south indian ocean Severe Tropical Storm Annabelle

[Somerset Squall]

The first tropcial cyclone of the South Indian Ocean cyclone season 2015-16 has formed about 175 miles south-southwest of Diego Garcia. The system has winds of 35kts according to JTWC, and is characterised by a well defined circulation and good convective banding. Strengthening is expected over the next few days, as outflow remains very good and waters warm in this time. Thereafter, as 03S slips southeast, it'll move over cooler waters and increased shear, inducing weakening.

[Somerset Squall]

03S has slowly strengthened, and now has winds of 50kts according to JTWC. The storm has been named Annabelle by MeteoFrance. The storm is crawling towards the south currently, but should accelerate to the southeast soon as ridging to the northeaat begins to dominate. JTWC expect a peak of 60kts before Annabelle becomes overwhelmed by shear and moves over cooler waters.

[Somerset Squall]

Annabelle has had an intermittent eye feature overnight, which has recently become cloud filled again. Winds are up to 60kts according to JTWC. Time is running out for Annabelle to strengthen, as shear is beginning to increase and the southward track begins to take Annabelle over cooler water.