Ensemble Forecasts

[Zenarcher]

I have decided to make a weekly forecast using the GFS ensembles. Aimed at giving you a quick and clear outlook at the weather ahead.

 

Wednesday 25th November 2015

 

Summary: A cloudy start with showers coming in over from the West. Mostly cloudy with sunny spells during the afternoon with Eastern England and South Western Ireland seeing the best of the sunshine. Mostly to partly cloudy during the evening and over night.

Temperatures: Min 1°C to max 12°C. Mostly 6°C to 11°C.

Wind: A strong North Westerly breeze and reaching gale force in exposed Western coastal areas.

Rainfall: Light rain showers up to 1mm.

 

Thursday 26th November 2015

 

Summary: Mostly cloudy with showers. Some sunshine across Northern and Eastern England.

Temperatures: Min 3°C to max 13°C. Mostly 7°C to 12°C.

Wind: A strong South Westerly breeze with gales arriving later for the North of Scotland.

Rainfall: Light rain showers up to 1 or 2mm.

 

Friday 27th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy with showers or rain. Drying up across the South later. Wintry showers possible over Scotland and Northern England.

Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 12°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C.

Wind: Westerly gale force winds widespread over most of the UK and Ireland with gusts of 60 mph possible in Scotland.

Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers up to 3 or 9mm.

 

Saturday 28th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy with rain moving in from the West. A chance of wintry showers in Scotland and Northern England.

Temperatures: Min 0°C to max 12°C. Mostly 5°C to 9°C.

Wind: Westerly gale force winds widespread over most of the UK that may reach severe gale force later in the North.

Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers up to 3 or 9mm.

 

Sunday 29th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy with showers or rain in Scotland. Chance of sunny spells over Southern England.

Temperatures: Min 1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C.

Wind: Strong breeze with gales in the North.

Rainfall: Rain or showers up to 3 or 7mm.

 

Monday and Tuesday 30th & 1st November & December 2015

 

 

Summary: Staying mostly unsettled with rain.

Temperatures: Min 2°C to max 12°C. Mostly 7°C to 10°C.

Wind: Gales continuing on Monday then wind easing on Tuesday.

Rainfall: 2 or 7mm.

[Zenarcher]

Overall Summary: Staying unsettled with gales and wet weather. Strong winds arriving on Friday and Saturday. Wintry weather possible mainly for Scotland. Turning colder on Friday and over the weekend.

 

Thursday 26th November 2015

 

Summary: Mostly cloudy with some sunny spells and showers passing over Northern England and Scotland. The South, East and North East of England will see the best of the sunshine.

Temperatures: Min 3°C to max 12°C. Mostly 8°C to 11°C.

Wind: Light breeze for most of the UK and Ireland with gale force winds arriving in the North of Scotland during the evening.

Rainfall: Rain showers 2mm to 4mm.

 

Friday 27th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy with rain moving in from the West and moving across the whole country. Wintry showers are possible over Ireland, Wales, Northern England and Scotland.

Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 12°C. Mostly 7°C to 11°C.

Wind: Widespread gale force winds across all of the UK and Ireland. Gusts of 60 mph possible in Scotland.

Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 3mm to 10mm.

 

Saturday 28th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy with widespread rain. Wintry showers possible in Scotland.

Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 5°C to 8°C.

Wind: Gale force winds across all of the UK and Ireland with severe gale force in exposed parts. Gusts around 55 to 65 mph possible.

Rainfall: Rain or showers and some wintry 3mm to 10mm.

 

Sunday 29th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy but staying dry across the South. Rain and showers in the North where wintry weather is possible.

Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 5°C to 9°C.

Wind: Widespread gale force winds especially in the North.

Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 2mm to 5mm.

 

Monday 30th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy with rain that will be heavy at times. Wintry weather in Scotland possible.

Temperatures: Min 0°C to max 11°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C.

Wind: Gale force winds for most places.

Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 2mm to 6mm.

 

Tuesday & Wednesday 1st & 2nd December 2015

 

 

Summary: Turning more settled for a short time on Tuesday before turning unsettled again on Wednesday.

Temperatures: Min 1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C.

Wind: Easing on Tuesday then gales possible on Wednesday.

