Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[cheeky_monkey]

So can we write off december yet? To me the pattern looks pretty entrenched!! Sadly we have been here before on many occasions in many years. I am not writing off winter but to me we better hope that late January and Feb deliver!!

yep I wouldn't be advising anyone to invest in a sledge for this winter..unless its sister sledge xmas album

[radiohead]

So can we write off december yet? To me the pattern looks pretty entrenched!! Sadly we have been here before on many occasions in many years. I am not writing off winter but to me we better hope that late January and Feb deliver!!

A write off up until mid-Dec looks likely.

[Cheshire Freeze]

So can we write off december yet? To me the pattern looks pretty entrenched!! Sadly we have been here before on many occasions in many years. I am not writing off winter but to me we better hope that late January and Feb deliver!!

 

Entrenched? The predicted (for now) pattern has only just started 

Edited November 24, 2015 by CreweCold

[Abyss]

yep I wouldn't be advising anyone to invest in a sledge for this winter..unless its sister sledge xmas album

Jesus. I've seen people write off Winter at Xmas and think that was premature but November? That's a first. Winter hasn't even begun yet. I feel that deserves some kind of award 

[lassie23]

Jesus. I've seen people write off Winter at Xmas and think that was premature but November? That's a first. Winter hasn't even begun yet. I feel that deserves some kind of award 

How about a free sledge?

[Liam J]

So can we write off december yet? To me the pattern looks pretty entrenched!! Sadly we have been here before on many occasions in many years. I am not writing off winter but to me we better hope that late January and Feb deliver!!

The pattern is just about to begin in the near future if the models are calling it right.... Entrenched? Not yet....Once it becomes established then yes it could become entrenched.... Nothing at all unusual for the time of year though.  

[Liam J]

The Met Office 30 day forecast is now just about up to Christmas day, looks like a pretty standard December coming up at the moment, which is what current model guidance is suggesting at least for the start of the month. 

 

 

 

UK Outlook for Wednesday 9 Dec 2015 to Wednesday 23 Dec 2015:

Often unsettled through mid-December across the UK. Showers or longer spells of rain will affect most parts as Atlantic weather systems continue to move in from the west, these bringing periods of strong winds or gales. Temperatures are likely to be around average or slightly above, although night frosts are likely in clearer periods between weather systems.

Edited November 24, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Mark Neal.]

A write off up until mid-Dec looks likely.

Thats a 3/4 weeks down the line! 

[BlueHedgehog074]

I think should a Westerly, Atlantic, drivern pattern like this occur for a few weeks or so, with little in the way of cold spells, it provides a great excuse to avoid WMA - Weather Model Addiction. (That really only being applicable if you're not a fan of Atlantic and/or mild weather). Just find sometimes when there is a possible, potent, cold spell on the way, find myself just looking at every run of every model in hope the cold weather doesn't get terminated. Not to mention, NWFA (Netweather Forum Addiction) can also take over when cold weather starts arising.

As some say, though, surprises can happen with regards to weather patterns. The outcomes the models show for 2 or so weeks ahead isn't neccesarily set.

[MP-R]

Entrenched? The predicted (for now) pattern has only just started 

 

People getting ahead of themselves, a bit like when cold spells are shown in FI lol.

 

The pattern is just about to begin in the near future if the models are calling it right.... Entrenched? Not yet....Once it becomes established then yes it could become entrenched.... Nothing at all unusual for the time of year though.  

 

It would be quite unusual actually - some of the charts could bring maxima as high as 15C which is hardly normal for December. Atlantic weather, yes, is normal. Tropical weather on the other hand?... just no.

[igloo]

a repeat of last winter looks more and more likely now with some places not seeing a single flake of snow. i wonder what names the met office will come up with when we get to the letters w,x,y,z with the storms we will see for the next 3 months batting down the hatches everyone 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

funny... i was thinking the opposite! that i fully expect this pattern to be here in 4 weeks time!

this pattern will be hard to shift, i cant see it going anywhere fast soon. of course it will break, there will be a change, we just dont know when. it could be 2 weeks or 2 months and when it does change, it doesnt mean itll change to a wintry scenario - it might just as easily get very mild.

 

Not a moan or a ramp, but I presume you expect a mild/very mild winter?  I know you want a mild winter, but that isn't the same thing!

[Ravelin]

a repeat of last winter looks more and more likely now with some places not seeing a single flake of snow. i wonder what names the met office will come up with when we get to the letters w,x,y,z with the storms we will see for the next 3 months batting down the hatches everyone 

 

Look at the date, it's 24th of November.

 

The number of posts writing off the whole of the winter, or even just the next 6 weeks, in the last few days is beyond ridiculous. If a couple of days worth of charts showed a cold period coming up would as many people be so quick to start stating "cold locked in until March", "epic winter guaranteed now"?

 

Edit: Yarmy's post below proves my point. That may not happen, but neither may all the 'mild' charts, nothing is set in stone yet. Get several weeks into a mild wet westerly flow with no sign of it ending in sight and then I might start to concede 'winter's over'.

Edited November 24, 2015 by Ravelin

[Yarmy]

Hang on a minute...

 

 

You never know 

 

Edit: Gets even more insane later on. I'd suggest the GFS has started drinking well in advance of opening time.

Edited November 24, 2015 by Yarmy

[Liam J]

 

 

 

It would be quite unusual actually - some of the charts could bring maxima as high as 15C which is hardly normal for December. Atlantic weather, yes, is normal. Tropical weather on the other hand?... just no.

