Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

[sundog]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Not sure why everyone in the Mod thread are arguing over whether each model has "got it wrong" or "backtracked" or whatever over the coming cool spell. It's an absolutely cr@p alleged cold spell anyway with v little snow forecast, except for 'the usual suspects'.

 

All they are dong is flogging a dead horse imo. They should try to preserve their sanity and let it go.

Edited January 12, 2016 by sundog

[coldcomfort]

Well if we thank back to what the models were showing a week or so ago things look decidedly poor from a cold perspective, indeed if this had been a normal winter so far the up coming spell would have barely warranted mention....normal or a little below looks about all the vast majority of us can expect, so wooopy doo! 

Going forward hope seem to be pinned on the UKMO, but lets be frank hopes are always based on the coldest model, with the return to milder weather early next week being touted by both ECM and GFS far more likely to verify imo. Beyond that it's good to read the latest ECM32 keeps high pressure close to the UK, so hopefully a much drier 2nd half of winter looks feasible, but as for any significant cold...well no doubt we will have to wait until April/May/June for that balance to manifest itself.

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by coldcomfort

[mushymanrob]

well theres still a huge disagreement between the ops and anoms. only the ukmo is close to what the anoms are suggesting. the gfs (00z) and ecm insist the atlantic systems will blow back pretty soon with mild southwesterlies. the anomaly charts though are sticking with high pressure close by and no southwesterly.

which will blink first?

[cobbett]

2 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

The Met Office going for a likely end to the cold into next week, sounds similar to what the ECM is showing with a return to unsettled and milder conditions towards mid week after a period of snow. Still a week away though so time for changes yet.

 

Yeah that "period of snow" will probably be the highlight of this cold spell but unfortunately will be gone by the next day !

[Timmytour]

It's like....you get excited....it going to be like old times.....it's going to be epic..... it's going under..!!!   

And then it doesn't......and you realise it never does these days and never has.....not since the day you got married!!!

Edited January 12, 2016 by Timmytour
typo

[Gord]

It's not looking like it's going to be a great cold spell but thank goodness we've had something to discuss before mid January hits. Don't know about the rest of you but I was starting to question my interest in the weather a couple of weeks ago. Thankfully the enthusiasm is returning again!

Edited January 12, 2016 by Gord

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, sundog said:

All they are dong is flogging a dead horse imo. They should try to preserve their sanity and let it go.

So we should all give-up on ever discussing cold weather unless it's as extreme as 1963 or December 2010?  Quite a few of us will be happy to have a few dry, chilly days with ground frosts before zonality returns.  Are we not allowed to examine model outputs in the thread set-aside for doing just that unless the models are showing extremes? 

[snowblizzard]

I think we just need to accept that there's no real severe cold & snowy weather on the cards for UK!

And, it's unlikely that with the recent set-up we will see anything different through the rest of January or February.

But, I bet we get a freezing cold Spring!

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by snowblizzard

[snow freak]

what is the point of the weather models when they still flip all over the place even a few days before the events?  I might as well just toss a coin and see where it lands as to whether it will be mild or cold.  As for all the hype a few days ago about the upcoming cold spell being something quite special, well that all went pear shaped ....yet again.  I am really beginning to hate the british weather now.  Yes it is unpredictable but that is precisely what I don't like about it.  And it really isn't that unpredictable when we can reliably forecast that rain, mildness and wind will be a fairly common feature in any of the months.

[sundog]

22 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

So we should all give-up on ever discussing cold weather unless it's as extreme as 1963 or December 2010?  Quite a few of us will be happy to have a few dry, chilly days with ground frosts before zonality returns.  Are we not allowed to examine model outputs in the thread set-aside for doing just that unless the models are showing extremes? 

No im not saying that. As regards this colder spell we just have to admit defeat on this one regarding proper cold which some are still chasing. stop beating it into he ground.  maybe more luck next month.

Edited January 12, 2016 by sundog

[snow freak]

15 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

something not matching? GFS how can it snow with these temps? GFS precip charts are useless

snow can fall with air temperatures up to 7c however for snow to settle the temperature needs to be 3c or under.

[snow freak]

14 hours ago, mountain shadow said:

A failed Easterly followed by a failed Northerly despite above average heights to the North.  It really is hard getting proper cold and snow to these islands.

one word for this islands weather...... failed.

[ManiaMuse]

So much straw clutching in the model thread. Just accept that any cold will be short-lived, snow pretty much a non-event and only over hills before the Atlantic waltzes back in next week. We're stuck in a default pattern weather-wise, maybe it will change to something more interesting before the end of Feb or maybe it won't, but no point chasing balloons.

No point hoping for marginal snow that's more likely to turn out to be miserable cold rain. The models just got it wrong on the snowpocalypse event in FI a week or so ago. Take a week off model watching I would advise for some and see if anything has changed by then.

[mountain shadow]

Despite the excellent Met Office runs I think we will definitely see the Atlantic returning next week for a couple of weeks whilst we await any favourable response from the SSW.

