Jump to content

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Paul

November HO-PI - final chance to vote

HO-PI - November vote  

66 members have voted

  1. 1. How do you feel the upcoming winter is going to pan out?

    • 100% confidence of a cold winter
      4
    • 90% confidence of a cold winter
      0
    • 80% confidence of a cold winter
      3
    • 70% confidence of a cold winter
      9
    • 60% confidence of a cold winter
      8
    • 50/50 cold or mild
      13
    • 60% confidence of a mild winter
      5
    • 70% confidence of a mild winter
      11
    • 80% confidence of a mild winter
      7
    • 90% confidence of a mild winter
      2
    • 100% confidence of a mild winter
      4


Recommended Posts

Here we are again, following on from our HO-PI votes in September and October, this is the final chance to vote before we collate all the numbers and see how everyone's gut feeling on this winter has changed over the last few months. 

 

Don't forget, this is just unscientific fun :D

 

This thread/voting will close at 23:59 on the 30th November. 

 

Paul

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've switched to a 60% chance of a milder winter, as you can't really ignore the signs. You can hope though!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

im sticking to my guns and have gone from 80% sure of Mild winter to 100% confidence..i think with the strong El Niño weather pattern now setting up across North America it will be mild and zonal..may end up with a colder spring though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My earlier confidence of a below average Winter has gone. I had initially thought the colder Atlantic would have had an effect on reducing the power of the jet stream and at the very least take it on a more Southerly track. Unfortunately the colder Atlantic temperatures look like having zero impact.

 

Therefore we must look to the El Nino as being the main driver and current model projections show a typical El Nino signature and the PV is building up strength and setting up at home around Greenland.

 

With El Nino Winters occasionally delivering SSW's later in the season and some forecasters going for a SSW around mid January, we may see colder weather coming into the islands around the second week of February.

 

It would virtually impossible to get an overall below average Winter based on that, therefore I have gone for a 0%.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Changed my vote from 50/50 to 80% chance of a mild winter, agree with some of the above posts re the super El Nino playing a very big part. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

80% cold. Eternal optimist.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

continuing with the 70% likely to be milder...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Upped my vote from 70% to 80% chance of a mild winter. It is just a case of if we can develop a colder pattern later and when this happens.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think I went with 70% chance for colder than average, so I've stuck with that. A few things in favour of this occurring I believe so why not?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

50/50 overall.

 

December Wet and mostly mild until end of month.

 

January Very much on cold side with a fair bit of Snow especially in North and East.

 

February Getting off to a cold start but becoming much milder and eventually a bit drier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last day to vote in the HO-PI for this year :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...