Atlantic Storms Winter 2015/16

[Liam J]

Yup, sure they will , as I mentioned perhaps to cater for higher impacts, who knows! 

[radiohead]

5 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

The warning is valid from midnight on Saturday, GFS chart for that time.

 

Chart for 6 hours earlier showing the severe gales develop much sooner than the warning valid from time, according to the GFS anyway. 

 

My guess is that there will be another warning and there will be some degree of overlapping regarding times, since the winds on Saturday/Sunday are from a secondary depression and not just a continuation of the same event on Friday/Saturday. At least thats what the GFS shows.

[Liam J]

Just now, radiohead said:

My guess is that there will be another warning and there will be some degree of overlapping regarding times, since the winds on Saturday/Sunday are from a secondary depression and not just a continuation of the same event on Friday/Saturday. At least thats what the GFS shows.

Yeah, the warnings are getting updated as we type, rain warnings have just been added in for some areas. 

[ForeverPomeroysnow]

No warnings for NI either? As you say they are still probably updating 

[Summer Sun]

New wind warning issued for Friday

Issued at: 1304 on Wed 2 Dec 2015

Valid from: 1200 on Fri 4 Dec 2015

Valid to: 2345 on Fri 4 Dec 2015

Southwesterly gales or severe gales are expected to affect much of Scotland during the second half of Friday. The strongest winds will affect northern and western parts at first then reach the Central Belt and south later in the day. Please be aware of difficult driving conditions with the risk of travel disruption on roads and to ferries. Winds may be strong enough to bring down branches or even uproot some trees due to saturated ground. A period of heavy rain will also affect much of Scotland, especially western areas.

Chief Forecaster's assessment

A depression is expected to deepen and move towards Iceland during Friday, with the associated frontal zone expected to affect the UK throughout Friday and Saturday. Southwesterly winds with gusts of around 75 mph are expected near exposed coasts and over hills. Winds will be less strong across more sheltered inland areas but occasional gusts of over 60mph are possible. There is some uncertainty in the inland extent of the strongest winds so this alert will be kept under review and updated as necessary. Be aware that some low level disruption looks likely

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449187200®ionName=uk

There are currently no warnings for Northern Ireland

[Zenarcher]

1 hour ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Possibly another warning to follow for Friday afternoon/evening, as Radiohead mentioned, perhaps with the likelihood of some higher impacts? 

Warnings out now for Friday they must have read this topic 

[Pat Butcher]

Hi folks,

Has anyone got any explanation/Wiki link for this bizarre split going on?  It's not something I've come across before..

[weather09]

Still far out so much uncertainty exists, but that secondary low for late Sat/early Sun would look more of a concern for the southern half of the UK as models show further tightening of isobars ahead of attendant cold front, with potentially severe gale force gusts inland (65mph+).   So perhaps a relatively prolonged period of strong winds across the UK for the weekend, in all. 

[Evening thunder]

Some model runs have more southern areas affected by something interesting this time too (e.g. the GFS 06z below)

But I guess the Met Office models may be showing it not so strong down here, as the above is stronger than the winds over the weekend in the SW for which there were yellow warnings covering us.

Edit: posted at the same times as weather09!

Edited December 2, 2015 by Evening thunder

[Abyss]

1 hour ago, Pomeroysnow said:

No warnings for NI either? As you say they are still probably updating 

Still nothing 

[Liam J]

45 minutes ago, Zenarcher said:

Warnings out now for Friday they must have read this topic 

Lol...Yep, and with slightly higher potential wind gusts than Saturday/Sundays warning, still a few days away yet so some uncertainty remains, there could be some further changes with the detail, especially for Saturdays depression re track & intensity. 

[Liam J]

6z ARPEGE wind gusts for Friday evening onwards, 70mph+ gusts in places maybe 80mph for a few locations.

The ARPEGE only goes out to 72hrs on the 6z so will have to wait for this evening to see what it makes of Saturdays system, 72hr chart for 7am Saturday. 

 

 

[Liam J]

12z GFS wind gust charts, winds not quite as strong as the previous run, but as mentioned previously expect some variations as we are looking 2-3 days away.

 

Friday into Saturday.

Saturday evening/night and the strongest of the winds are a  little further north fringing into S Scotland on this run instead of N England being the northern limit, very windy for many. 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Cheshire Freeze]

Wow just looked at the 12z GFS and far from the winds being the main cause for concern, flooding would be the most serious issue. Hours and hours of continuous heavy rain over upland areas of Scotland, Wales and NW England. Some serious issues if this comes off I would imagine....

 

[Liam J]

The rain warning is much more limited (but no less of a concern) than the wind warning but when you combine the heavy rain, resulting saturated ground with trees and then add in severe gales, it could be quite nasty... So flooding is a possibility along with minor structural damage & possible uprooting of trees, not a great weekend on the cards.    

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Scary running through this..

 

http://www.myweather2.com/streamline/player.aspx?Streamline=2

[Flash Elvis]

That is very scary and looks like me trying to get something delivered to NI by sea for 9am Monday will be blow away

[Guest]

48 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Wow just looked at the 12z GFS and far from the winds being the main cause for concern, flooding would be the most serious issue. Hours and hours of continuous heavy rain over upland areas of Scotland, Wales and NW England. Some serious issues if this comes off I would imagine....

 

If you squint carefully some of the rainfall totals are almost 200mm in 96 hours:

 

 

 

[AdamStorm7891]

Well I'm supposed to be heading into London on Saturday evening when the strongest winds from the secondary system are due for my girlfriend's birthday and most models are in agreement for gusts in the 45-55mph range so could get pretty wild with the possibility of disruption to public transport due to flying debris and fallen trees/branches etc.. especially if there are any upgrades as we get nearer the time, I really hope not as I wasn't banking on this and I don't want the weather to spoil the party!

[The PIT]

Well the storm still there looking interesting and maybe deliver something more notable here than last Sunday. Then of course it may not and there's still time for it to change although it's been fairly well consistently modeled.

[Mountain Snow]

37 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

If you squint carefully some of the rainfall totals are almost 200mm in 96 hours:

 

 

 

Some seriously large rainfall totals over the Lakeland Fells there. The ground is already saturated, with lakes and becks running high, could be some nasty flooding. One to keep an eye on.

[AdamStorm7891]

Just saw the 6:30 BBC forecast, the pressure chart for Saturday looked disturbing to say the least, but before that tomorrow's wind and rain looks fairly nasty in itself with gales/severe gales possible in the south-west with a lot of rainfall, flooding and disruption could be possible. The rain and at least some of that wind looks to spread east across Southern England throughout tomorrow night!

Edited December 2, 2015 by AdamStorm7891

[Liam J]

Looking at the NetWx-SR the wind doesn't look too worrying for tomorrow compared to the weekend, strongest in the SW & Wales.

Very wet in places too with totals mounting up, and with further heavy rain predicted over the coming days it isn't good news. 

Edited December 2, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Liam J]

NetWx Hi-res predicted rainfall totals for the next few days, grim.

 

[The PIT]

Local forecast increased winds for Saturday but only 50 tops.