Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, surely it's nicer to have a little bit of a buzz about the place regardless of whether it'll come off or not?

Usually I'd spend half the week's nights looking at this forum, but the weather has been so dull and boring of late, I've been elsewhere.  (dull in the Midlands I meant)

If you have a cold spell on the way, you can get as many as 30 pages in the MOD thread per night, and it's bloody good fun!

I really don't think should be putting a dampener on things, this is a weather forum, not a 'full gone conclusion/you can't comment, because it most likely to be wrong' forum.

Chill out, have fun, wildly speculate and don't let anyone bully into silence just because they think they know best (you know who you are) 

 

LET'S HAVE FUN  AGAIN!!   

[Coopsy]

37 minutes ago, heccygabber said:

Lol in model thread they are posting cold charts 7+ days away, don't they ever learn? It'll be gone tomorrow probably.

Its so much more than just getting cold in 7 days....its the the build up, the possibilities, looking at different charts, different weather systems, seeing what runs have changed, what's fundamentally changing in the atmosphere due to complex weather patterns over the other side of the world and so on and so on

[snowrye]

I await the inevitable backtrack and customery throwing of the toys,along with a hint of spit youre dummies out,soz,off topic

[Froze were the Days]

The more times we have op runs like today's ecm at 9/10 days the more opportunities we have of 1 actually varifying...murphys law really. To date this is only the 2nd time so far this winter we've really had anything to chomp on around that range (I think). Fingers crossed, I won't get carried away until we get nearer the 5 day point as experience has showed.

[Yarmy]

Seems to me that there are a lot more posts moaning about the cold hype in the MOD thread than there are posts hype-ing the cold. 

There is not single member of this forum who has spent more than 5 minutes looking at charts who believes the ECM D10 will verify as shown. Of course it won't. The question is whether the approximate long wave pattern shown of an Atlantic ridge twinned with a polar height build will occur. That will take several days to determine.

[Woollymummy]

I think it is ultimately helpful to see the excitement building even if it comes to nothing, as it helps those of us who have no experience of weather model watching during a cold spell to learn what the signals are, the importance of watching changes in the Pacific affecting UK, looking at the way the state of the atmosphere in July can hint at what we get in Jan/Feb (is that right?) and if the bonus is snow and ice, so be it, looking forward to it immensely, but if it all spins the wrong way, at least we know what to look for next time.

[Timmytour]

On 30 December 2015 at 7:10 PM, Timmytour said:

1955 is a good year to look at for those looking for a cold first 3 months  to follow a mild Nov and Dec......

Fascinating to look back at the model discussions around this time last year.  We know what happened, and yet it seems there was more optimism about getting something decent in the way of wintry then then there was this year  (especially for those down south)

While there have been outbreaks of optimism this year, it would seem that the outlook is worse.....yet I find that over the past few days I've become a lot more optimistic.  i have a little sense of things almost falling into place, failing back out of place but then coming back to try again, much as happened in Jan 2013. 


My prediction..... 4th Jan....GFS and ECM are going to start coming together to show us something special in FI and drive the excitement on here sky high..... after some dips the models will consolidate around 10th Jan with the weather itself starting to deliver about the 14th........it's coming!!!

 

 

On 02 January 2016 at 11:32 PM, Timmytour said:

GFS beginning to smell the coffee in FI.....I'll give ECM a coupleof days to catch up....probably while GFS drops it and then picks it up again

Sounds like ECM is catching up.....

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, after a nice night spent dreaming of snowflakes and ice skating on frozen ponds, I awake to see it's all gone a bit ...'meh!'

 

It could be a lot worse, but it's not as good as last night. I think we're on the right path though, just a few more upgrades needed and we could be on to something better than perpetual rain and mild 

[Bristawl Si]

Patience required.

If one follows GP's posts the last third of January has the potential to 'deliver'.

[mushymanrob]

13 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Well, surely it's nicer to have a little bit of a buzz about the place regardless of whether it'll come off or not?

Usually I'd spend half the week's nights looking at this forum, but the weather has been so dull and boring of late, I've been elsewhere.  (dull in the Midlands I meant)

If you have a cold spell on the way, you can get as many as 30 pages in the MOD thread per night, and it's bloody good fun!

I really don't think should be putting a dampener on things, this is a weather forum, not a 'full gone conclusion/you can't comment, because it most likely to be wrong' forum.

Chill out, have fun, wildly speculate and don't let anyone bully into silence just because they think they know best (you know who you are) 

 

LET'S HAVE FUN  AGAIN!!   

bib... disagree with that.

id sooner have 1 page of reasoned, informed, unbiased and more accurate posts then pages of ramping nonsense.

but then again, im here for weather, not cold only.

[Buzz]

50 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

bib... disagree with that.

id sooner have 1 page of reasoned, informed, unbiased and more accurate posts then pages of ramping nonsense.

but then again, im here for weather, not cold only.

Join the club. I see that the usual nonsense is being posted in the main model thread highlighting scenarios which are 10 days away.

