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DisruptiveGust

Atlantic Storm #3 - Clodagh

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Met Éireann have named tomorrows depression Storm Clodagh, the third named storm of the season so far  - http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2015/11/28/met-eireann-names-storm-clodagh/

 

 

If you've been following the Atlantic storms thread today you'll know where the strongest winds will likely impact, over Northern Ireland during the morning then sweeping across the Irish Sea into Southern Scotland and North - North West England bringing gusts around 60-70mph or more, and possibly even inland for a time in the north. 

 

Also heavy snow is forecast north of the border for parts of Scotland, mainly over higher ground but possible to lower levels as well. 

 

12z ECM pressure chart for midday Sunday showing Clodagh tracking across Southern Scotland with a tight pressure gradient on her southern flank, windy for much of England & Wales but the strongest winds affecting areas mentioned above bringing the risk of disruption.  

 

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Certainly will be gusts strong enough to do some minor damage to areas that don't see these types of gusts as commonly as the usual coastal regions.

 

15112914_2812.gif

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So we have two met offices naming storms confusing time to scrap the idea.

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Timeline of Sunday using EWN WRFDA

 

1am to 6am

 

38 to 46 mph mean wind speeds for the coasts of Ireland, Wales and England. Inland wind speeds for the most exposed parts reach 18 to 30 mph.

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Gusts around the coasts and exposed parts ranging from 60 to 70 mph. Inland gusts around 35 to 45 mph.

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6am to 12pm

 

Inland mean wind speeds range from 28 to 40 mph and for the coasts and exposed parts 45 to 50 mph.

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Inland gusts of 45 to 65 mph will be widespread across much of Ireland, Wales and England with the coasts and exposed parts likely to see 70 to 75 mph and at this point the West coast of Ireland could see gusts around 80 mph.

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12pm to 6pm

 

Inland wind speeds still range from 28 to 40 mph and around 50 mph for exposed locations.

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Ireland will still see gusts of 50 to 60 mph until 3pm when winds there will start to drop down. As for England and Wales the afternoon will see the highest wind speeds. With gusts ranging from 40 to 55 mph for inland areas and 60 to 70 mph for exposed parts and the coasts. Northern Wales could see gusts of 80 mph around 1pm along with the Northern Eastern English coasts seeing 75 mph around 4pm.

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6pm to 11pm

 

The wind quickly drops down during the evening with 40 mph mean speeds still likely for a while in exposed parts.

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Inland gusts range from 30 to 45 mph with the Eastern coasts still likely to see gusts over 50 mph.

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A few charts from the Hirlam 18z, another model which is showing Clodagh to be deeper and tracking further north compared to the lower resolution GFS.

 

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ECM - post-9615-0-43931000-1448748713_thumb.gi GFSpost-9615-0-24067200-1448748789_thumb.gi 

 

 

 

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Stay safe folks whatever happens. I'm off to bed!

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UKMO FAX for 12z tomorrow, deeper than the GFS and a bit further north so the strong winds would extend into Southern Scotland. 

 

post-9615-0-66257200-1448749975_thumb.gi

 

 

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ECM giving the worst of the gusts for NW England and SW Scotland, 70mph quite widely, 80mph+ in exposed spots. Although 50mph+ gusts are possible for most areas. Gonna be a bit blowy...

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The M6 buoy, which is here, has had a gust of 56mph at the 1am update.

 

Constant winds of 39mph in Mace Head in Co. Galway, roughly mid west coast.

 

Met Eireann going to 80mph gusts for Ireland tomorrow morning.

 

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At 12z this morning's ecm has the strongest band of winds across NW Ireland, southern Scotland and northern England. Gusts between 65-75 kts so quite bad for a brief period plus there could be fairly significant snowfall in places, more so on the mountains of course, but not exclusively.

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No real change overnight and Clodagh is still set to bring a period of stormy weather later this morning and into this afternoon for parts of N & NW Ireland this morning then the W/SW'ly gales or severe gales sweeping across the Irish Sea into S/SW Scotland, the Isle of Man, N/NW England & parts of N/NW Wales with gusts to around 70mph or more and possibly 80mph or higher in some exposed locations as Nick & Knocker mention above according to the ECM. Gusts further south around 50mph possibly 60mph for exposed locations. 

 

 

It's already quite windy in many locations but the real strength should start to pick up over the next few hours for Ireland.

 

 

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Through late morning towards midday the very windy conditions will start affecting the coasts of SW Scotland and NW England then extending inland across S Scotland and N England with gusts around 70mph or more. 

 

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Winds will begin to ease late afternoon as Clodagh moves into the North Sea but remaining quite windy into the early evening. 

 

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Also Clodgah bringing some heavy rain which will turn to snow across parts of Scotland with some significant accumulations predicted over high ground.

 

post-9615-0-09784400-1448781266_thumb.pnpost-9615-0-58976200-1448781273_thumb.pn

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Moderate rain here with winds starting to pick up gusting 40mph.

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Plenty of rain here earlier, dry at the moment but the wind is really starting to make its presence felt.

Expecting a stormy afternoon so no point trying to put back the fence panels blown at last week until this storm has passed through.

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Its not too bad at all here at the moment turned wet and windy for a time early this morning but nothing unusual at all we've got some glimpses of sunshine now

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44 mph yesterday evening 40mph this morning not arrived as yet Peak time this afternoon.

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Updated wind warning

 

Issued at: 1004 on Sun 29 Nov 2015

Valid from: 1010 on Sun 29 Nov 2015

Valid to: 1800 on Sun 29 Nov 2015

 

Sunday will see very windy weather sweep across Northern Ireland, Wales, England and parts of southern Scotland, with severe gales expected to affect some areas. Inland gusts of 50 to 60 mph will occur in some areas, but possibly reaching around 65 mph for parts of inland Northern England and the far south of Scotland, where isolated medium impacts are possible. Gusts around western coasts could locally exceed 75 mph, this most likely in coastal areas of north Wales, northwest England and Dumfries and Galloway. There is a lower probability of similar gusts briefly affecting coastal northeast England as the low clears away east, early this afternoon. This is an update to the warning originally issued on Friday, mentioning increased gust strengths and expected impacts across parts of Northern England and the far south of Scotland. Please be aware of the potential for disruption due to the gales and severe gales, particularly for the areas highlighted in the words above.

 

Chief Forecaster's assessment

 

Another low pressure system is entering its deepening phase as it runs quickly eastwards across southern Scotland today, producing a further swathe of very strong winds on its southern flank; the low, at time of writing, is currently a little deeper than earlier expectations. There is likely to be a core of stronger winds immediately south of the low pressure track, which, still seems most likely to affect areas around the northern part of the Irish Sea and might produce a few larger impacts there than elsewhere. Strongest winds will reach most areas by the end of the morning, before gradually easing from the west during the afternoon and evening.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1448755200&regionName=uk

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Could make for things a little more interesting then.. 

At time of writing, is currently a little deeper than earlier expectations.

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Not really getting going here Max gust 46mph before ten O'clock plenty of time but was expecting more gusts in the 40's right now. Local forecast has nothing above 50mph.

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Pretty windy here, now.

I see a second area of strong winds moves in tomorrow?!

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