Rainfall: 2mm to 6mm.

[johnholmes]

hi Z

A nice idea, I like it, you have said clearly what you are basing your forecasts on so hopefully you will not get too many moaning you are cherry picking or whatever else.

thank you.

[Cloud 10]

I also think this is a good idea.

 

Its interesting to note that the 5 day ensemble means from GEFS,NAEFS and GEM all verify better than the GFS operational run.

 

The ECM 5 day ensemble mean does even better but is not on the graph below.

 

[Zenarcher]

hi Z

A nice idea, I like it, you have said clearly what you are basing your forecasts on so hopefully you will not get too many moaning you are cherry picking or whatever else.

thank you.

 

Thanks John, I thought about doing something different. I think they are a good way to build up a picture in the longer term of what the weather will bring.

 

I also think this is a good idea.

 

Its interesting to note that the 5 day ensemble means from GEFS,NAEFS and GEM all verify better than the GFS operational run.

 

The ECM 5 day ensemble mean does even better but is not on the graph below.

 

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

 

Interesting to know.

[wishfulwinter]

Absolutely brilliant for us beginners. I will be able to use both the chart and summary to assist with my learning

[Zenarcher]

Overall Summary: Staying unsettled with gales to severe gale force winds expected on Friday and over the weekend. Turning colder from Friday into the weekend where wintry weather is possible especially over Scotland. Temperatures turning slightly more milder at the start of next week.

 

Friday 27th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy with rain or showers moving in across the West and North. Some wintry weather possible over Ireland, Wales, Northern England and Scotland.

Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 12°C. Mostly 8°C to 11°C.

Wind: Widespread gale force winds across all of the UK and Ireland especially in the North where 50 to 60 mph gusts are likely.

Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 5mm to 12mm.

 

Saturday 28th November 2015

 

Summary: Sunny start for Eastern England but turning cloudy during the afternoon like everywhere else with widespread rain. Wintry showers possible in Scotland and Northern England.

Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 5°C to 7°C.

Wind: Widespread gale force winds across all of the UK and Ireland arriving in the afternoon. Gusts of 55 to 65 mph likely over Ireland and Scotland.

Rainfall: Rain or showers and some wintry 4mm to 10mm.

 

Sunday 29th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy and overcast for most places with heavy rain over Ireland and Scotland 

Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 12°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C.

Wind: Widespread gale force winds especially in the North with the possibility of severe gales affecting Ireland, Scotland and Northern England.

Rainfall: Rain or showers 3mm to 7mm.

 

Monday 30th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy with heavy rain across Ireland, Wales and England. Scotland see's some sunshine mostly in the North with some wintry showers.

Temperatures: Min 0°C to max 12°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C.

Wind: Gales still widespread to start with then easing down later.

Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 3mm to 7mm.

 

Tuesday 1st December 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy and overcast with rain over most of the UK and Ireland.

Temperatures: Min 0°C to max 13°C. Mostly 7°C to 12°C.

Wind: Gale force winds return mainly for the South.

Rainfall: 3mm to 7mm.

 

Wednesday & Thursday 2nd & 3rd December 2015

 

 

Summary: Staying mostly unsettled and wet.

Temperatures: Min 1°C to max 12°C. Mostly 6°C to 10°C.

Wind: Gale force winds on Wednesday then easing down for Thursday with gales only in the far North.

Rainfall: 3mm to 7mm.

Edited November 26, 2015 by Zenarcher

[Zenarcher]

Overall Summary: Staying cold and unsettled over the weekend where strong winds are forecast on Sunday. Turning milder next week but staying unsettled with more wet and windy weather.

 

 

Saturday 28th November 2015

 

Summary: Sunny start for Eastern England but turning cloudy during the afternoon like everywhere else with widespread rain especially for the West and Northern parts. Wintry showers for Scotland.

Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 5°C to 8°C.

Wind: Widespread gale force winds across all of the UK and Ireland for most of the day. Gusts of 50 to 60 mph likely anywhere especially around the coastal areas.

Rainfall: Rain or showers and some wintry 3mm to 7mm.

 

Sunday 29th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy and overcast for most places with heavy rain over much of the UK and Ireland with wintry weather likely in Scotland.