[stewfox]

23 minutes ago, snow freak said:

what is the point of the weather models when they still flip all over the place even a few days before the events?  I might as well just toss a coin and see where it lands as to whether it will be mild or cold.  As for all the hype a few days ago about the upcoming cold spell being something quite special, well that all went pear shaped ....yet again.  I am really beginning to hate the british weather now.  Yes it is unpredictable but that is precisely what I don't like about it.  And it really isn't that unpredictable when we can reliably forecast that rain, mildness and wind will be a fairly common feature in any of the months.

For all the long range forecasting and model output sometimes looking out of the window is still the best method

 

[Frank Trough]

one thing that I am still scratching my head about is how quickly the AO/NAO forecasts seemed to have turned around. It only seems a few days ago (in reality it's probably much longer - this happens all the time as I get older)  that I was reading with excitement posts showing the AO "tanking" and how it was off the scale, nothing like it since 2010... and now it's forecast to go positive again?

I guess I just thought these "broader scale" patterns were likely to be more stable. But then are they just composites of the model output anyway?

[10 Days Away]

Some  members need to find other interests to compliment their interest in the weather.

Surely the likelihood of snow should not be  a main driver in their lives.?

Very sad.

 

[Gord]

27 minutes ago, TN26 said:

Some  members need to find other interests to compliment their interest in the weather.

Surely the likelihood of snow should not be  a main driver in their lives.?

Very sad.

 

I find this a little unfair. Snow is probably the main driver for their reasons to visit and comment on this forum and for following the weather. Things like family and health and generally attempting to enjoy things are probably the main driver for their lives.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

46 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

one thing that I am still scratching my head about is how quickly the AO/NAO forecasts seemed to have turned around. It only seems a few days ago (in reality it's probably much longer - this happens all the time as I get older)  that I was reading with excitement posts showing the AO "tanking" and how it was off the scale, nothing like it since 2010... and now it's forecast to go positive again?

I guess I just thought these "broader scale" patterns were likely to be more stable. But then are they just composites of the model output anyway?

AO and NAO are not in themselves global patterns such AAM, MJO etc.; as I understand it, they are purely measures of short-term synoptics, hence why they can shift more rapidly.

Edited January 12, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Lake District Blizzards]

@karlos1983  

Surely we are still a long way off any agreed cold weather

bbc weather showing south westerly winds on Wednesday which is backed up by both the gfs and the ukmo 

after that on both models its looks as though Atlantic low pressure nudges through the door as the high sinks south

Quote

The BBC nor any weather Model is showing s'westerlies next Wednesday as we know it.

 

Take a look at the forecast for Poole for Wednesday, brisk sw'ly winds and looking rather mild. 

3 day cold spell for the north only id say. couple of sharp frosts if there's some lying snow

[stewfox]

1 hour ago, TN26 said:

Some  members need to find other interests to compliment their interest in the weather.

Surely the likelihood of snow should not be  a main driver in their lives.?

Very sad.

 

Some folk call it light hearted banter and in between they have had kids ,home morgage, job gf ,bf etc  etc

[mushymanrob]

2 hours ago, snowblizzard said:

I think we just need to accept that there's no real severe cold & snowy weather on the cards for UK!

And, it's unlikely that with the recent set-up we will see anything different through the rest of January or February.

But, I bet we get a freezing cold Spring!

 

well i wouldnt write things off so quickly. of course a lot depends upon whether the ops (mild southwesterlies) or the anomalies (remain under cold high pressure) are correct. IF the less reliable ops are right - then yes it doesnt look too good for the rest of winter (as as we have seen, a southwesterly flow/long wave pattern usually lasts some time) . BUT if the anomaly charts are correct, then theres every chance of a proper cold evolution - the high could easily end up over scandinavia.

but yep, i expect more frosts in march then we had in december.

1 hour ago, snow freak said:

 

changed mind

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by mushymanrob

[knocker]

1 hour ago, Certain kind of fool said:

one thing that I am still scratching my head about is how quickly the AO/NAO forecasts seemed to have turned around. It only seems a few days ago (in reality it's probably much longer - this happens all the time as I get older)  that I was reading with excitement posts showing the AO "tanking" and how it was off the scale, nothing like it since 2010... and now it's forecast to go positive again?

I guess I just thought these "broader scale" patterns were likely to be more stable. But then are they just composites of the model output anyway?

The AO and NAO are defined by surface atmospheric pressure patterns. The latter changes so thus the former does. It's a cart and horse scenario.

The ecm has them both going positive in about a week. Ha

Edited January 12, 2016 by knocker

[10 Days Away]

1 hour ago, Gord said:

I find this a little unfair. Snow is probably the main driver for their reasons to visit and comment on this forum and for following the weather. Things like family and health and generally attempting to enjoy things are probably the main driver for their lives.

 

32 minutes ago, stewfox said:

Some folk call it light hearted banter and in between they have had kids ,home morgage, job gf ,bf etc  etc

That's why I used the prefix 'Some' .  With hindsight perhaps ' A few' would have been more accurate.

 

I wasn't having a go at the vast majority of members but the few that rely on every upgrade and downgrade as a trigger for their elation or despair. 

 

[knocker]

The presses are rolling once again in the other thread. It's like watching repeated acts of self flagellation.