Temps look generally around average for most of the UK, slightly above at times with 12/13c tops for parts of the south & south east and not widespread or looking as mild as it was earlier this month, at the moment anyway... 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Jesus. I've seen people write off Winter at Xmas and think that was premature but November? That's a first. Winter hasn't even begun yet. I feel that deserves some kind of award 

 

There are enough knowledgeable posters here saying the same thing to make me think they might be correct.  In fact, I have a (personal and very unscientific) pet hypothesis that the experts who said that lowland Britain wouldn't see snow post-2010 were right, but just a few years premature.  The past two winters, when taken into context with how this one appears to be heading, makes me wonder whether climate change has so comprehensively altered the NH winter that it tips the UK past the point of no return.

Edited November 24, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheforecaster

[Ravelin]

I have a (personal and very unscientific) pet hypothesis that the experts who said that lowland Britain wouldn't see snow post-2010 were right, but just a few years premature. 

 

I live in Lowland Britain and I had 7cm of snow lying on Sunday morning, better not tell the 'experts' though, it might upset them.

 

makes me wonder whether climate change has so comprehensively altered the NH winter that it tips the UK past the point of no return.

 

Nice to see we've moved on from 'winter's over' to 'every future winter is over'.

Edited November 24, 2015 by Ravelin

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I live in Lowland Britain and I had 7cm of snow lying on Sunday morning, better not tell the 'experts' though, it might upset them.

 

 

 

 

Nice to see we've moved on from 'winter's over' to 'every future winter is over'.

 

Sorry, I didn't make myself clear; I should have added that I was referring to both altitude and latitude when I used the phrase "Lowland Britain".  I appreciate that you're technically not in the Highlands, but, perhaps you're far enough North to be an exception.

I did try to make it clear that it was a personal hypothesis and not supported by any science.  I don't know what your views on AGW are, but, for the purposes of this discussion, it doesn't matter what the cause(s) is/are; surely the measured warming is real.  I honestly don't know whether climate researchers claim to be able to predict with any accuracy the long-term effect of climate change on UK winters, but I'd imagine that there must be some uncertainty (I would doubt that p<0.05, for example).

[Liam J]

R.I.P winter 2015-16... 

 

 

 

[Yarmy]

Sorry, I didn't make myself clear; I should have added that I was referring to both altitude and latitude when I used the phrase "Lowland Britain".  I appreciate that you're technically not in the Highlands, but, perhaps you're far enough North to be an exception.

I did try to make it clear that it was a personal hypothesis and not supported by any science.  I don't know what your views on AGW are, but, for the purposes of this discussion, it doesn't matter what the cause(s) is/are; surely the measured warming is real.  I honestly don't know whether climate researchers claim to be able to predict with any accuracy the long-term effect of climate change on UK winters, but I'd imagine that there must be some uncertainty (I would doubt that p<0.05, for example).

 

Well, of course global warming is real, but the effects might manifest themselves in a variety of ways. Perhaps the unusually low ice over the Barents Sea has increased snowfall over Russia, perhaps the AMOC is being attenuated via freshening, etc...

 

Besides, living in Norfolk like me you must have witnessed at least 2 significant snow events post-2010 and it doesn't get more lowland than where we are. 

Edited November 24, 2015 by Yarmy

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

R.I.P winter 2015-16... 

 

coffin.PNG

 

LOL!  I stress I wouldn't know from the models or global feedbacks whether a blizzard was expected next week; I'm getting concerned that this might well be another mild, dull, wet winter in much the same vein as the last two down here based on posters here who seem to know their stuff.  For all that Rob and Scott annoy me sometimes with their love of mild, gloomy drizzle, they seem to have a reasonable idea of what the likely outcomes are.  John Holmes is, in his usual cautious way, seeing nothing other than Atlantic zonality either, AFAIK.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Well, of course global warming is real, but the effects might manifest themselves in a variety of ways. Perhaps the unusually low ice over the Barents Sea has increased snowfall over Russia, perhaps the AMOC is being attenuated via freshening, etc...

 

Besides, living in Norfolk like me you must have witnessed at least 2 significant snow events post-2010 and it doesn't get more lowland than where we are. 

 

Thanks Yarmy.  I do apprciate that the cause of the last two winters might not have anything to do with AGW, and I'm aware that the predicted reduction in AMOC was over-hyped in the media a few years back.  Regarding 2010 and 2013, they, if anything, made me wonder whether the opposite was happening; wre our winters going to be more severe in future?    I'm not great with recalling exact dtails, so I'd like to know what your impression was, but it seemed that here, 2010 was colder, but 2013 was snowier.

[Yarmy]

Thanks Yarmy.  I do apprciate that the cause of the last two winters might not have anything to do with AGW, and I'm aware that the predicted reduction in AMOC was over-hyped in the media a few years back.  Regarding 2010 and 2013, they, if anything, made me wonder whether the opposite was happening; wre our winters going to be more severe in future?    I'm not great with recalling exact dtails, so I'd like to know what your impression was, but it seemed that here, 2010 was colder, but 2013 was snowier.

 

Yeah, Dec 10 was ferociously cold but not that snowy here. Mid-Jan 13 was very snowy.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

met office update looks more realistic, GFS 12Z feel is a one off run, no way high pressure will be near us around 6th Dec, early Dec is the most Atlantic dominated time of the year, snow is as rare as breaking 20°C at low levels in the south

[cheese]

met office update looks more realistic, GFS 12Z feel is a one off run, no way high pressure will be near us around 6th Dec, early Dec is the most Atlantic dominated time of the year, snow is as rare as breaking 20°C at low levels in the south

How is snow as rare as 20C if 20C has never occurred in any winter month, let alone December?