Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[knocker]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Apologies, Sir - merely my (probably faulty) interpretation of the outputs you have posted.  At no point have you actually suggested it.

Apology accepted. Lashes cancelled.

[knocker]

The possible travels of Alex and the 200mb wind field

T18 997mb

Upper ridge builds to the east pushing Alex north

T60 now situated SE of Greenland

GEFS latest model tracks

[jethro]

3 hours ago, pegg24 said:

Use to think living in Northants we were the only one's not getting anything.

seem to think its not just us at the moment.

Surprised to hear you say that. I used to live in Northants (Eydon) and I'd class it as one of the snowiest places I've ever lived. Admittedly it was the mid 1980's and Eydon's 600ft asl, but back then Northants seemed to do a lot better than many other places. Moved from there to North Yorks, a place you'd expect to be snowy but in the ten years up there I can count the snow events on the fingers of one hand. Timing maybe more than location?

[Mokidugway]

3 hours ago, Deep Snow please said:

It's a mongooseing joke in there. 

We have to keep the lunatics somwhere .    

[Methuselah]

Who told this lot that latest GFS was crap?

 

[knocker]

Sidney took one look and was agog

Edited January 14, 2016 by knocker

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Sidney took one look and was agog

You two will be happy with that even though most here won't be...  Mind you, if we do get a re-run of December in February (not saying you're predicting it; no need to hit me LOL), the people of Cumbria will surely be wondering what they've done wrong.

[knocker]

It's not Sidney,s nuts I'm concerned about.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

It's not Sidney,s nuts I'm concerned about.

This will probably be deleted, but I just have to...

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

 

GEFS latest model tracks

Here we have the predictive track of a hurricane and it's heading north towards the tip of Greenland and you look at the calendar and it's the middle of January......bonkers.

[fat chad]

6 hours ago, knocker said:

Because I tend to throw the toys back into the pram.

Well stay the voice of reason and get back into the woodshed with your red crayons and start posting in the mod thread.... Some folk just cant help but get carried in away in there, but lets face it... As much as we love our hobby here, it is only the weather after all.... Be lucky fella..

[I remember Atlantic 252]

still makes me wonder if GFS has been the best model with this setup over past few days, has on a few runs brought the Atlantic in on monday, where as ECM and UKMO having none of it

'victory' for GFS, I do actually think so, ECM 12Z I would be amazed if it followed UKMO, GFS has 10°C max on tuesday

[Mapantz]

I'll put this in here instead of the MOD thread.

Glosea can be found here: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

Courtesy of the  Met Office.
 

[knocker]

The GEFS five day anomaly starting on the 18th has a deep upper low in the NW Atlantic which has, temporarily, supressed the HP over the UK allowing warm moist SW air into the UK. It was the mid level circulation of this low tat dictated the track of Alex and may well be the entrance of the latter on the scene that has shifted the dynamics for a time in the N. Atlantic. You can see Alex on the 700mb chart..

After this brief hiatus the European HP reasserts itself and we are back to where we were before the rude interruption.

It did cross my mind that perhaps this influx of tropical moist air could perhaps could perhaps trigger a significant snow event if it sneaked into the UK over the very cold air in the boundary layer but that's just me being silly.

Edited January 14, 2016 by knocker

[Snowyowl9]

UKMO is nothing to moan about what a differenence of opinion we have here between the charts,I`ve not see anything like it.

[knocker]

model members at 12z

[Bristawl Si]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

still makes me wonder if GFS has been the best model with this setup over past few days, has on a few runs brought the Atlantic in on monday, where as ECM and UKMO having none of it

'victory' for GFS, I do actually think so, ECM 12Z I would be amazed if it followed UKMO, GFS has 10°C max on tuesday

So, you already know that GFS has called Monday's weather correctly, even though today is Thursday of the preceding week?

Wow! Are you already a millionaire? Because if not, you soon will be.

[radiohead]

[knocker]

The ecm anomaly not dissimilar to the GEFS and it also  has the HP becoming more influential by Sunday but during the ext period this influence begins to wane and the flow veers to westerly by T360. It has to said NOAA doesn't waver from the HP influence.

 

 

[snow mad]

This looks like being a sh#t cold spell in a sh#t run of winters! Bring on summer. Probably knowing our luck will be colder than this sh#tty cold spell that isn't that cold and certainly isn't going to be snowy. Onto next winter please as this one is pants!

[knocker]

Hurricane Alex Bearing North Toward the Azores

[knocker]

They are writing off a major cold outbreak upstream as well

Dan Leonard ‏@DanLeonard_wx 2h2 hours ago

Pattern change imminent last week Jan. Pacific is the same but reversal in NAO means end of arctic cold, for now.

 

 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

All I can say is that GFS has performed like a 'flip flop' all throughout this cold spell! Much like it's old predecessor! 

[knocker]

Tonight's EC32 has the warm air moving through on Wednesday/

[knocker]

The conundrum the GFS poses this morning is snow or rain on the little shortwave early next week and how far east?