFS Image

 

 

 

 

wind.jpg

Edited by Surrey

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Little sign of a let up then?  I'd imagine with temperatures potentially nearer low single digits there's a higher chance sleet and snow will add to the mix for some. Dare I say even a chance of blizzards considering a much colder flow is being introduced into these deep lows. Looks like possibly another biggie around the 7th taking a more southerly trajectory, definitely a busy period coming with greater chances of a sting in the tail regarding snowfall for some? 

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lm curious about the criteria for weather warnings, been looking at the MetO forecast and its predicting winds around 53mph in my area, lm just finding it curious as to why there havent been expanded weather warnings given there have been times where wind warnings were given for that sort of wind speed  speed.

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2 hours ago, timeless said:

lm curious about the criteria for weather warnings, been looking at the MetO forecast and its predicting winds around 53mph in my area, lm just finding it curious as to why there havent been expanded weather warnings given there have been times where wind warnings were given for that sort of wind speed  speed.

Really 40-50mph wind gusts wouldn't do much harm other than knock a few wheelie bins over and make the sea choppy. Once you get above 55-60mph is when things begin to get a bit more "interesting" 60mph could bring down a few branches and blow a few signs away 70mph brings down trees and can loosen a few house tiles and make the house shake. 80mph is dangerous, this can do some serious damage 90mph can cause devastation in a built up area and places not use to experienceing it. Rember though these are gusts and not sustained winds. For instances a sustained 50mph wind would be a bit dodgy 

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On 27 December 2015 at 2:36 PM, Bristle boy said:

Who said anything about "destroying the environment"? There are some communities crying out for dredging and many of them 'warned' the agencies and authorities on numerous occasions over last few years. And.....

For those communities living in picturesque areas be prepared for concrete flood defences if you REALLY want proper flood defences. Ugly looking construction that has a far better chance of diverting cascades of water away from communities.

 

Hard defences v soft defences: sounds like my geography lessons in 1987. Surely you can understand a hard concrete barrier will not absorb water and energy, merely deflect them? This article I just read describes moronic complaints about sea oats on dune systems blocking the view from condominiums, where deluded people presumably think concrete walls will save them.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/come-hell-or-high-water-the-disaster-scenario-that-is-south-florida/article25552300/

What we need is infrastructure design to include wetland that is valued not because it is an empty potential building plot or grouse-shooting estate, but because it is a dune, shingle beach, sphagnum bog, water meadow, forest, fen or marsh. Without more of those old natural structures in our soggy country, there will be more disasters.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Woollymummy said:

 

Hard defences v soft defences: sounds like my geography lessons in 1987. Surely you can understand a hard concrete barrier will not absorb water and energy, merely deflect them? This article I just read describes moronic complaints about sea oats on dune systems blocking the view from condominiums, where deluded people presumably think concrete walls will save them.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/come-hell-or-high-water-the-disaster-scenario-that-is-south-florida/article25552300/

What we need is infrastructure design to include wetland that is valued not because it is an empty potential building plot or grouse-shooting estate, but because it is a dune, shingle beach, sphagnum bog, water meadow, forest, fen or marsh. Without more of those old natural structures in our soggy country, there will be more disasters.

 

 

Agree about the 'soft' defences.

Re the concrete structures I'm not just talking about a few walls here and there but a whole system that diverts floodwaters.

Not the same re topograpghy, granted......but......

in the 60s a few villages and satellite towns outside Bristol (North Somerset) were severely flooded for the umpteenth time in as many decades. In the market town of Keynsham they built a specific concrete flood diversion structure, which to this day, saves it from flooding. Only the floodplains on the outskirts flood these days.

I know the areas in Cumbria and N Yorks are not quite the same re topography but sometimes communities have to put up with structures that will help them from flooding, even if they are eyesores on the beautiful landscapes.

The Environ agency has to take account of its overall strategy as well. Reports indicate that over the last 10 years or so it has been too entrenched in the Climate change agenda and ignoring 'Act today' schemes for various parts of the country - the dredging issue is one such talking point.

 

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4 hours ago, Surrey said:

Really 40-50mph wind gusts wouldn't do much harm other than knock a few wheelie bins over and make the sea choppy. Once you get above 55-60mph is when things begin to get a bit more "interesting" 60mph could bring down a few branches and blow a few signs away 70mph brings down trees and can loosen a few house tiles and make the house shake. 80mph is dangerous, this can do some serious damage 90mph can cause devastation in a built up area and places not use to experienceing it. Rember though these are gusts and not sustained winds. For instances a sustained 50mph wind would be a bit dodgy 

are you sure? we had a power cut about 5hours ago (not long come back on), there seems to be several trees down in the area according to the local radio station lol..

 

weird thing is according to the MetO the last 24hr readouts dont show anything over 44mph winds in my vicinity :/

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1 minute ago, timeless said:

are you sure? we had a power cut about 5hours ago (not long come back on), there seems to be several trees down in the area according to the local radio station lol..

 

weird thing is according to the MetO the last 24hr readouts dont show anything over 44mph winds in my vicinity :/

Quite agree.

Wave 105 reporting trees down across our region. A woman from Poole has suffered head injuries after a tree fell on her car earlier.

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I think the past few years have shown a real need for experimental land-use changes to test the effects of upland treeplanting/scrub development on water flow in the catchments most affected so far, and maybe eg sheep farmers need to be persuaded to become coppice managers. We very nearly moved to Keynsham in 1984 and prob would have ended up in a vulnerable floodplain, but luckily my mum got a job in East Anglia so I grew up on a flood-free hill. I feel so sorry for everyone trapped in a vulnerable flood zone now, as well as the immediate risks of today's storm, the prospects of years to come of more misery must be very dismal for them.

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sadly l can only see things getting worse... l hate to bring politics into the discussion but with the Tories currently in power l doubt we will see much money for flood defences etc going outside london..

after all not more than a few weeks ago they were warned about issues but ignored them, not to mention the cuts made to schemes to protect ppl against flooding, also l heard a few hours ago that there was another Cobra meeting regarding the catastrophic flooding and the treasury (namely George Osborne) seems to have been blocking access to funding to help those who have been hit it seems, tho it seems they are set to rake in millions from the last storm and this one in VAT from what lve read.

 

source: http://linkis.com/www.mirror.co.uk/new/T7hfi

Edited by timeless

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while l do agree, the problem with that is natural disasters have a toll, and lets face it, there could have been more done to help prevent the worst.. a few power cuts l can understand but for some whats happened over the past week or so including today will be still ongoing for months.

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