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Paul

Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

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7 hours ago, snowspotter said:

I know where your coming from but realistically when was the last time the lizard peninsula had any sort of cold spell . I struggle over here so it must be pretty rare for where you are ! 

Actually,we get snow here quite often,alot more often than most people would assume.

Like everywhere else,2010 was very icy here, january 2013 we had a day of lying snow and even last winter we had snow settle for a few hours.

28th feb 2004 was v snowy,remember it well,it was my stag night.

Think it was january 2010 we were effectively cut off here for 3 days

14th feb 1994 was snowy as was 8th feb 1991

And of course,the big daddy of them all, Jan 87.

Need i go on.

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58 minutes ago, knocker said:

The AO and NAO are defined by surface atmospheric pressure patterns. The latter changes so thus the former does. It's a cart and horse scenario.

The ecm has them both going positive in about a week. Ha

eps_nao_12.thumb.png.51761ca9ad17a78820feps_ao_00.thumb.png.fadd53bc6eba4be9026e

Do I presume by your "Ha" that you don't altogether subscribe to a rapid reversal of AO and NAO?  Liking your "repeated acts of self-flagellation" comment.:D

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Not at all  as it does tend to fit the METO forecast.(just updated)

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4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Not at all  as it does tend to fit the METO forecast.(just updated)

Schadenfreude, then?:D

Speaking of the Met Office long-range - the section from 27th onwards is so vague as to effectively describe a statistically-typical British winter; "wetter in north-west, sunnier in the south-east, temperatures around average, but varying as systems pass through".  Hardly the punt of the century!

Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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quite disastrous here really when there was supposed to be high pressure in charge for a reasonable period

heavy rain all day today and surface flooding developing now

tomorrow looks a washout too then a brief cold snap and maybe 2 dry days before a return to the onslaught of rain again

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Amazing how the UKMO 12z and GFS operational 12z can be so different at t-144. Personally I would be backing UKMO as it appears to be backed up by the anomaly charts. 

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I must be one of the few that's pleased the forthcoming cold snap won't be particularly cold. I stupidly switched the central heating off prior to heading to the Switzerland last Thursday. At least I won't return to burst pipes in a week or so.

There's been very little in the way of snow and cold for my area of late and I don't expect that to change much for the rest of winter.

Fortunately Switzerland is soothing my snow addiction with well over a meter of fresh snow falling since Thursday. Temperatures with wind chill factored in are forecast to be as low as -23*C this week.

Here's a taster of conditions:

 

20160112_115140_resized.jpg

Edited by Norrona2015
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11 minutes ago, Norrona2015 said:

I must be one of the few that's pleased the forthcoming cold snap won't be particularly cold. I stupidly switched the central heating off prior to heading to the Switzerland last Thursday. At least I won't return to burst pipes in a week or so.

There's been very little in the way of snow and cold for my area of late and I don't expect that to change much for the rest of winter.

Fortunately Switzerland is soothing my snow addiction with well over a meter of fresh snow falling since Thursday. Temperatures with wind chill factored in are forecast to be as low as -23*C this week.

Here's a taster of conditions:

 

20160112_115140_resized.jpg

thats just rubbing it in that is! :wallbash:

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The Irish met have changed Mondays forcast for winds on Monday to now be coming from the South East. Would that suggest systems are undercutting as per UKMO. These update 4 times a day and the last 3 or 4 suggested winds from the west but that changed in this afternoons update.

 

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59 minutes ago, Ice Cube said:

The Irish met have changed Mondays forcast for winds on Monday to now be coming from the South East. Would that suggest systems are undercutting as per UKMO. These update 4 times a day and the last 3 or 4 suggested winds from the west but that changed in this afternoons update.

 

If they are along the lines of the ecm you have a slider shortwave running SSE down the west side of the ridge which would give you a south easterly at least for a while.

Edited by knocker

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Won't be mentioned once in the model thread obviously but chance of  a decent  snow event tomorrow in southern Scotland and the central belt

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2 hours ago, Norrona2015 said:

I must be one of the few that's pleased the forthcoming cold snap won't be particularly cold. I stupidly switched the central heating off prior to heading to the Switzerland last Thursday. At least I won't return to burst pipes in a week or so.

There's been very little in the way of snow and cold for my area of late and I don't expect that to change much for the rest of winter.

Fortunately Switzerland is soothing my snow addiction with well over a meter of fresh snow falling since Thursday. Temperatures with wind chill factored in are forecast to be as low as -23*C this week.