I can see the point of looking for trends, but when certain posters regurgitate 10 day cold/snowy charts with no insightful and explanatory commentary they are doing nothing more than ramping, and any ramping belongs in this thread where it can be taken with a truck load of salt.

[northwestsnow]

Just read the bbc monthly out look updated every monday, and it is NOT good viewing!! 

[Dancerwithwings]

I'm one for ramping!!!  and why not after the weather patten we've had to endure so far this winter....So just for you cyclonic happiness

 

[markyo]

1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

bib... disagree with that.

id sooner have 1 page of reasoned, informed, unbiased and more accurate posts then pages of ramping nonsense.

but then again, im here for weather, not cold only.

Very much agree with you on that point,1 page of knowledgeable discussion is far more useful than page after page of people just straw clutching for their preferred weather setup.

[Dancerwithwings]

Morning all,

WINTER (the models) is showing itself finally for the start of next week

Also maybe prolonged if the GFS in FI comes to fruition.

Snow arrives, cold weather invades the UK

Right all hearsay at the moment and we have been at this time-frame before ???

But after the weather patten we have been enduring so far this Winter.....I need this fix this is my RAMP enough said

Edited 16 minutes ago by Dancerwithwings

[PLANET THANET]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Just read the bbc monthly out look updated every monday, and it is NOT good viewing!! 

I dont like to admit it but after reading the monthly outlook myself it does look as though apart from very brief colder interludes north of england to scotland and drier interludes further south we seem stuck in a rut, only hope that GPs torpedo hits its target square on and doesnt miss!! 

[radiohead]

I just can't get excited over the FI cold charts anymore. How often do we see these downgrade.....a Greenland High becoming a toppler, become a watered down toppler and then it collapses quicker and further east on every run until we end up with a 12 hour window of downgraded cold air mainly restricted to the north...if we are lucky.

I know that is very pessimistic but it just feels so very familiar in recent years. I guess it's the same problem that causes models to overdo low pressure systems in FI.

I hope I'm wrong. I'll be happy to get on board the train if things are looking good at 120 hous!

 

[mountain shadow]

4 hours ago, radiohead said:

I just can't get excited over the FI cold charts anymore. How often do we see these downgrade.....a Greenland High becoming a toppler, become a watered down toppler and then it collapses quicker and further east on every run until we end up with a 12 hour window of downgraded cold air mainly restricted to the north...if we are lucky.

I know that is very pessimistic but it just feels so very familiar in recent years. I guess it's the same problem that causes models to overdo low pressure systems in FI.

I hope I'm wrong. I'll be happy to get on board the train if things are looking good at 120 hous!

 

I would say you are wrong. I'm expecting at least a 48 hour situation,  no toppler for me.

 

[ReindeerMarmalade]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

bib... disagree with that.

id sooner have 1 page of reasoned, informed, unbiased and more accurate posts then pages of ramping nonsense.

but then again, im here for weather, not cold only.

Are people not discussing the model outputs? Is there a limit to how far out people are allowed to look and discuss? Would you be so aggrieved if it were page after page of mild dross? Sure, not everyone likes cold but then life would be boring if everyone liked the same thing. And if there really were 'pages of ramping nonsense' I'm sure the moderators would do something about it ;).

[SLEETY]

Rubbish update from meto if you looking for cold and snow,maybe a brief cold spell end of next week then temps mainly average or above., and sounds like they expecting Azores high to build as they say drier for S . What has happened to Jan,it hardly feels like a winter month at all anymore,how many jans' since 87 have had a decent cold spell in them,hardly any at all,hopefully Feb and march can deliver one single snowflake !,

[mushymanrob]

15 minutes ago, ReindeerMarmalade said:

Are people not discussing the model outputs? Is there a limit to how far out people are allowed to look and discuss? Would you be so aggrieved if it were page after page of mild dross? Sure, not everyone likes cold but then life would be boring if everyone liked the same thing. And if there really were 'pages of ramping nonsense' I'm sure the moderators would do something about it ;).

you appear to have misunderstood what i was saying.

 

[ReindeerMarmalade]

20 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

you appear to have misunderstood what i was saying.

 

Hahahaha OK then

[cheeky_monkey]

1 hour ago, SLEETY said:

Rubbish update from meto if you looking for cold and snow,maybe a brief cold spell end of next week then temps mainly average or above., and sounds like they expecting Azores high to build as they say drier for S . What has happened to Jan,it hardly feels like a winter month at all anymore,how many jans' since 87 have had a decent cold spell in them,hardly any at all,hopefully Feb and march can deliver one single snowflake !,

Wasn't  Jan 2010 cold?

Edited January 4, 2016 by cheeky_monkey

[Captain Shortwave]

5 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Wasn't  Jan 2010 cold?

Or Jan 2013 for that matter...

[markyo]

10 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Or Jan 2013 for that matter...

Nether where anything like what you would call cold in my neck of the woods