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A very late season tropical depression has formed to the south of the Gulf Of Tehuantepec. Winds are at 30kts. 22E has a small, well defined LLC, tucked beneath a cluster of deep convection. Shear is low and waters are anomalously warm, near 30°C. These factors suggest strengthening will occur. Just how much is open to question, but models are quite keen on making 22E a hurricane, with some models forecasting 22E to be near major hurricane strength at peak.

A westward track is expected over the day or so, followed by a recurve northeastwards towards Baja California. The recurve will be induced by an approaching trough, which should serve to weaken the system in the longer range, before any landfall.

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22E has become Tropical Storm Sandra, with winds of 40kts. Sandra's inner core has tightened, and a small central dense overcast has formed, along with a well defined primary banding feature to the north.

Model intensity forecasts have backed off the kind of strengthening they were forecasting earlier. This is surprising, given that shear is low, waters anomalously warm, and humidity high. NHC are forecasting a peak of 80kts due to the model intensity guidance, but the environmental factors seem to suggest that Sandra could become stronger than this.

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Sandra has become a hurricane overnight, with winds now at 65kts. The central dense overcast has become solid and there have been glimpses of an eye overnight. Conditions favour potentially rapid intensification, and NHC now forecast Sandra to peak at 100kts, a cat 3 major hurricane. They even say this estimate could be conservative.

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Latest NHC advisory ups the winds to 75kts. Sandra is quite a small hurricane, meaning rapid intensification is more likely.

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Sandra has become a category 2 hurricane, with winds of 85kts. Sandra is now the strongest hurricane on record for so late in the season. And it's strengthening isn't done yet. Further rapid intensification is likely.

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Sandra has become the 9th major hurricane of the Eastern Pacific season. This is another record for the basin. Winds are at 100kts.

Further intensification is likely over the next 12 hours, followed by weakening as shear rises on the northeasterly track.

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Sandra has become a category 4 hurricane with winds of 125kts, unprecedented for so late in the season. The hurricane has probably done strengthening as shear values are much higher along Sandra's northward track.

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Sandra is being destroyed by shear. Winds are down to 55kts, and are falling rapidly. Sandra's convection resides well northeast of the exposed LLCC. Sandra is likely to weaken to a tropical depression soon, and will likely degenerate into a remnant low before hitting the coast.

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