Temperatures: Min -2°C to max 13°C. Mostly 5°C to 11°C.

Wind: Widespread gale force winds for all of the UK and Ireland with severe gales looking possible over Ireland, Wales and England with 55 to 65 mph gusts.

Rainfall: Rain or showers some wintry 2mm to 5mm.

 

Monday 30th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy with heavy rain across Ireland, Wales and England. Scotland see's some sunshine mostly in the North with some wintry showers.

Temperatures: Min -2°C to max 13°C. Mostly 5°C to 11°C.

Wind: Gales in the far North of Scotland and across Southern parts of Ireland, Wales and England elsewhere though is calm or breezy.

Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 3mm to 7mm.

 

Tuesday 1st December 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy and overcast with rain over Scotland and showers elsewhere. Possibly turning foggy in the North West of Scotlannd at times.

Temperatures: Min -2°C to max 13°C. Mostly 7°C to 12°C.

Wind: Gale force winds likely mainly in the West.

Rainfall: 4mm to 9mm.

 

Wednesday 2nd December 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy and overcast with showers some wintry possibly wintry over Scotland.

Temperatures: Min 0°C to max 13°C. Mostly 6°C to 12°C.

Wind: Gales continuing with possible severe gales in the West.

Rainfall: Rain or showers some wintry 2mm to 6mm.

 

Thursday & Friday 3rd & 4th December 2015

 

 

Summary: Staying unsettled with plenty of rain on Thursday but turning drier on Friday.

Temperatures: Min 0°C to max 12°C. Mostly 5°C to 10°C.

Wind: Gales on Thursday and into early Friday then easing down later.

Rainfall: 2mm to 6mm.

[Zenarcher]

Overall Summary: Severe gales on Sunday for the Southern half of the UK and for Ireland and wintry weather in Scotland. For most of next week staying mostly cold, unsettled, wet and windy. Signs of high pressure moving in from the South West for next weekend giving the Southern half some drier weather.

 

Sunday 29th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy and overcast for most places with heavy rain over much of the UK and Ireland with wintry weather in Scotland.

Temperatures: Min -2°C to max 13°C. Mostly 5°C to 11°C.

Wind: Gale to severe gales for most of the day in Ireland, Wales and England where gusts are expected to be around 60 to 70 mph. Gales arriving later for Scotland.

Rainfall: Rain or showers some wintry 2mm to 6mm.

 

Monday 30th November 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy with heavy rain across Ireland, Wales and England. Scotland see's some sunshine with some wintry showers.

Temperatures: Min -3°C to max 13°C. Mostly 3°C to 11°C.

Wind: Gales in the far North of Scotland and across Southern parts of Ireland, Wales and England elsewhere though is calm or breezy.

Rainfall: Rain or wintry showers 5mm to 10mm.

 

Tuesday 1st December 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy and overcast with widespread rain all over the UK and Ireland especially in West and Northern parts.

Temperatures: Min -3°C to max 13°C. Mostly 7°C to 12°C.

Wind: Gales for Ireland, England and Wales.

Rainfall: 3mm to 7mm.

 

Wednesday 2nd December 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy and overcast start with widespread rain some wintry weather for Scotland. Clearing up to some sunshine later for Ireland, Scotland and Northern England.

Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 13°C. Mostly 6°C to 12°C.

Wind: Gales for the far North of Scotland.

Rainfall: Rain or showers some wintry 2mm to 6mm.

 

Thursday 3rd December 2015

 

Summary: Cloudy and overcast with rain over England and Wales.

Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 5°C to 9°C.

Wind: Gales in the West and North.

Rainfall: 2mm to 6mm.

 

Friday & Saturday 4th & 5th December 2015

 

 

Summary: Staying windy and unsettled but turning drier especially across the South.

Temperatures: Min -1°C to max 11°C. Mostly 5°C to 8°C.

Wind: Gales mainly in the West and North.

Rainfall: 1mm to 3mm.

Edited November 28, 2015 by Zenarcher

[Methuselah]

Thanks for all the effort you put into these forecasts, Zen. Much appreciated!  

[Zenarcher]

Thanks for all the effort you put into these forecasts, Zen. Much appreciated!  

 

Thanks glad you like them.