Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[heccygabber]

[The PIT]

A quiet week coming up for us once we've got tomorrow out of the way. Plenty of action elsewhere and only needs a slight change in wind direction to bring us back into play. It does look like any strong winds next week will be from the south.

[Liam J]

The XC Weather forecast maps for 15:00 Tuesday looking pretty extreme, just off the SW tip of Ireland mean speed of 83mph and gusts to 107mph using the 12z GFS data.... Much time to pass before then so will highly likely look different again on the next run. 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Just now, heccygabber said:

I'm just as excited as you, love big storms!!

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Just now, *Sub*Zero* said:

Just seen the Met Office warning, perhaps gusts in excess of 80mph, must be a strong signal from their models to issue a warning 4/5 days away. They do mention the uncertainty and things could change, if likelihood increases it's only a step down from amber... But the immediate concern will be rainfall amounts over the next 24hrs or so. 

12z GFS wind gusts for Tuesday, significant disruption if those wind speeds come off.

Followed quickly by another significant storm on Wednesday.  

 

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts reaching 100mph or even more in exposed areas and even through the central belt as well. Exciting weather ahead!!! Also, what's the chance of a sting jet forming with this low because it does deepen rapidly to me but I'm not sure?

[Liam J]

1 minute ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts reaching 100mph or even more in exposed areas and even through the central belt as well. Exciting weather ahead!!! Also, what's the chance of a sting jet forming with this low because it does deepen rapidly to me but I'm not sure?

Still too far out to be looking into detail as we still have model divergence so no solid agreement as yet, although the Met Office must have some reasonable confidence levels to issue a warning at this stage. Always a risk of a sting jet occurring when rapid cyclogenesis initiates. Lots to keep an eye on in the coming days. 

[Sainsbo]

 

Black areas showing wind gusts of over 150kmh^-1 (93mph), with the entire purple area ahowing gust speeds of over 80mph. Let's home we see some downgrades as we're starting to get closer to the reliable timeframe

Don't be fooled by the fact the centre of the low is only at 975hPa - There's still a 50hPa pressure gradient from NW Ireland to SE England!

 

Edited December 25, 2015 by Sainsbo

[heccygabber]

I certainly hope it doesn't downgrade, I want a real storm.

[mistyqueen]

I'd prefer something a bit less fierce personally,but hey, we're in the hands of the weather Gods. It won't be the first time we've had these kind of conditions up here and it probably won't be the last, but I'all hope for a downgrade anyway! 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

Indeed Misty as a person in a prone spot for Gales I agree with you!!!

[knocker]

The double whammy still not looking good for next week with gusts of 80kts in the west

Charts weatherbell

[Liam J]

Heavy steady rain here and it's quite extensive this morning, worrying day coming up for many in the already flood affected areas... Where the rain stalls some large totals can be expected. 

 

Still on course for a very windy period next week although not quite as strong on the 00z as yesterday evenings output, still quit concerning and these charts if right would cause some disruption with widespread gales and severe gales for some.

GFS 00z wind gusts.

Monday. 

Tuesday.

Wednesday.

 

Edited December 26, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Liam J]

Met Office have issued a RED rain warning for Lancashire - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=nw&from=rss&sn=C517B605-CA85-A903-4665-DD0957DEF6F0_2_NW&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=7&lon=-3.35&lat=53.77&fcTime=1451088000

Edited December 26, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[knocker]

Interactive maps to check flood warnings & river levels …https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/map  & http://www.gaugemap.co.uk

[Love Snow]

22 hours ago, The PIT said:

1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Met Office have issued a RED rain warning for Lancashire - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?regionName=nw&from=rss&sn=C517B605-CA85-A903-4665-DD0957DEF6F0_2_NW&tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=7&lon=-3.35&lat=53.77&fcTime=1451088000

Quite worry for Leeds also River Levels already running extremely high and we had quite a lot of rain fall yesterday River Aire Leeds water level: 1.86m at 08:00. Big chance of flooding! #Flood #Leeds #Aire #Rising

[Love Snow]

River Aire highest I remember for 8 years. This is 4 miles from #Leeds; there are normally 10 steps to the river; https://t.co/XPWpwBcHpT

[The PIT]

Yes slight downgrade and I need to keep a eye on the wind direction as a change to more south westerly flow puts us in the firing line again.

[Frosty hollows]

My heart goes out to those in the areas affected by flooding. We were affected by the persistent rain two years ago and it really is no joke when human waste, etc starts coming into your home. Is there any hint of a let up soon for these areas?

 

[cowdog]

Red Weather Warning has been extended to cover West West Yorkshire and a bit of North Yorkshire - Includes Bradford, Halifax, Keighley, etc.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1451088000&regionName=nw&fcTime=1451088000&map=Warnings&zoom=8&lon=-1.70&lat=53.93&regionName=yh

Note this runs till 10pm tonight - i.e. 12 hours from now.

 

Its already been bad here already, we do not need another 12 hours of this.

 

 

[matty40s]

Hebden Bridge now flooding from Rochdale canal. Towpath being washed away, a breach here could be a disaster.

[cowdog]

1 minute ago, matty40s said:

Hebden Bridge now flooding from Rochdale canal. Towpath being washed away, a breach here could be a disaster.

Hebden town center is already a meter deep under water anyway -

https://www.instagram.com/p/_wCHwCwdqJ/?taken-by=cakebikecake

And its only going to get worse. This is easily the worst its ever been in this part of the world.

[cowdog]

Severe Flood Warnings now in place for a lot of the Calder including at Hebden Bridge and Todmorden.

Also -

 

 

Leeds is flooding already and is past the record levels, expect them to issue a severe warning there soon and probably upstream on the Aire.

[Mokidugway]

Pub destroyed by flooding according to Manchester evening news 

[Frosty hollows]

Heartbreaking stuff

http://www.itv.com/news/2015-12-26/residents-evacuated-as-floods-pose-danger-to-life/

 

[SnOwFeSt]

The radar looks truly frightening. At least another couple of hours of very heavy rain right where we don't need it, over the dales/Pennines.

Flood levels are approaching record highs in Leeds already and are nowhere near their peak...