Here's a taster of conditions:

 

20160112_115140_resized.jpg

I worked in Switzerland for one year, travelling over on a monday afternoon and returning on a friday night.  That winter I saw it snow more in the UK than I did in Zurich!!!   and it wasn't  great winter in the UK in particular!

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still wondering what all the fuss is about, even more so from an imby perspective, for the next 7 days, lowest daytime temp forecast to be 5c, lowest nightime -2c, no snow in the forecast, so chilly yes, cold, not really, and by this time next week temps are due to be back in the low teens, so a short chilly snap comming up.  

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On 30 December 2015 at 7:10 PM, Timmytour said:

1955 is a good year to look at for those looking for a cold first 3 months  to follow a mild Nov and Dec......

Fascinating to look back at the model discussions around this time last year.  We know what happened, and yet it seems there was more optimism about getting something decent in the way of wintry then then there was this year  (especially for those down south)

While there have been outbreaks of optimism this year, it would seem that the outlook is worse.....yet I find that over the past few days I've become a lot more optimistic.  i have a little sense of things almost falling into place, failing back out of place but then coming back to try again, much as happened in Jan 2013. 


My prediction..... 4th Jan....GFS and ECM are going to start coming together to show us something special in FI and drive the excitement on here sky high..... after some dips the models will consolidate around 10th Jan with the weather itself starting to deliver about the 14th........it's coming!!!

 

Aside from being maybe a couple of days late with the consolidation of the models (hopefully it happens tonight), I'm looking forward to quoting this again soonwith the strapline "I love it when a plan comes together" <fingers crossed> :)

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Funny I was just looking at the EPS 850mb means temps and it has the warm air creeping in middle of next week and I'm still wondering whether this could herald a sig. snow event after a cold dry weekend.

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The ecm anomaly at T168 has ridging to the west sneaking up into Greenland with a deep LP NE Canada, This is the beginning of the breakdown according to the ecm as the Canadian trough shifts SE into the western Atlantic and the positive heights to the west of the UK slip east introducing warmer (note warmer not warm) air over the UK. This is not exactly reverting to an Atlantic train as the HP ridging from the south would still be quite influential but it wouldn't be a cold high.

ecm_eps_z500a_nh_8.thumb.png.7cb569ceafeecm_eps_z500a_nh_11.thumb.png.a87fac0680

Edited by knocker
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Invest 90 and the shortwave offshoots.

gefs_AL90_2016011218.thumb.png.babf01093

At T60

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_10.thumb.png.1999f9867

At T102 it's spawned a shortwave en route to S. Greenland

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_17.thumb.png.53e5f2e44

At T114 yet another shortwave that appears west of Ireland

gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_19.thumb.png.2132a8805

En route to Cornwall bringing rain on the associated front. Possible snow Wales & Somerset but a bit academic.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_eu_22.thumb.png.d0972e1cba

Still looking at the warmer air edging in midweek with possible snow event.

Edited by knocker
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disappointing GFS 00Z, looks snowless for my location, colder weekend, dry and cold early next week, then turning milder with a whimper later in the week, ECM also looking same way, no snow on Monday, milder by end of week

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Complete load of shyte, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't even get a frost out of this 'cold snap'  3 years without settling snow in just over a month and a half

How the heck can it have been one of then wettest winters on record UNTIL THE COLD AIR GETS HERE, right........end of rant!

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1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Complete load of shyte, I wouldn't be surprised if we didn't even get a frost out of this 'cold snap'  3 years without settling snow in just over a month and a half

How the heck can it have been one of then wettest winters on record UNTIL THE COLD AIR GETS HERE, right........end of rant!

think we will get a frost! but snow chances downgrading as every model run goes by, cold air arriving Thursday evening, staying until next Thurs (GFS) but no snow for low levels in the west midlands

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6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

think we will get a frost! but snow chances downgrading as every model run goes by, cold air arriving Thursday evening, staying until next Thurs (GFS) but no snow for low levels in the west midlands

I'm just hoping 'something....anything' pops up at short range, the snow always seems to be "next week"  it never gets any closer. There is a slight chance of a dusting tonight, but that will melt tomorrow and I won't be able to play in it or make snow angels or the such.   Why are the weather gods so cruel???  :D

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As usual the snow events are always fairy stories. Basically after two weeks of snowmageddon wind-ups, it's going to be a bit cold. Like January. Why do I let myself be drawn into this?

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